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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $449.38EOD only
Max Pain
$430.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$26.85
6.0% from close
Price Gap
-19.38
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.23
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
MU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Mildly bullish — concentrated puts at 470–475 are pinning into earnings, limiting downside pre-event while elevated IV caps large realized upside.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Concentrated put flow + positive GEX centered 470–475 with supportive dealer hedging; spot slightly above mid-price.
Most important: Put concentration at 470–475 is the dominant near-term pinning force.
📌Heavy puts at $470–$475 are the dominant pin into earnings
⚠️Front-month IV ~72% — expect ~40% median crush; surprises keep IV elevated

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$390.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,155 (20.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24 (63 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (2d): ±$26.53 (5.4%)
  • 2026-05-01 (9d): ±$25.92 (5.3%)
  • 2026-05-08 (16d): ±$64.38 (13.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-month IV ~72% (expiring within 7–10 days) vs 30–40% for 2–3 month expiries; term skew steep into the front month.

Crush estimate: If results are within guidance expect a 30–50% drop in front-month IV (40% median); surprise-driven move could leave IV only down ~10–20% (20% tail).

Skew: Put-heavy front-month skew: 470–475 puts trade 10–25% richer than ATM on vol basis; call interest elevated 487–518 but lower OI.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Last four earnings: 2023-02-02 +6.1%, 2023-05-01 +5.9%, 2023-08-03 +7.4%, 2023-11-06 +7.7% — avg move 6.8% vs model ~7.0% (in line).

Directional bias: Beat rate 4/4 historically; supports mild upside bias but small sample.

Key Levels

1$390.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $460.96/$514.01; 1w $461.56/$513.41
3Max pain pins: $432 (2026-04-24); $410 (2026-05-01); $405 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated put prints at 470–475 on 4/24 and 5/01 with high vol/oi.

Short-gamma hedging from dealers likely pins spot into that 470–475 range pre-earnings.

Broader OI max-pain sits lower (~432/410/405) from older positions.

Legacy max-pain suggests lower long-term pressure, but recent heavy front-month puts are higher-probability pin drivers for the immediate expiry.

Strategies

Defined-risk iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $422.50/$420.00 put wing and $500.00/$502.50 call wing
Credit: $1.19-$1.46
Max loss: $1.04
Max gain: $1.46
BE: 421.04 / 501.46
Trigger: Trim or unwind on IV drop >30% or if spot trends toward wings; close into earnings day.
Balances premium capture with defined risk around the pin cluster.
Outperforms: Collect front-month skewed premium while capping short-gamma risk near 470–475; tight entry range maximizes R:R.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (sell May, buy May-29)
Sell 2026-05-01 $500.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $505.00 call
Debit: $17.12-$20.93
Max loss: $20.93
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll or cut short leg if IV collapses <45% or spot breaches 500; keep long leg as hedge.
Harvests rich front-month calls while preserving upside optionality post-crush.
Outperforms: Short near-term calls to collect decay/skew, long later calls to limit upside exposure and benefit from delayed volatility.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (avoid pin)
Sell 2026-05-01 $422.50 put + sell $500.00 call
Credit: $22.97-$28.08
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $28.08
BE: 394.42 / 528.08
Trigger: Use strict hedges or buy protection if spot nears 470–475 or on adverse IV moves.
Highest premium but largest tail risk and short-gamma near pin cluster.
Outperforms: Sell balanced tails away from 470–475 to reduce immediate pin risk but remains unlimited downside.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Front-month IV 72% — expect 30–50% crush (40% median) if no surprise
!40% chance of muted move (within +/-3%); 20% tail chance of >10% move on surprise
!Pinning can cause sharp move if spot breaks 470 or 475 with short-gamma feedback

What to Watch

?New unusual prints at 470–475 (will reinforce pin) and 487.5/517.5 (call flow) on 4/24–5/01
?Front-month IV trajectory (current 72%); watch drop below 45% pre-close as sell signal
?Divergence: legacy max-pain 432/410/405 vs active put cluster 470–475 — which side collects OI into close matters
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.