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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $137.15EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.20

3.1% from close

Price Gap

-3.15

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight bearish tilt, gravitating toward the $145-$150 max pain cluster. Confidence: 5.5/10. The regime is a tug-of-war between strong pinning mechanics and persistent, massive bearish flow.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict (GEX +$25.8M vs Net Prem -$307M); +0.5 spot 1.0% from MP.

Supports: GEX +$25.8M (pinning), DEX +80.9M shares (dealer long delta), Max Pain cluster $145-$150.
Conflicts: Net Premium -$307M (strongly bearish), P/C OI 1.10 (put-heavy), massive deep-ITM put OI at $30-$50.

⚠️Net premium flow -$307M is a dominant bearish institutional signal.

📌Multi-expiry max pain pins between $145-$150 create a strong gravitational zone.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 59.5% is extremely high, creating a premium seller's market, but earnings vol is priced into May.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$25.8M, but the gamma flip at ~$50 is irrelevant; pinning is driven by max pain, not near-spot gamma.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium -$307M is bearish, but P/C vol 0.84 is neutral; dominated by massive deep-ITM put flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $148.46 is between near-term max pain levels ($145, $147, $150), within the pinning zone.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $145-$150 cluster across April and May expirations. The high-IV, pinning regime and structural put floor are not event-specific to one expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$140.61$156.31

EM bounds $140.61-$156.31. Upside capped by $155 call wall; downside supported by pinning gravity.

Next 2 weeks

$137.26$159.66

Wider EM $137.26-$159.66. Downside favored by net bearish flow; break below $140 targets $130 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $150 (2026-03-27); $145 (2026-04-02); $147 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $140.61/$156.31

Support: $50.00 · $30.00 · $120.00

Resistance: $155.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$50.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 62,349

Structural: **Call OI wall at $155** is primary near-term resistance. **Put OI floors at $120 and $130** provide intermediate support. The **massive $30-$50 put OI (62k+ contracts)** is a structural, far-OTM hedge anchoring long-term downside.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+25.8M

DEX: +80.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$50 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 62,349)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip at ~$50 is irrelevant for spot. Dealer long delta (DEX +80.9M shares) from deep-ITM puts means they are structurally long and will sell spot on rallies to hedge, adding to overhead resistance.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 59.5% is extremely elevated, favoring premium sellers.

Term structure: Steep near-term: 45.6% (8d) → 47.3% (15d) → spikes to 57.7% (36d) at May expirations (earnings 5/4). Clear kink prices in event vol.

Skew: The ~12 vol-pt differential between 4/10 (45.6%) and 5/8 (57.7%) IV supports calendar spreads selling the higher-IV May expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$307M bearish; P/C vol 0.84 (neutral), P/C OI 1.10 (put-heavy).

Directional prints: $145C 4/10: $7.6M net premium (likely bought calls for upside). $150C 4/10: $5.9M net premium (likely bought calls). $320P 6/18: 12k vol vs 700 OI — massive far-OTM flow, could be bought for tail hedge or sold for lottery premium.

Unusual: $320P 6/18: Vol 12,000 vs OI 700 (17x) at IV 77.3% — extreme OTM speculation or complex hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Earnings catalyst (est. 5/4)**: IV spike in May expirations (57.7%) creates vol crush risk post-event.

!**Break of $140.61 (1w EM low)**: Could trigger acceleration toward $130-$120 put OI support.

!**Massive net bearish premium flow (-$307M)**: A persistent institutional headwind.

!**Dealer long delta hedge**: Rally toward $155 will be met with dealer selling, capping upside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell $140/$135 put spread & $150/$155 call spread, 4/17 expiry. Maps to 1w EM bounds and key OI.	High IV (47%) and GEX positive support, but net bearish flow adds directional risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $140 put or $140/$135 put spread, 4/17 expiry. At support, high IV, max pain gravity.	Break below $137.26 (2w EM low).
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $150 or $155 call, 4/17 or 5/1 expiry. Targets resistance, collects high premium.	Capped upside; stock decline.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $145 put / sell $140 put, 4/10 expiry. Aligns with net bearish flow and spot below some MP.	High IV cost; pinning to $145.
Long calls	Weak	Not favored. High IV cost, call wall at $155, negative net premium flow.	Vol crush, directional headwinds.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/8 $150 call (57.7% IV), buy 6/18 $152.5 call (53.9% IV). Reverse calendar, capitalizes on earnings IV kink.	Spot rallies above $150 quickly pre-earnings.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $110 call (55.5% IV), sell monthly ~$150 calls against it. Leverages structural range, high IV for premium.	Long-dated IV still high; capital intensive.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Direct short or via ITM puts. Aligns with net bearish flow but fights positive GEX pinning and dealer long delta.	Pinning to $145-$150 range.
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	With a tight stop below $140. Benefits from pinning upward drift but faces dealer selling overhead and negative flow.	Break below support.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $140/$135 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on extremely high IV and pinning gravity toward $145. Defined risk below the 1-week EM low.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $138.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $138.50.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection in a high-vol, range-bound name.

Reverse Call Calendar (Earnings Vol)

Sell 5/8 $150 Call, Buy 6/18 $152.5 Call.

Exploits the ~4 vol-pt differential from the earnings IV kink in May. Benefits from vol crush post-earnings if spot stays below $150.

Credit: $0.80-$1.10

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; ideal: spot below $150 at 5/8 expiry, then vol crushes.

Mgmt: Close before 5/8 expiry if challenged. Manage long leg as a directional call if thesis changes post-earnings.

Vol traders comfortable with negative delta, looking to express a "high near-term vol will collapse" view.

LEAPS Diagonal (Financed Long)

Buy Jan 2027 $110 Call, Sell May 2026 $150 Call.

The 30+ DTE long leg captures the structural range ($110 floor, $155 ceiling) at relatively stable IV. The short call targets the $150 resistance and high earnings premium. The extra time provides durability against near-term pinning noise and allows multiple premium cycles, improving risk/reward versus a near-term long call.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: Cost of LEAPS minus net credit

BE: LEAPS breakeven reduced by net credits received.

Mgmt: Roll short call up and out if challenged. Consider closing before May earnings vol crush.

Investors with a neutral-to-bullish multi-month view, seeking to finance a long-term position via high call premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot declines to $142.00 (near 1w EM low) and bounces. → Sell $142/$135 put spread, 4/10 expiry.

IFSpot rallies to test $149.50 (upper 1w EM bound) and fails. → Enter reverse call calendar: Sell 4/10 $150 Call, Buy 4/17 $152.5 Call.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $155 (call OI wall). → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, covered calls).

EXITVIX equivalent drops >10 points (vol crush) while spot is stable. → Take profits on all short premium strategies.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-vol pinning within $140-$155, gravitating toward $145-$150 max pain, with a structural floor from massive deep-ITM puts. The regime favors selling premium (high IV) with a slight bearish tilt (negative net flow). Top plays: 1) $140/$135 put spread (4/17) for defined-risk range trade; 2) Reverse $150 call calendar to play the earnings vol kink; 3) LEAPS diagonal for a longer-duration, finance-a-long position. Invalidation: a sustained break below $140.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.