NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime, but with a shift from prior extreme conditions. Confidence: 8.5/10. Positive GEX ($130.4M) and DEX (+134.3M shares) remain powerful magnets, now reinforced by a significant net bullish premium flow (+$35.1M). The primary conflict is the high P/C volume ratio (1.69) suggesting put activity, though much appears to be structural/legacy.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5; GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish, GEX positive (pinning), spot 1.6% from MP. No override—mechanical score remains accurate despite mixed flow signals, as GEX dominance is clear.

Supports: GEX +$130.4M (pinning), DEX +134.3M shares (dealer long), net premium +$35.1M (bullish), rising max pain ladder
Conflicts: P/C Volume Ratio 1.69 indicates put volume dominance, but net premium is strongly bullish, suggesting large, low-priced legacy puts.

📌GEX pinning remains extreme at +$130M, dominating price action.

⚠️IV 49.4% remains rich, but down from 51.9% — premium-selling edge persists.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 49.4% — still very rich, favoring premium-selling strategies, but down from prior extreme high.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$130.4M concentrated near spot — powerful pinning force persists, though slightly reduced from prior $145.5M.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$35.1M bullish, but P/C vol 1.69 is mixed — suggests structural put activity (legacy low-strike positions) overlaying bullish call flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $93.47 above nearest MP $92 — pin may drift down slightly, but GEX dominance overrides.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward ($92 → $95 over near expiries), GEX sign remains strongly positive, and bullish net premium flow is consistent. The supportive structure persists beyond a single expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$88.65$98.28

GEX pin dominates; break below $90.58 (4d EM low) invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $92 (2026-03-27); $92 (2026-04-02); $93 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails:

Support: $5.00 · $1.50 · $2.00

Resistance: $125.00 · $105.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,945

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $100, $105, $125 cap upside. Put 'floor' is non-existent near-term due to deep, legacy OI at $5, $2, $1.50 — these are not tradable support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+130.4M

DEX: +134.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$5 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 176,945)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$5 is irrelevant; all meaningful gamma is concentrated near current spot. Dealers are massively long gamma and delta (DEX +134.3M shares) — they hedge by selling into rallies and buying dips, reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 49.4% — extremely rich vs any broad market measure, creating strong edge for premium sellers.

Term structure: Humped — IV peaks at 50.1% for 4/17 expiry (19 DTE), then declines. This is the 'higher-IV' expiry for calendar spreads.

Skew: IV ~9 vol points richer in April (50.1%) vs June (41.3%) — supports calendar spreads selling April, buying longer-dated.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$35.1M bullish; P/C vol 1.69, P/C OI 0.92

Directional prints: $101C shows $6.7M net premium (likely bought calls for upside). $94P 4/2 vol 5.6K vs OI 2.2K (2.6x) — could be sold puts for pin or bought for protection; sold aligns with bullish flow.

Unusual: Massive volume in deep OTM Dec '26 $1-$3 puts (IV 140-180%) — almost certainly legacy/financing activity, not a directional signal.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin release at weekly expiries could increase volatility.

!High IV (49.4%) implies large mark-to-market swings for short premium.

!Structural call OI wall at $100 may act as firm resistance or magnet.

!Earnings expected ~4/16 creates an event kink in the term structure (IV elevated for 4/17).

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $93.47	IV crush and pin-bound range limit upside; defined-risk alternatives may be better.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Contra-trend to strong bullish GEX/flow; only on break below $90.58.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $98C or $100C 4/17 (19 DTE)	Capped upside if breakout occurs; best to monetize high IV.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17 (19 DTE) or sell $90P 4/17	Break below pin and key support at $88.65 (2w EM low).
Long calls / call spread	Moderate	Buy $95/$100 call spread 4/10 (12 DTE)	IV crush and pin-bound range; use spreads to offset high IV cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	N/A	Fighting powerful bullish pinning regime; only for hedging.
Iron condor	Moderate	$88/$85P x $98/$101C 4/17 (19 DTE). GEX positive, but VIX proxy >28 (IV 49.4%) per threshold = Moderate.	Wings could be tested if pin breaks; defined risk but elevated vol increases premium.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $95C 4/17 (50.1% IV), buy $95C 6/18 (41.3% IV) — reverse calendar for bullish pin/vol decay.	Spot moves away from short strike, hurting theta harvest.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $80C Jan 2027 (~40% IV), sell $98C or $100C against it monthly.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $90/$85 put spread, exp 4/17 (19 DTE)

Capitalizes on high IV and the bullish pinning regime with defined risk. Strike below the 2-week expected move low ($88.65) provides a buffer. The 19 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis and captures peak IV in the term structure.

Credit: $1.05-$1.25

Max loss: $3.95

BE: $88.95

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit (close for ~$0.40). Exit if spot closes below $88.65 (2w EM low).

Traders seeking defined-risk, high-IV premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Calendar Call

Sell $95 Call 4/17, Buy $95 Call 6/18

Exploits the ~9 vol-point differential between the humped April expiry (50.1% IV) and flatter June expiry (41.3% IV). Benefits from vol decay and pinning at/under $95. The longer DTE on the long leg provides duration to manage if the pin breaks, making it better than a weekly sale.

Credit: $1.70-$2.20

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush or spot move.

Mgmt: Close when April short expires or IV spread compresses by 50%. Exit if spot rallies decisively above $97.

Volatility traders comfortable with undefined risk, aiming to harvest rich near-term vol.

Covered Call (Tactical Overlay)

Own shares, sell the $98 Call 4/17 (19 DTE)

Monetizes extremely high IV while maintaining bullish exposure. Strike is at the 2-week expected move high ($98.28), offering a buffer. This 19 DTE overlay works within the multi-week bullish thesis, generating income against a core position.

Credit: $1.50-$1.90

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: Stock price minus credit received.

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $98. Close at 50-70% profit if IV collapses quickly.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a high-vol, range-bound environment.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $92.00 (max pain) and holds for 1 hour → Enter sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot tags $95.50 → Sell $98/$101 call spread 4/17 (selling into dealer hedging).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $88.65 (2-week EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITIV (Avg) drops below 42% → Take profits on all premium-selling strategies (put spreads, covered calls).

EXITSpot closes above $100.00 (key OI wall) → Take profits on short call positions (covered calls, calendars).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Powerful GEX pinning ($130.4M) creates a bullish, range-bound regime, favoring selling high IV premium with a bullish skew. Invalidation is a close below $88.65. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk premium sale, 2) Reverse calendar to harvest rich near-term vol, 3) Covered call for shareholders. The regime favors selling options (puts > calls) until IV collapses or the pin breaks.

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-03-30. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.