base 5; +2 high IV; -1.5 trending GEX intensified; -0.5 bearish flow persists; +0.5 defined-risk preference
Term structure: Humped at 4/24 (63.2%), elevated across curve
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 5.6% (spot $102.00 vs MP $108)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$9.2M — pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Below $90, dealers amplify moves downward
OI concentrations: Major put walls at $90 (10.8K OI), $100 (10.8K OI), $85 (10.2K OI). Call wall at $125 (7.9K OI).
#1put spread
Sell $100/$95 put spread 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
High IV (60.0% for 5/15) provides rich credit. Strike sits directly on the major $100 put wall (10,780 OI). 43 DTE is optimal for theta decay. Defined risk is essential given the strongly trending GEX regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll down/out if $100 is tested. Exit if spot closes below $98 (breakeven).
#2put spread
Sell $90/$85 put spread 2026-06-18 (77 DTE)
Largest OI concentration at $90 (10,806) provides the strongest support on the chain. 77 DTE allows ample time for recovery if tested. High IV (56.6%) for this expiration. Positioned just above the critical $90 gamma flip level.
Mgmt: Close at 60% profit. Defend by rolling out in time if $90 is breached. Exit on a daily close below $88.
#3iron condor
Sell $95/$90P x $115/$120C 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
Captures high IV across both sides. Wide range ($95-$115) is within the 43 DTE expected move (±$16.65). Puts are anchored below OI support ($100), calls are well below the major $125 call wall. Defined risk suits the volatile environment.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently; roll the tested side. Exit if spot breaches $93 or $117.
#4covered call
Sell $115 call 2026-04-24 (22 DTE) against long stock
For existing shareholders only. Peak IV (63.2% for 4/24) offers exceptional premium. Strike is 12.7% OTM and below the major $125 call wall. Provides a 10%+ upside to $115.
Mgmt: Roll up/out if call is tested. Close at 80% profit if IV collapses. Let shares be called if above $115 at expiry.
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-22 — CLOSE all short premium positions before announcement. Never sell naked through earnings.
!Trending GEX regime has INTENSIFIED (GEX -$9.2M vs -$0.6M) — dealers now strongly amplify moves, increasing risk of swift breaks through support/resistance.
!Bearish flow persists (Net prem -$76.4M, P/C 1.29) suggesting institutional put buying; respect the directional pressure.
!Gamma flip ~$90 — a break below this level could lead to accelerated selling. This is the key invalidation.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM June $178/$174 puts — may indicate tail-risk hedging; ensure your positions are defined risk.
!Spot has declined to $102, moving further below max pain ($108). The path of least resistance remains downward toward OI support.