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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.09EOD only

Max Pain

$89.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.90

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+0.91

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.79

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime, though spot is now 5.4% above nearest max pain ($93). Confidence: 7/10. Positive GEX ($188.2M) and DEX (+141.1M shares) remain powerful magnets, reinforced by net bullish premium flow (+$60.1M). The primary conflict is the spot's distance from MP and a mixed P/C volume ratio, but the structural forces are overwhelmingly supportive.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.2% from MP. No override—mechanical score correctly captures the powerful bullish pinning against the gravitational pull from above MP.

Supports: GEX +$188.2M (extreme pinning), DEX +141.1M shares (dealer long), net premium +$60.1M (bullish), rising max pain ladder ($92→$95)
Conflicts: Spot $98.66 is 5.4% above nearest MP $93; P/C Volume Ratio 1.07 suggests balanced near-term flow.

📊GEX pinning remains extreme at +$188M, a massive stabilizing force.

📈Spot rallied to $98.66, now testing the 1-week EM high ($102.05).

🎯Max pain ladder trends upward ($92→$95), creating a bullish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 48.0% — extremely rich, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$188.2M concentrated near spot — extreme pinning force that intensifies with spot moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$60.1M bullish, but P/C vol 1.07 is mixed — legacy low-strike put positions overlay bullish call flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $98.66 above nearest MP $93.00 — pin may drift down slightly, but GEX dominance is primary.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward across near expiries ($92→$95), GEX sign is strongly positive and stable, and bullish net premium flow is consistent. The supportive structure persists beyond a single expiry, with the next key event being earnings ~4/16.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$95.27$102.05

GEX pin dominates; a break above $102.05 (1w EM high) targets $105 OI wall. Failure below $95.27 (1w EM low) suggests drift to $93 MP.

Next 2 weeks

$90.86$106.46

Pin release after 4/10 expiry; bullish flow and rising MP ladder support a move higher toward the $105 OI wall. $90.86 (2w EM low) is key support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $92 (2026-03-27); $93 (2026-04-02); $94 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $95.27/$102.05

Support: $5.00 · $1.50 · $2.00

Resistance: $105.00 · $125.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,389

Structural: **Call OI walls at $100, $105, $125** are significant upside caps. The **put 'floor' at $2-$73** is legacy/financing OI and provides no meaningful support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+188.2M

DEX: +141.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$5 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,389)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$5 is irrelevant; all meaningful gamma is concentrated near current spot. Dealers are massively long gamma and delta (DEX +141.1M shares) — they hedge by selling into rallies and buying dips, reinforcing the pin. A +2% move to ~$100.65 triggers dealer delta selling; a -2% move to ~$96.70 triggers dealer delta buying.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 48.0% — extremely rich vs any broad market measure, creating strong edge for premium sellers.

Term structure: **Humped** — IV peaks at 49.4% for 4/17 expiry (15 DTE, earnings week), then declines. This is the 'higher-IV' expiry for calendar spreads.

Skew: IV ~11 vol points richer in April (49.4%) vs June (38.0%) — supports reverse calendar spreads selling April, buying longer-dated.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$60.1M bullish; P/C vol 1.07, P/C OI 0.94

Directional prints: $100C shows +$7.3M net premium (near key resistance, likely bought calls for breakout or sold for covered writes; bought aligns with bullish flow). $98C 4/10 vol 15,375 vs OI 3,504 (4.4x) — could be bought (bullish breakout) or sold (resistance play); bought is more consistent with bullish regime.

Unusual: Massive premium in deep ITM calls ($15, $10, $45) totaling over $17M — institutional bullish positioning or financing.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings expected ~4/16 creates an event kink (IV 49.4% for 4/17), leading to potential vol crush post-event.

!Spot closing above $100 could trigger dealer delta hedging (selling) against the massive call OI wall.

!High IV (48.0%) implies large mark-to-market swings for short premium positions.

!Distance from MP ($93) creates gravitational pull lower, conflicting with bullish GEX.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $98.66	IV crush and pin-bound range limit upside; defined-risk alternatives may offer better R/R.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Contra-trend to extreme bullish GEX/flow; only on a decisive break below $90.86.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $100C 4/17 (15 DTE) or $102C 4/10 (8 DTE)	Capped upside if breakout occurs; best to monetize high IV.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $95/$90 put spread 4/17 (15 DTE) or sell $95P 4/17	Break below pin and key support at $90.86 (2w EM low).
Long calls / call spread	Moderate	Buy $98/$103 call spread 4/10 (8 DTE)	IV crush and pin-bound range; use spreads to offset high IV cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	N/A	Fighting powerful bullish pinning regime; only for hedging.
Iron condor	Moderate	$92/$90P x $103/$105C 4/17 (15 DTE). GEX positive, but VIX proxy >28 (IV 48.0%) per threshold = Moderate.	Wings could be tested if pin breaks; defined risk but elevated vol increases premium.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $99C 4/17 (49.4% IV), buy $99C 6/18 (38.0% IV) — reverse calendar for bullish pin/vol decay.	Spot moves away from short strike, hurting theta harvest.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $85C Jan 2027 (~38.9% IV), sell $100C against it monthly.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $95/$90 put spread, exp 4/17 (15 DTE)

Capitalizes on extreme IV and the bullish pinning regime with defined risk. Strikes are below the 2-week expected move low ($90.86) and the nearest max pain ($93), providing a significant buffer. The 15 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis and captures peak IV in the term structure (earnings week).

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: $3.80

BE: $93.80

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit (close for ~$0.55). Exit if spot closes below $90.86 (2w EM low).

Traders seeking defined-risk, high-IV premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Calendar Call

Sell $99 Call 4/17, Buy $99 Call 6/18

Exploits the ~11 vol-point differential between the humped April expiry (49.4% IV) and flatter June expiry (38.0% IV). Benefits from vol decay and pinning at/under $99. The longer DTE on the long leg provides duration to manage if the pin breaks or if spot rallies post-earnings, making it superior to a weekly sale.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush or spot move.

Mgmt: Close when April short expires or IV spread compresses by 50%. Exit if spot rallies decisively above $102 (above 1w EM high).

Volatility traders comfortable with undefined risk, aiming to harvest rich near-term vol ahead of earnings.

Covered Call (Tactical Overlay)

Own shares, sell the $100 Call 4/17 (15 DTE)

Monetizes extremely high IV while maintaining bullish exposure. Strike is at the key call OI wall and just below the 1-week expected move high ($102.05), offering a buffer and a clear resistance target. This 15 DTE overlay works within the multi-week bullish thesis, generating significant income against a core position.

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: Stock price minus credit received.

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $99. Close at 50-70% profit if IV collapses quickly post-earnings.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a high-vol, range-bound environment with a clear upside cap.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $95.27 (1-week EM low) and holds for 1 hour → Enter sell $95/$90 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $102.05 (1-week EM high) → Sell $102/$105 call spread 4/17 (selling into dealer hedging near resistance).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $90.86 (2-week EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITIV (Avg) drops below 40% → Take profits on all premium-selling strategies (put spreads, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Extreme GEX pinning ($188.2M) creates a powerful bullish, range-bound regime, favoring selling rich IV premium with a bullish skew. Invalidation is a close below $90.86. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk premium sale, 2) Reverse calendar to harvest rich near-term vol ahead of earnings, 3) Covered call for shareholders. The regime strongly favors selling options (puts > calls) until IV collapses or the pin breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.