Term structure: Backwardation in near-term (61-62% for 2-30 DTE), hump at 37-51 DTE (66-67%), then flattening. Calendar spreads could work selling May and buying April.
Spot vs MP: At max pain $17 (spot $17.12) — perfect alignment
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (+$70.4M GEX — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$16.00 — Below $16, negative gamma accelerates selling pressure
OI concentrations: Massive $19C (91,616 OI) and $16P (71,360 OI) walls. $15P (68,512 OI) secondary support.
#1CSP
Sell 16P 4/24 (30 DTE)
Massive $16P OI wall (71,360 contracts) creates strong support. 30 DTE captures high IV (62%) while avoiding May IV peak. $0.75 credit = 4.7% ROI in 30 days. Gamma flip at $16 provides natural buffer.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max profit (~$0.38). Roll at 21 DTE if challenged. Stop loss if breaks below $15.50 with conviction.
#2put spread
Sell 16P / Buy 15P 4/24 (30 DTE)
Defined risk version of CSP #1. Captures $16P support with $15P backup (68,512 OI). $0.40 credit = 61.5% ROI on risk. Perfect for conservative accounts in high IV environment.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit (~$0.20). Let expire worthless if above $16. No roll needed — defined risk.
#3iron condor
Sell 15P/16P & 19C/20C 4/24 (30 DTE)
Capitalizes on both $16P support and $19C resistance (91,616 OI). Expected move ±$2.45 gives $14.68-$19.57 range — condor sits comfortably inside. $0.80 credit = 266% ROI on risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit (~$0.40). Manage wings separately if one side challenged. Close entire position if spot breaches $15.50 or $18.50.
#4calendar spread
Sell 17C 5/1 / Buy 17C 4/24
Exploits IV term structure: sell May (67% IV) vs buy April (62% IV). Max pain at $17 across expirations creates ideal pinning zone. Captures theta decay differential with minimal directional risk.
Mgmt: Close when front month decays significantly (7-10 DTE). Roll if spot moves >$0.50 from $17. Max loss limited to debit paid.
!Earnings date unknown — verify before selling through any earnings period. Never sell naked options through earnings in high IV names.
!Ex-dividend dates: SOFI doesn't pay dividends, so no early assignment risk from dividends.
!Gamma flip at $16 — below this level, negative gamma accelerates selling pressure. Be prepared to defend or exit put positions if $16 breaks with conviction.
!Massive $19C wall (91,616 OI) creates strong resistance — credit call spreads above $19 have favorable odds but watch for breakout attempts.
!Unusual activity in June $6P (116.8% IV) and July $6C (128.1% IV) suggests some speculative long-dated positioning — monitor for volatility spillover.