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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $751.00EOD only
Max Pain
$690.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$65.55
8.7% from close
Price Gap
-61.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
66
High premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
MU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

MU is in a high-vol, pinning regime (GEX +$90.9M) with strong bullish call flow concentrated around $400–$450. The best near-term approach is a tilt toward premium selling inside the 2‑day/1‑week expected-move bands or a defined-risk bullish put spread; long volatility (straddle) is viable if you want pure directional/vol exposure but must accept a large debit (~$39 for the 420 straddle 4/17). Key risk: a gap outside the 1‑week EM ($387.74–$455.29) driven by news or an outsized guidance move will blow up short premium positions.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 11.7% from MP
Most important: Monitor IV trajectory into short-dated expirations (1d ATM IV 76.3% vs 8d 67.8%) and heavy put buying around $410–$425 on the 4/10 chain.
📌Strong dealer pinning at $400/$415/$420 (GEX lumps +$7.4M, +$7.2M, +$6.4M) — these are the focal support/resistance zones into short-dated expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Gamma flip near $300 — below this dealers would amplify moves; far from spot today

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24 (76 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): 76.3% ATM IV → b1$13.47 (3.2%) [$408.04 - $434.99]
  • 2026-04-17 (8d): ATM 67.8% → b1$33.78 (8.0%) [$387.74 - $455.29]
  • 2026-06-18 (70d proxy): b1$100.12 (23.8%) [$321.39 - $521.64]

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated: 1d ATM 76.3% dropping to 67.8% at 8d and ~68–71% across the next month. Avg IV across the chain is 79.4%.

Crush estimate: ~8–10 vol points from 1d (76.3%) back to nearby multi-day levels (67.8% at 8d) — expect a material IV pullback when short-term event pressure eases.

Skew: Call-heavy premium flow (net call premium concentrated at $400/$410/$420) with puts showing clusters at $300 and notable short-dated put flow around $410–$425 (unusual activity). Slight put-rich OI at deep OTM strikes but front-end skew shows expensive puts near 420 (420 put IV 67.0% vs calls 69.3%).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent reported quarters beat: 2026-02-28, 2025-11-30, 2025-08-31, 2025-05-31)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided as EM per historical prints, but earnings history shows consistent beats which supports a bullish tilt into results.

Directional bias: Bias to upside on reported quarters (all four beats), available: true

Key Levels

1$400.00 (GEX concentration +$7.4M; heavy call OI/premium flow)
2$415.00 (GEX concentration +$7.2M; strong call OI 13,904)
3$420.00 (GEX concentration +$6.4M; high premium flow at $420 call/net)
4EM 2d: $408.04 - $434.99
5EM 1w: $387.74 - $455.29

Flow Highlights

Large call premium concentrated at $400/$410/$420 (Net premium: $400 call net $63,612,625; $410 net $54,807,984; $420 net $42,625,622).

Aggressive upside positioning from flow desk/clients — dealers are net short calls and will hedge by buying stock into strength near those strikes (supports pinning).

Unusual short-dated put activity on 2026-04-10: $420 put vol 6,316 (OI 515), $425 put vol 1,246 (OI 108), and heavy $410 put vol 11,381 (OI 1,118).

Either protection buying ahead of near-term volatility or directional hedging—this creates asymmetry (dealer delta buys on put selling/buys) that can reinforce pinning near $410–$425 in the short run.

Strategies

Defined-risk bullish put vertical (income tilt)
Sell 2026-04-17 400 put / Buy 2026-04-17 380 put
Credit: $8.50-$10.00
Max loss: $11.50
Max gain: $10.00
BE: Net short strike ~$391.50 (400 - credit)
Trigger: Enter pre-expiry if you want to harvest premium inside the 1-week EM ($387.74 - $455.29) and if IV remains ≥65%
Bullish regime, large call flow/GEX pins above create dealer buying into strength; selling a 400/380 put spread captures rich short-dated put premium (400 put mid ~13.6, 380 put mid ~8.0) while defined risk limits tail risk.
Outperforms: MU holds above breakeven (~$391.5) into 4/17 and IV compresses modestly.
Underperforms: A downside gap below ~$387 (1-week lower EM) or sudden large negative guidance causes a >8% gap.
Long straddle (volatility play)
Buy 2026-04-17 420 straddle (Buy 420 call + Buy 420 put)
Debit: $38.75-$40.50
Max loss: $40.50
Max gain: Unlimited above upside breakeven / large below downside breakeven
BE: Approx $421.5 b1 $39 → ~ $382 / $461
Trigger: Enter if you expect a directional beat/miss or want pure vol exposure; better to enter before any further IV spike and size conservatively.
Front-end IV is rich but directional size from flow and consistent positive earnings surprise history mean a sizable move is plausible; straddle is straightforward to capture that, though costly.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 8d EM (~$33.78) by >15-20% or there is a directional gap beyond the straddle breakevens.
Underperforms: Stock pins inside $408–$435 with IV collapse; or if IV drops >10 vol pts reducing straddle value.
Short iron-condor (premium sell inside EM)
Sell 2026-04-17 410/430 call spread and sell 2026-04-17 395/385 put spread (defined-risk iron condor)
Credit: $5.00-$7.00
Max loss: $13.00
Max gain: $7.00
BE: Upside ~437 (430 + credit), Downside ~388 (395 - credit)
Trigger: Enter 2–3 days before expiry if IV remains elevated and you prefer premium harvesting within the 1-week EM bounds.
Pinning regime and strong call OI concentration increase chance of consolidation inside EM; defined-risk structure limits tail exposure while harvesting net premium.
Outperforms: MU stays within the 1-week EM ($387.74–$455.29) and IV compresses.
Underperforms: Any gap beyond the wings (especially downside gap below ~388) or sudden news move expands IV and takes the trade to max loss.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 1-week EM is ±8.0% ($387.74 - $455.29). Guidance/news can easily exceed these bands and blow up short premium trades.
!IV crush: Expect ~8–10 vol point mean reversion from 1d spikes → short vol benefits if realized move stays inside EM, but long vol needs a >EM move to overcome crush and debit.
!Liquidity: Chains are very liquid (total OI 2,458,114; active strikes 208) — entries/exits are feasible but wide bid-ask on very short-dated strikes (use limit orders).
!Concentration risk: Dealers heavily pinned at $400–$420; heavy call flow means gamma can amplify moves into those strikes if price approaches them.
!Sizing: Given high IV and potential for outsized gaps, keep short-premium position sizes limited (use defined-risk spreads) and keep long straddle sizes small relative to portfolio volatility budget.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the 4/10–4/17 expirations (1d ATM IV 76.3% vs 8d 67.8%)
?Unusual short-dated put buying around $410–$425 (vol/OI spikes) — could indicate buy-side protection
?Net call premium flow at $400/$410/$420 and whether dealers hedge by buying stock (support) or unwind (vol move)
?SP/sector catalysts or guidance ahead of 2026-06-24 that could trigger a gap beyond EM bounds
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.