Home Options NFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.09EOD only

Max Pain

$89.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.90

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+0.91

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.79

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 26, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime targeting $92-$94 near-term. Confidence: 8.5/10. Massive positive GEX ($145.5M) and DEX (+137.6M shares) create a powerful magnet, reinforced by net bullish premium flow. The primary conflict is extremely high IV (51.9%), which adds noise and tail risk.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5; GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish, GEX positive (pinning), spot 1.4% from MP. No override—mechanical score captures the dominant regime.

Supports: GEX +$145.5M (strong pinning), DEX +137.6M shares (dealer long), net premium +$20.0M (bullish), P/C vol 0.73
Conflicts: IV 51.9% is extremely elevated, adding premium-selling edge but also volatility risk.

📌Extreme GEX pinning ($145.5M) dominates price action.

⚠️IV >50% — selling premium has edge, but beware of tail moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 51.9% — extremely high, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$145.5M concentrated near spot — powerful pinning force through expiry.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$20M with P/C vol 0.73 — institutional call buying supports bullish drift.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $93.32 above MP $92 — pin may drift down slightly, but GEX dominance overrides.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward ($92 → $95), GEX sign remains strongly positive across expirations, and bullish flow regime is consistent. The pin is strongest this week but the supportive structure persists.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$91.71$94.93

GEX pin dominates; break below $91.71 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$89.48$97.16

Flow and rising max pain support upside; $97.16 (1w EM high) is key resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$88.01$98.63

Structural call OI at $100 caps; sustained move above $98.63 (2w EM high) opens path to $100.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $92 (2026-03-27); $92 (2026-04-02); $94 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $91.71/$94.93; 1w $89.48/$97.16

Support: $5.00 · $1.50 · $2.00

Resistance: $125.00 · $105.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 172,620

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $100, $105, $125 cap upside. Put 'floor' is non-existent near-term due to deep OI at $5, $2, $1.50 — these are legacy/financial engineering positions, not tradable support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+145.5M

DEX: +137.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$5 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 172,620)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$5 is irrelevant for trading; all meaningful gamma is concentrated near current spot due to pinning. Dealers are massively long gamma and delta (DEX +137.6M shares) — they hedge by selling into rallies and buying dips, reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 51.9% — extremely rich vs any broad market measure, creating strong edge for premium sellers.

Term structure: Humped — IV peaks at 47.4% for 4/17 expiry (21 DTE), then declines. This is the 'higher-IV' expiry for calendar spreads.

Skew: IV ~10 vol points richer in April (47.4%) vs June (40.7%) — supports calendar spreads selling April, buying longer-dated.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$20.0M bullish; P/C vol 0.73, P/C OI 0.90

Directional prints: $95C 3/27 vol 45K vs OI 12K (3.8x) at 45.2% IV — likely bought calls for upside pin play. $93P & $94P 3/27 high volume vs OI — could be sold puts for pin or bought for protection; sold aligns with bullish flow.

Unusual: $114P 4/17 vol 301 vs OI 11 (27x) at 70.1% IV — could be a speculative buy or part of a complex hedge; high IV suggests bought for tail risk.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin release at Friday's (3/27) expiry could increase volatility next week.

!Extreme IV (51.9%) implies high volatility of volatility — short premium faces large mark-to-market swings.

!Structural call OI wall at $100 may act as a strong magnet or firm resistance.

!Macro/ sector moves could override the strong but localized pinning regime.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $93.32	IV crush and pin-bound range limit upside; defined-risk alternatives may be better.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Contra-trend to strong bullish GEX/flow; only on break below $91.71.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $97C or $100C 4/17 (21 DTE)	Capped upside if breakout occurs; best if you want to monetize high IV and are willing to sell at strike.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17 (21 DTE) or sell $90P 4/17	Break below pin and key support at $89.48 (1w EM low).
Long calls / call spread	Moderate	Buy $95/$100 call spread 4/10 (14 DTE)	IV crush and pin-bound range; use spreads to offset high IV cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	N/A	Fighting powerful bullish pinning regime; only for hedging.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Not recommended — GEX positive favors range, but VIX proxy >50 is extreme, raising tail risk per threshold rules (GEX positive AND VIX >28 = Moderate).	Wings could be tested if pin breaks; defined risk but poor R/R in high vol.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $95C 4/17 (47.4% IV), buy $95C 6/18 (40.7% IV) — reverse calendar for bullish pin/vol decay.	Spot moves away from short strike, hurting theta harvest.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $80C Jan 2027, sell $97C or $100C against it monthly.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated (~41%).

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $90/$85 put spread, exp 4/17 (21 DTE)

Capitalizes on high IV, bullish pinning regime, and defined risk below the 1-week expected move low ($89.48). The 21 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis and captures peak IV in the term structure.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $88.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit (close for ~$0.40). Exit if spot closes below $89.48 (1w EM low).

Traders seeking defined-risk, high-IV premium collection with a bullish bias.

Reverse Calendar Call

Sell $95 Call 4/17, Buy $95 Call 6/18

Exploits the ~7 vol-point differential between the humped April expiry (47.4% IV) and flatter June expiry (40.7% IV). Benefits from vol decay and pinning at/under $95. The longer DTE on the long leg provides duration to manage if the pin breaks.

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush or spot move.

Mgmt: Close when April short expires or IV spread compresses by 50%. Exit if spot rallies decisively above $97 (threatening short call).

Volatility traders comfortable with undefined risk, aiming to harvest rich near-term vol.

Covered Call (Tactical Overlay)

Own shares, sell the $97 Call 4/10 (14 DTE)

Monetizes extremely high IV while maintaining bullish exposure. Strike is above the 1-week expected move high ($97.16), offering a buffer. This 14 DTE overlay works within the multi-week bullish thesis, generating income against a core position.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: Stock price minus credit received.

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $97. Close at 50-70% profit if IV collapses quickly.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a high-vol, range-bound environment.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $92.00 (max pain) and holds for 1 hour → Enter sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17.

IFIV term structure flattens (Apr IV falls to within 3 pts of Jun IV) → Close reverse calendar spread for profit.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $89.48 (1-week EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITIV (Avg) drops below 40% → Take profits on all premium-selling strategies (put spreads, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Powerful GEX pinning ($145.5M) creates a bullish range-bound regime, favoring selling high IV premium with a bullish skew. Invalidation is a close below $89.48. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk premium sale, 2) Reverse calendar to harvest rich near-term vol, 3) Covered call for shareholders. The regime favors selling options (puts > calls) until IV collapses or the pin breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.