base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 59.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Term structure: Steep skew; near-term put IV elevated (341% vs call 347% at 2d), indicating downside hedging demand
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+31.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$730.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,761 (28.5% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain for 6/18: $640 (far below spot). Put floor $530-$900. Call wall $1200.
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $1000.00/$975.00 put wing and $1050.00/$1070.00 call wing
Captures premium within a high-probability range with defined risk.
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below 975 or above 1050.
#2Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $980.00 put + sell $1070.00 call
Sells calls and puts for maximum theta decay.
Mgmt: Monitor gamma flip at 730; consider rolling if breached.
#3Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $1000.00/$980.00 put spread
Sells put spread to collect premium with defined risk.
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot falls below 825.
!Downside tail risk from high put IV skew
!Gamma flip at 730 triggers dealer hedging
!Spot 59.5% from max pain