base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 defined-risk opportunity; +1 spot below max pain; -1 trending GEX; -1 high absolute risk
Term structure: Steeply upward sloping from 52% (1d) to ~69% (30-45 DTE). Peak around May/Jun expirations.
Spot vs MP: Spot $15.89 is 6.6% below max pain of $17.00
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$20.0M — negative, pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Estimated ~$15. Major put OI at $15/$16. Below $15, negative GEX could accelerate moves lower.
OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $19 (91K OI), $22 (89K OI). Major Put Walls: $16 (72K OI), $15 (72K OI).
#1put spread
Sell $15.50 / $14.00 Put Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (29 DTE)
IV is extremely high (64% for this expiry). Strike selection is below current spot but above the critical $15 gamma flip. The $14 put has high unusual volume (2.4x). Max pain for this expiry is $18, providing a buffer. Defined risk in a high-vol, trending name.
Mgmt: Close at 50-65% max profit. Exit if SOFI closes below $15.25. Roll down/out only for a credit if challenged.
#2iron condor
Sell $14.50 Put / Buy $13.50 Put & Sell $17.50 Call / Buy $18.50 Call, exp 2026-05-01 (36 DTE)
Captures high IV (69% ATM) across both sides. Wings are placed outside the 1-SD expected move ($13.10 - $18.68). Call side is below the massive $19 call wall. Put side is below the $15 OI support. Defined risk suits the trending GEX environment.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently if one side is tested. Close if spot breaches a short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $15.00 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (50 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own SOFI. Targets the largest put OI strike (71,595 contracts), which may act as a magnet for support. Collects very high premium (~8.7% ROC on capital) due to 68% IV. Breakeven is 12.5% below spot.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is ITM at 21 DTE. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared for assignment if price stays below $15.
#4call credit spread
Sell $17.00 / Buy $18.00 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-10 (15 DTE)
Spot is well below the $17 max pain for near-term expiries. The $17 strike saw net positive premium flow ($408K). This is a short-delta hedge against a rally in a trending (negative GEX) environment. High IV (62%) for a weekly.
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit (fast theta decay). Exit if SOFI closes above $16.75.
!GEX is NEGATIVE (-$20M) — This is a TRENDING, not pinning, regime. Moves can accelerate, especially below the ~$15 gamma flip.
!Spot ($15.89) is significantly BELOW near-term max pain ($17). This suggests underlying weakness but also a potential gravitational pull higher toward pain.
!Extreme IV (79%) means IV crush is a potential tailwind, but it also reflects high fundamental/event risk. Be wary of binary events.
!Massive Open Interest at $15/$16 Puts and $19/$22 Calls. These are strong magnets that may dictate short-term price action.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM calls (e.g., $9 call @ 189% IV) and puts — monitor for volatility sparks.
!No upcoming earnings noted in data, but always verify independently before selling premium.