NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime, though spot is now 3.3% above nearest max pain. Confidence: 7.5/10. Positive GEX ($189.2M) and DEX (+134.9M shares) are even stronger magnets than before, reinforced by massive net bullish premium flow (+$116.4M). The primary conflict is the high P/C volume ratio (1.46), but net premium direction is overwhelmingly clear.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP. No override—mechanical score captures the powerful bullish forces, with the distance from MP being the only minor headwind.

Supports: GEX +$189.2M (extreme pinning), DEX +134.9M shares (dealer long), net premium +$116.4M (extremely bullish), rising max pain ladder ($92→$95)
Conflicts: P/C Volume Ratio 1.46 suggests put volume, but net premium is decisively bullish, indicating large, low-priced legacy puts are skewing the ratio.

📌GEX pinning intensified to +$189M, a massive force for stability.

💰Net premium flow +$116M is overwhelmingly bullish, dominated by deep ITM calls.

⚠️Spot $95 is above nearest MP $92, creating a slight gravitational pull lower.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 46.9% — rich, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$189.2M concentrated near spot — extreme pinning force that intensifies with spot moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$116.4M bullish, but P/C vol 1.46 is mixed — legacy low-strike put positions overlay massive bullish call flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $95.00 above nearest MP $92.00 — pin may drift down slightly, but GEX dominance is primary.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward across near expiries ($92→$95), GEX sign is strongly positive and growing, and bullish net premium flow is massive and consistent. The supportive structure persists beyond a single expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$92.65$97.35

GEX pin dominates but spot above MP suggests drift lower to EM low; <$92.65 targets $92 MP.

Next 2 weeks

$86.80$103.20

Pin release after 4/2 expiry; bullish flow and GEX support a grind higher toward 2-week EM high.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $92 (2026-03-27); $92 (2026-04-02); $93 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $92.65/$97.35

Support: $5.00 · $1.50 · $2.00

Resistance: $125.00 · $105.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 177,144

Structural: **Call OI walls at $100, $105, $125** are significant upside caps. The **put 'floor' at $2-$73** is legacy/financing OI and provides no meaningful support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+189.2M

DEX: +134.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$5 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 177,144)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$5 is irrelevant; all meaningful gamma is concentrated near current spot. Dealers are massively long gamma and delta (DEX +134.9M shares) — they hedge by selling into rallies and buying dips, reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 46.9% — extremely rich vs any broad market measure, creating strong edge for premium sellers.

Term structure: **Humped** — IV peaks at 49.0% for 4/17 expiry (18 DTE, earnings week), then declines. This is the 'higher-IV' expiry for calendar spreads.

Skew: IV ~8 vol points richer in April (49.0%) vs June (38.8%) — supports calendar spreads selling April, buying longer-dated.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$116.4M extremely bullish; P/C vol 1.46, P/C OI 0.94

Directional prints: $41C shows +$42.6M net premium (deep ITM, likely bought calls for leverage/delta). $95P 4/2 vol 5,969 vs OI 1,393 (4.3x) — could be sold puts (bullish) or bought protection; sold aligns with bullish flow.

Unusual: Massive premium in deep ITM calls ($31, $40, $41, $42) totaling over $90M — institutional bullish positioning or financing.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings expected ~4/16 creates an event kink (IV 49.0% for 4/17), leading to potential vol crush post-event.

!Spot closing above $100 could trigger dealer delta hedging (selling) against the massive call OI wall.

!High IV (46.9%) implies large mark-to-market swings for short premium positions.

!Gamma pin release at weekly expiries (4/2) could increase near-term volatility.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $95.00	IV crush and pin-bound range limit upside; defined-risk alternatives may offer better R/R.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Contra-trend to extreme bullish GEX/flow; only on a decisive break below $90.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $100C 4/17 (18 DTE) or $98C 4/10 (11 DTE)	Capped upside if breakout occurs; best to monetize high IV.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17 (18 DTE) or sell $90P 4/17	Break below pin and key support at $86.80 (2w EM low).
Long calls / call spread	Moderate	Buy $95/$100 call spread 4/10 (11 DTE)	IV crush and pin-bound range; use spreads to offset high IV cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	N/A	Fighting powerful bullish pinning regime; only for hedging.
Iron condor	Moderate	$88/$85P x $100/$103C 4/17 (18 DTE). GEX positive, but VIX proxy >28 (IV 46.9%) per threshold = Moderate.	Wings could be tested if pin breaks; defined risk but elevated vol increases premium.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $95C 4/17 (49.0% IV), buy $95C 6/18 (38.8% IV) — reverse calendar for bullish pin/vol decay.	Spot moves away from short strike, hurting theta harvest.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $80C Jan 2027 (~39.5% IV), sell $100C against it monthly.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $90/$85 put spread, exp 4/17 (18 DTE)

Capitalizes on extreme IV and the bullish pinning regime with defined risk. Strikes are below the 2-week expected move low ($86.80) and the nearest max pain ($92), providing a significant buffer. The 18 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis and captures peak IV in the term structure (earnings week).

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $88.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit (close for ~$0.45). Exit if spot closes below $86.80 (2w EM low).

Traders seeking defined-risk, high-IV premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Calendar Call

Sell $95 Call 4/17, Buy $95 Call 6/18

Exploits the ~10 vol-point differential between the humped April expiry (49.0% IV) and flatter June expiry (38.8% IV). Benefits from vol decay and pinning at/under $95. The longer DTE on the long leg provides duration to manage if the pin breaks or if spot rallies post-earnings, making it superior to a weekly sale.

Credit: $1.80-$2.30

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush or spot move.

Mgmt: Close when April short expires or IV spread compresses by 50%. Exit if spot rallies decisively above $98 (above short-term EM high).

Volatility traders comfortable with undefined risk, aiming to harvest rich near-term vol ahead of earnings.

Covered Call (Tactical Overlay)

Own shares, sell the $100 Call 4/17 (18 DTE)

Monetizes extremely high IV while maintaining bullish exposure. Strike is at the key call OI wall and just above the 2-week expected move high ($103.20), offering a buffer and a clear resistance target. This 18 DTE overlay works within the multi-week bullish thesis, generating significant income against a core position.

Credit: $1.40-$1.80

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: Stock price minus credit received.

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $99. Close at 50-70% profit if IV collapses quickly post-earnings.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a high-vol, range-bound environment with a clear upside cap.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $92.00 (max pain) and holds for 1 hour → Enter sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $97.35 (2-day EM high) → Sell $100/$103 call spread 4/17 (selling into dealer hedging near resistance).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $86.80 (2-week EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITIV (Avg) drops below 40% → Take profits on all premium-selling strategies (put spreads, covered calls).

EXITSpot closes above $100.00 (key OI wall) → Take profits on short call positions (covered calls, calendars).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Extreme GEX pinning ($189.2M) creates a powerful bullish, range-bound regime, favoring selling rich IV premium with a bullish skew. Invalidation is a close below $86.80. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk premium sale, 2) Reverse calendar to harvest rich near-term vol ahead of earnings, 3) Covered call for shareholders. The regime strongly favors selling options (puts > calls) until IV collapses or the pin breaks.

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.