base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Steep near‑term skew and rich 0–7d expiries; term structure flattens after 2–4 weeks
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+22.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$85.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,763 (12.1% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated at 95/91/85; gamma flip area ~85 (~12% below spot ≈97)
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $95.00/$92.00 put wing and $100.00/$104.00 call wing
Sell 95/92 put wing and 100/104 call wing 2026-05-15 to collect elevated premium while capping risk.
Mgmt: Enter within quoted range; trim/roll or close if price pierces wings or VIX>25; close 48–72h before expiry to limit assignment.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-08 $95.00/$92.00 put spread
Sell 95/92 put spread 2026-05-08 to sell elevated post-earnings premium with defined risk.
Mgmt: Target entry per range; avoid if price < $95 or VIX spikes; close/roll 48–72h pre-expiry to reduce assignment risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
!Sudden gap‑down below $84
!VIX jump >25
!Dealer GEX swings negative or rapid unwind of concentrated OI
!Elevated early‑assignment risk last 48–72h
!Margin requirements spike for uncovered short positions