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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $137.15EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.20

3.1% from close

Price Gap

-3.15

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward the $145-$147 max pain cluster. Confidence: 5/10. The regime is dominated by a massive, deep-ITM put wall that creates a structural floor but also a negative net premium flow, conflicting with the positive GEX.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict (GEX +$38M vs Net Prem -$316M); -1 P/C vol ratio >1 (1.17).

Supports: GEX +$38.4M (pinning), Max Pain cluster $145-$147, DEX +85.4M shares (dealer long delta).
Conflicts: Net Premium -$316M (bearish), P/C Volume 1.17 (put-heavy), massive deep-ITM put OI at $30-$50.

⚠️Massive $30-$50 put OI (62k+ contracts) creates a structural floor but signals long-term hedging.

📉Net premium flow -$316M is a strong bearish institutional signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 59.5% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers, but the term structure is steep near-term.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$38.4M, but the gamma flip at ~$50 is irrelevant for spot; pinning is driven by near-term max pain, not gamma.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium -$316M is bearish, but P/C OI ratio 1.05 is neutral; dominated by massive deep-ITM put flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $146.28 is between near-term max pain levels ($145, $147, $150), creating a multi-expiry pinning zone.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $145-$150 cluster across April and May expirations, and the high-IV, pinning regime is not event-specific to one expiry. The structural put floor suggests a longer-term defined range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$142.70$149.85

EM bounds $142.70-$149.85. Break below $142.70 targets $140; break above $149.85 targets $155.

Next 1 week

$137.28$155.28

Wider EM $137.28-$155.28. Downside favored by net premium flow; upside capped by $155 call wall.

Next 2 weeks

$134.13$158.43

Structural put floor ($30-$130 OI) and call wall ($155) define the broader range.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $150 (2026-03-27); $145 (2026-04-02); $147 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $142.70/$149.85; 1w $137.28/$155.28

Support: $50.00 · $30.00 · $120.00

Resistance: $155.00 · $150.00 · $155.00

Gamma flip: ~$50.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 62,521

Structural: **Call OI wall at $155** is the primary near-term resistance. **Put OI floors at $120 and $130** provide intermediate support, but the **massive $30-$50 put OI (62k+ contracts)** is a structural, far-OTM hedge that acts as a long-term anchor.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+38.4M

DEX: +85.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$50 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 62,521)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip at ~$50 is irrelevant for spot trading. Dealer long delta (DEX +85.4M shares) from deep-ITM puts means they are structurally long and will sell spot on rallies to hedge, adding to resistance.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 59.5% is extremely elevated (no VIX given, but contextually high). This is a premium seller's market.

Term structure: Steep near-term: 41.9% (2d) → 49.0% (17d) → spikes to 58.9% (38d) around May expirations (earnings 5/4). Kink at May expirations prices in event vol.

Skew: The ~17 vol-pt differential between 2-day (41.9%) and 17-day (49.0%) IV supports short-dated calendar spreads (sell near, buy far).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$316M bearish; P/C vol 1.17 (put-heavy), P/C OI 1.05 (balanced).

Directional prints: $142-$148P 4/2 volume surge (7.5k-16.7k) vs OI — could be bought puts for protection or sold puts for premium. $149C 4/2 & 4/10 volume (9k, 6k) vs OI — likely sold calls against the $155 wall. The $320P 6/18 (12k vol) is a massive, far-OTM hedge (bought or sold?).

Unusual: $80P 4/10: 3.6k vol at 115.6% IV — extreme OTM speculation or complex spread leg.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Earnings catalyst (est. 5/4)**: IV spike in May expirations (58.9%) creates vol crush risk post-event.

!**Break of $142.70 (2d EM low)**: Could trigger acceleration toward $130-$120 put OI support.

!**Gamma pin release at weekly expirations**: Could increase volatility within the broader range.

!**Dealer long delta hedge**: Rally toward $155 will be met with dealer selling.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell $140/$135 put spread & $150/$155 call spread, 4/17 expiry. Maps to 1w EM bounds and key OI.	High IV (49%) and GEX positive support, but net bearish flow and P/C vol >1 add directional risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $140 put or $140/$135 put spread, 4/17 expiry. At support, high IV, max pain gravity.	Break below $137.28 (1w EM low).
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $150 or $155 call, 4/17 or 5/1 expiry. Targets resistance, collects high premium.	Capped upside; stock decline.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $145 put / sell $140 put, 4/10 expiry. Aligns with net bearish flow and spot below some MP.	High IV cost; pinning to $145.
Long calls	Weak	Not favored. High IV cost, call wall at $155, negative net premium flow.	Vol crush, directional headwinds.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/2 $148 call (41.9% IV), buy 4/17 $150 call (49.0% IV). Reverse calendar, bearish bias, capitalizes on IV differential.	Spot rallies above $148 quickly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $110 call (55.8% IV), sell monthly ~$150 calls against it. Leverages structural range, high IV for premium.	Long-dated IV still high; capital intensive.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Direct short or via ITM puts. Aligns with net bearish flow but fights positive GEX pinning and dealer long delta.	Pinning to $145-$147 range.
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	With a tight stop. Benefits from pinning upward drift but faces dealer selling overhead and negative flow.	Break below support.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $140/$135 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on high IV, pinning toward $145, and defined support at $140 (near 1w EM low). Positive GEX supports range-bound price action.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $138.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $138.50.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection in a high-vol, range-bound name.

Reverse Call Calendar (Vol Trade)

Sell 4/2 $148 Call, Buy 4/17 $150 Call.

Exploits the steep near-term IV gradient (sell 41.9%, buy 49.0%) with a bearish bias. Benefits from time decay on the short weekly and a pin below $148.

Credit: $0.45-$0.60

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; ideal: spot near $148 at 4/2 expiry, then rallies.

Mgmt: Close short leg before 4/2 expiry if spot >$149. Manage long leg as a directional call if thesis changes.

Vol traders comfortable with negative delta, looking to express a "pin with high longer-dated vol" view.

LEAPS Diagonal (PMCC)

Buy Jan 2027 $110 Call, Sell May 2026 $150 Call.

The 30+ DTE long leg captures the structural range ($110 floor, $155 ceiling) at relatively lower IV than near-term spikes. The short call targets the persistent $150 resistance and earnings vol. The extra time provides durability against near-term pinning noise and allows multiple premium cycles.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: Cost of LEAPS minus net credit

BE: LEAPS breakeven reduced by net credits received.

Mgmt: Roll short call up and out if challenged. Consider closing before May earnings vol crush.

Investors with a neutral-to-bullish multi-month view, seeking to finance a long-term position via high call premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to test $149.50 (upper 2d EM bound) and fails. → Enter reverse call calendar: Sell 4/2 $150 Call, Buy 4/17 $152.5 Call.

IFSpot declines to $142.00 (near 2d EM low) and bounces. → Sell $142/$137 put spread, 4/10 expiry.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $155 (call OI wall). → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, covered calls).

EXITVIX equivalent drops >10 points (vol crush) while spot is stable. → Take profits on all short premium strategies.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-vol pinning within $142-$150, gravitating toward $145-$147 max pain, with a structural floor from massive deep-ITM puts. The regime favors selling premium (high IV) with a slight bearish tilt (negative net flow). Top plays: 1) $140/$135 put spread (4/17) for defined-risk range trade; 2) Reverse $148 call calendar for vol differential play; 3) LEAPS diagonal for a longer-duration, finance-a-long position. Invalidation: a sustained break below $142.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.