base 6.0 (precomputed); +1 high IV (Avg IV 73.1%); -1 negative GEX (-$14.3M) trending; -0.0 earnings risk noted
Term structure: Steep front-mid curve: 7d ATM 62.6% → 14d 87.7% (kink) → 21-42d 80.4%→69d 65.9%; short-dated vols are rich and mid-dates spike (opportunities for calendar and 30-45 DTE sells)
Spot vs MP: Spot $83.00 is below max pain short-term ($101 on 2026-04-10; MP trend rising). Current spot is 17.8% below MP as noted in confidence base.
GEX regime: Trending / breakout accelerant (Total GEX -$14.3M) — dealers are net negative gamma which amplifies directional moves
OI concentrations: Large put OI at $85 (13,734 and 10,480 entries), $90 put (10,751); call OI wall $100-$120 (structural). Net premium flow concentrated on puts at $85 ($29.2M) — downside interest
#1put spread (defined-risk)
Sell 85/80 put spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
85 put has the largest OI concentration (13,734 & 10,480) and heavy put flow into $85. IV is elevated (Avg IV 73.1%, May15 ATM 72.3%), so selling a defined 5-wide put spread captures rich premium while capping downside. The put wall at $85 creates a short-term magnet for premium; using spread reduces assignment / tail risk given negative GEX
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit; roll down and out if price tests short strike with <14 days (roll to higher debit or widen to maintain defined risk); cut losses if 85 short is filled and underlying closes below $76.97 (1-week EM lower) or if spread mark exceeds 70% of max loss
#2cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell 75 put 2026-05-15 (35 DTE) cash-secured
75 put sits near the 1-week EM lower bound ($76.97) and there is seen flow/interest in $75 (unusual activity & meaningful IV). CSP at 75 offers attractive yield vs risk with high IV; best if you want to accumulate stock at a discount with defined allocation (cash-secured).
Mgmt: Close or roll if underlying closes below $76.97 (week EM lower) or if mark-to-market reaches 50-65% of debit required to buy stock; take profits at 40-60% of max premium collected; do NOT hold through earnings (see risk alerts)
#3iron condor (defined-risk wings)
Sell 80/75 put spread + sell 95/100 call spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Front-month expected move (35d) is wide but IV elevated; sell balanced wings inside EM bounds: put side sits close to one-week lower EM (~$76.97) and call side stays well below structural call OI wall ($100). Defined risk iron condor captures theta while limiting tail exposure in a negative GEX environment.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; tighten or roll the tested wing if underlying trades within 1.5% of a short strike; exit entire condor if underlying closes beyond the wing's bought strike ($75 or $100) or if IV collapses >15 vol points
#4calendar (vol-timing play)
Sell 2026-04-24 85 put (14 DTE) and buy 2026-05-15 85 put (35 DTE) — 85 put calendar
14d ATM IV is 87.7% and 35d is 72.3% — short-dated vol is relatively richer (kink at 14d). Calendar collects short decay while keeping directional exposure limited. Use when you expect rangebound action into the short expiry but want to keep downside protection vs selling near-term naked puts.
Mgmt: Target 40-60% of debit as profit on calendar; roll short leg if price moves >2% and short leg daily theta falls below expectation; exit before earnings (see alerts)
!Earnings 2026-04-22 (within 2 weeks) — avoid selling naked premium through the print; prefer defined-risk or close/roll prior to announcement
!Total GEX -$14.3M (Trending) — dealers negative gamma can accelerate moves and spike intraday vol; prefer spreads over naked positions
!Large put flow and OI concentration at $85 (largest put OI) — downside tail risk if sellers of protection unwind or buyers force moves
!EM guardrails tight: 1-week expected move $76.97 - $89.03 — breaches of these bounds would require active management (roll or hedge)
!High front/mid IV kink (14d ATM 87.7%) — short-dated defined-risk sells okay, but weekly naked shorts are risky; consider weeklies only for defined-risk spreads