base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 11.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22; override: Premium selling unfavorable due to extreme IV relative to VIX and bearish flow
Term structure: Term structure shows contango from 7d to far, but 0d ATM IV is anomalously low; overall elevated.
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-48.8M)
Gamma flip: ~$610.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,317 (29.4% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain $980 (Jun5), $940 (Jun12), $470 (Jun18); call wall $1200; put floor $485-$800
#1Put calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $850.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $850.00 put
Sells high-IV front put, buys lower-IV back put; profits from volatility contraction while maintaining bearish direction.
Mgmt: Close if spot drops below $800; adjust if IV spread narrows.
#2Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $900.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $900.00 call
Sells high-IV front call, buys lower-IV back call; profits from volatility contraction with neutral-bullish bias.
Mgmt: Monitor earnings reaction; close if spot breaks below $800.
!Spot 11.8% from max pain $980
!Heavy put OI ratio 1.52 indicates bearish bias
!Net dealer short premium ($-1.25B) may amplify moves