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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.09EOD only

Max Pain

$89.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.90

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+0.91

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.79

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 30, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime, but with a shift from prior extreme conditions. Confidence: 8.5/10. Positive GEX ($130.4M) and DEX (+134.3M shares) remain powerful magnets, now reinforced by a significant net bullish premium flow (+$35.1M). The primary conflict is the high P/C volume ratio (1.69) suggesting put activity, though much appears to be structural/legacy.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5; GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish, GEX positive (pinning), spot 1.6% from MP. No override—mechanical score remains accurate despite mixed flow signals, as GEX dominance is clear.

Supports: GEX +$130.4M (pinning), DEX +134.3M shares (dealer long), net premium +$35.1M (bullish), rising max pain ladder
Conflicts: P/C Volume Ratio 1.69 indicates put volume dominance, but net premium is strongly bullish, suggesting large, low-priced legacy puts.

📌GEX pinning remains extreme at +$130M, dominating price action.

⚠️IV 49.4% remains rich, but down from 51.9% — premium-selling edge persists.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 49.4% — still very rich, favoring premium-selling strategies, but down from prior extreme high.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$130.4M concentrated near spot — powerful pinning force persists, though slightly reduced from prior $145.5M.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$35.1M bullish, but P/C vol 1.69 is mixed — suggests structural put activity (legacy low-strike positions) overlaying bullish call flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $93.47 above nearest MP $92 — pin may drift down slightly, but GEX dominance overrides.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward ($92 → $95 over near expiries), GEX sign remains strongly positive, and bullish net premium flow is consistent. The supportive structure persists beyond a single expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$88.65$98.28

GEX pin dominates; break below $90.58 (4d EM low) invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $92 (2026-03-27); $92 (2026-04-02); $93 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails:

Support: $5.00 · $1.50 · $2.00

Resistance: $125.00 · $105.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,945

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $100, $105, $125 cap upside. Put 'floor' is non-existent near-term due to deep, legacy OI at $5, $2, $1.50 — these are not tradable support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+130.4M

DEX: +134.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$5 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,945)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$5 is irrelevant; all meaningful gamma is concentrated near current spot. Dealers are massively long gamma and delta (DEX +134.3M shares) — they hedge by selling into rallies and buying dips, reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 49.4% — extremely rich vs any broad market measure, creating strong edge for premium sellers.

Term structure: Humped — IV peaks at 50.1% for 4/17 expiry (19 DTE), then declines. This is the 'higher-IV' expiry for calendar spreads.

Skew: IV ~9 vol points richer in April (50.1%) vs June (41.3%) — supports calendar spreads selling April, buying longer-dated.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$35.1M bullish; P/C vol 1.69, P/C OI 0.92

Directional prints: $101C shows $6.7M net premium (likely bought calls for upside). $94P 4/2 vol 5.6K vs OI 2.2K (2.6x) — could be sold puts for pin or bought for protection; sold aligns with bullish flow.

Unusual: Massive volume in deep OTM Dec '26 $1-$3 puts (IV 140-180%) — almost certainly legacy/financing activity, not a directional signal.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin release at weekly expiries could increase volatility.

!High IV (49.4%) implies large mark-to-market swings for short premium.

!Structural call OI wall at $100 may act as firm resistance or magnet.

!Earnings expected ~4/16 creates an event kink in the term structure (IV elevated for 4/17).

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $93.47	IV crush and pin-bound range limit upside; defined-risk alternatives may be better.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Contra-trend to strong bullish GEX/flow; only on break below $90.58.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $98C or $100C 4/17 (19 DTE)	Capped upside if breakout occurs; best to monetize high IV.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17 (19 DTE) or sell $90P 4/17	Break below pin and key support at $88.65 (2w EM low).
Long calls / call spread	Moderate	Buy $95/$100 call spread 4/10 (12 DTE)	IV crush and pin-bound range; use spreads to offset high IV cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	N/A	Fighting powerful bullish pinning regime; only for hedging.
Iron condor	Moderate	$88/$85P x $98/$101C 4/17 (19 DTE). GEX positive, but VIX proxy >28 (IV 49.4%) per threshold = Moderate.	Wings could be tested if pin breaks; defined risk but elevated vol increases premium.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $95C 4/17 (50.1% IV), buy $95C 6/18 (41.3% IV) — reverse calendar for bullish pin/vol decay.	Spot moves away from short strike, hurting theta harvest.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $80C Jan 2027 (~40% IV), sell $98C or $100C against it monthly.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $90/$85 put spread, exp 4/17 (19 DTE)

Capitalizes on high IV and the bullish pinning regime with defined risk. Strike below the 2-week expected move low ($88.65) provides a buffer. The 19 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis and captures peak IV in the term structure.

Credit: $1.05-$1.25

Max loss: $3.95

BE: $88.95

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit (close for ~$0.40). Exit if spot closes below $88.65 (2w EM low).

Traders seeking defined-risk, high-IV premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Calendar Call

Sell $95 Call 4/17, Buy $95 Call 6/18

Exploits the ~9 vol-point differential between the humped April expiry (50.1% IV) and flatter June expiry (41.3% IV). Benefits from vol decay and pinning at/under $95. The longer DTE on the long leg provides duration to manage if the pin breaks, making it better than a weekly sale.

Credit: $1.70-$2.20

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush or spot move.

Mgmt: Close when April short expires or IV spread compresses by 50%. Exit if spot rallies decisively above $97.

Volatility traders comfortable with undefined risk, aiming to harvest rich near-term vol.

Covered Call (Tactical Overlay)

Own shares, sell the $98 Call 4/17 (19 DTE)

Monetizes extremely high IV while maintaining bullish exposure. Strike is at the 2-week expected move high ($98.28), offering a buffer. This 19 DTE overlay works within the multi-week bullish thesis, generating income against a core position.

Credit: $1.50-$1.90

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: Stock price minus credit received.

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $98. Close at 50-70% profit if IV collapses quickly.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a high-vol, range-bound environment.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $92.00 (max pain) and holds for 1 hour → Enter sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot tags $95.50 → Sell $98/$101 call spread 4/17 (selling into dealer hedging).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $88.65 (2-week EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITIV (Avg) drops below 42% → Take profits on all premium-selling strategies (put spreads, covered calls).

EXITSpot closes above $100.00 (key OI wall) → Take profits on short call positions (covered calls, calendars).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Powerful GEX pinning ($130.4M) creates a bullish, range-bound regime, favoring selling high IV premium with a bullish skew. Invalidation is a close below $88.65. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk premium sale, 2) Reverse calendar to harvest rich near-term vol, 3) Covered call for shareholders. The regime favors selling options (puts > calls) until IV collapses or the pin breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 30, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.