NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime, though spot is now 5.4% above nearest max pain ($93). Confidence: 7/10. Positive GEX ($188.2M) and DEX (+141.1M shares) remain powerful magnets, reinforced by net bullish premium flow (+$60.1M). The primary conflict is the spot's distance from MP and a mixed P/C volume ratio, but the structural forces are overwhelmingly supportive.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.2% from MP. No override—mechanical score correctly captures the powerful bullish pinning against the gravitational pull from above MP.

Supports: GEX +$188.2M (extreme pinning), DEX +141.1M shares (dealer long), net premium +$60.1M (bullish), rising max pain ladder ($92→$95)
Conflicts: Spot $98.66 is 5.4% above nearest MP $93; P/C Volume Ratio 1.07 suggests balanced near-term flow.

📊GEX pinning remains extreme at +$188M, a massive stabilizing force.

📈Spot rallied to $98.66, now testing the 1-week EM high ($102.05).

🎯Max pain ladder trends upward ($92→$95), creating a bullish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 48.0% — extremely rich, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$188.2M concentrated near spot — extreme pinning force that intensifies with spot moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$60.1M bullish, but P/C vol 1.07 is mixed — legacy low-strike put positions overlay bullish call flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $98.66 above nearest MP $93.00 — pin may drift down slightly, but GEX dominance is primary.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward across near expiries ($92→$95), GEX sign is strongly positive and stable, and bullish net premium flow is consistent. The supportive structure persists beyond a single expiry, with the next key event being earnings ~4/16.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$95.27$102.05

GEX pin dominates; a break above $102.05 (1w EM high) targets $105 OI wall. Failure below $95.27 (1w EM low) suggests drift to $93 MP.

Next 2 weeks

$90.86$106.46

Pin release after 4/10 expiry; bullish flow and rising MP ladder support a move higher toward the $105 OI wall. $90.86 (2w EM low) is key support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $92 (2026-03-27); $93 (2026-04-02); $94 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $95.27/$102.05

Support: $5.00 · $1.50 · $2.00

Resistance: $105.00 · $125.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,389

Structural: **Call OI walls at $100, $105, $125** are significant upside caps. The **put 'floor' at $2-$73** is legacy/financing OI and provides no meaningful support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+188.2M

DEX: +141.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$5 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,389)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$5 is irrelevant; all meaningful gamma is concentrated near current spot. Dealers are massively long gamma and delta (DEX +141.1M shares) — they hedge by selling into rallies and buying dips, reinforcing the pin. A +2% move to ~$100.65 triggers dealer delta selling; a -2% move to ~$96.70 triggers dealer delta buying.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 48.0% — extremely rich vs any broad market measure, creating strong edge for premium sellers.

Term structure: **Humped** — IV peaks at 49.4% for 4/17 expiry (15 DTE, earnings week), then declines. This is the 'higher-IV' expiry for calendar spreads.

Skew: IV ~11 vol points richer in April (49.4%) vs June (38.0%) — supports reverse calendar spreads selling April, buying longer-dated.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$60.1M bullish; P/C vol 1.07, P/C OI 0.94

Directional prints: $100C shows +$7.3M net premium (near key resistance, likely bought calls for breakout or sold for covered writes; bought aligns with bullish flow). $98C 4/10 vol 15,375 vs OI 3,504 (4.4x) — could be bought (bullish breakout) or sold (resistance play); bought is more consistent with bullish regime.

Unusual: Massive premium in deep ITM calls ($15, $10, $45) totaling over $17M — institutional bullish positioning or financing.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings expected ~4/16 creates an event kink (IV 49.4% for 4/17), leading to potential vol crush post-event.

!Spot closing above $100 could trigger dealer delta hedging (selling) against the massive call OI wall.

!High IV (48.0%) implies large mark-to-market swings for short premium positions.

!Distance from MP ($93) creates gravitational pull lower, conflicting with bullish GEX.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $98.66	IV crush and pin-bound range limit upside; defined-risk alternatives may offer better R/R.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Contra-trend to extreme bullish GEX/flow; only on a decisive break below $90.86.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $100C 4/17 (15 DTE) or $102C 4/10 (8 DTE)	Capped upside if breakout occurs; best to monetize high IV.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $95/$90 put spread 4/17 (15 DTE) or sell $95P 4/17	Break below pin and key support at $90.86 (2w EM low).
Long calls / call spread	Moderate	Buy $98/$103 call spread 4/10 (8 DTE)	IV crush and pin-bound range; use spreads to offset high IV cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	N/A	Fighting powerful bullish pinning regime; only for hedging.
Iron condor	Moderate	$92/$90P x $103/$105C 4/17 (15 DTE). GEX positive, but VIX proxy >28 (IV 48.0%) per threshold = Moderate.	Wings could be tested if pin breaks; defined risk but elevated vol increases premium.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $99C 4/17 (49.4% IV), buy $99C 6/18 (38.0% IV) — reverse calendar for bullish pin/vol decay.	Spot moves away from short strike, hurting theta harvest.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $85C Jan 2027 (~38.9% IV), sell $100C against it monthly.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $95/$90 put spread, exp 4/17 (15 DTE)

Capitalizes on extreme IV and the bullish pinning regime with defined risk. Strikes are below the 2-week expected move low ($90.86) and the nearest max pain ($93), providing a significant buffer. The 15 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis and captures peak IV in the term structure (earnings week).

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: $3.80

BE: $93.80

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit (close for ~$0.55). Exit if spot closes below $90.86 (2w EM low).

Traders seeking defined-risk, high-IV premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Calendar Call

Sell $99 Call 4/17, Buy $99 Call 6/18

Exploits the ~11 vol-point differential between the humped April expiry (49.4% IV) and flatter June expiry (38.0% IV). Benefits from vol decay and pinning at/under $99. The longer DTE on the long leg provides duration to manage if the pin breaks or if spot rallies post-earnings, making it superior to a weekly sale.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush or spot move.

Mgmt: Close when April short expires or IV spread compresses by 50%. Exit if spot rallies decisively above $102 (above 1w EM high).

Volatility traders comfortable with undefined risk, aiming to harvest rich near-term vol ahead of earnings.

Covered Call (Tactical Overlay)

Own shares, sell the $100 Call 4/17 (15 DTE)

Monetizes extremely high IV while maintaining bullish exposure. Strike is at the key call OI wall and just below the 1-week expected move high ($102.05), offering a buffer and a clear resistance target. This 15 DTE overlay works within the multi-week bullish thesis, generating significant income against a core position.

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: Stock price minus credit received.

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $99. Close at 50-70% profit if IV collapses quickly post-earnings.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a high-vol, range-bound environment with a clear upside cap.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $95.27 (1-week EM low) and holds for 1 hour → Enter sell $95/$90 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $102.05 (1-week EM high) → Sell $102/$105 call spread 4/17 (selling into dealer hedging near resistance).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $90.86 (2-week EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITIV (Avg) drops below 40% → Take profits on all premium-selling strategies (put spreads, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Extreme GEX pinning ($188.2M) creates a powerful bullish, range-bound regime, favoring selling rich IV premium with a bullish skew. Invalidation is a close below $90.86. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk premium sale, 2) Reverse calendar to harvest rich near-term vol ahead of earnings, 3) Covered call for shareholders. The regime strongly favors selling options (puts > calls) until IV collapses or the pin breaks.

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-02. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.