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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $457.23EOD only
Max Pain
$405.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.32
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-52.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
66
High premium
P/C OI
1.16
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
MU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

7.5/10. Volatility is elevated (Avg IV 81.5%) with a clear dealer pinning regime (GEX +$68.1M, gamma flip ≈ $450). Best strategy is defined-risk premium collection inside the EM rails (short put/spread or iron condor) because dealers are likely to pin and front IV is rich. Key risk: a guidance or macro-driven gap that breaks dealer pin levels (gap beyond the 1‑week EM rails into the $390s or above $500) which will spike realized move and invalidate short premium.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Front-week IV is elevated but term structure flattens after 2–3 weeks — prime for harvesting short near-term premium while respecting EM guardrails.
📍Gamma flip sits near $450 while spot $456.23 is above pin — watch for pin-to-flip oscillation
⚠️Max pain for the front expirations is materially lower ($400 on 2026-04-17, $410 on 2026-04-24) — these are out-of-range but signal persistent downside OI concentration
📈Historical beat rate 100% (4/4) gives a modest skew to upside continuation absent a macro shock

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$450.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,297 (1.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$21.32 (4.7%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$41.93 (9.2%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$57.65 (12.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV is elevated and front-loaded: 2d ATM 64.6% → 9d 69.7% → 16d 73.5% with an ATM hump through the next month then gradual roll-down in longer tenors (70–76%).

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-High crush risk for ultra short (2–9d) expirations — expect a large immediate IV drop post any realized move, but sustained higher mid-term vol (~72–75%) if guidance uncertainty persists.

Skew: Skew is call-heavy in premium flow (net premium concentrated on calls at $450–$500) while puts hold large OI at $450 and deep floors ($250–$390) — downside protection interest exists but directional flow is currently bullish.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: MU has shown consistent positive EPS surprises (historical beat rate 100% — 4/4). Short-term realized moves have tended to disappoint the full implied long-dated tail but produce meaningful moves vs front-week EM; traders often undercut a portion of front-week premium.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias into earnings given 4/4 beat record; coupled with net premium flow (+$626.4M bullish) and P/C volume 0.65, odds favor upside pinning around dealer flip (~$450→$480 range) absent a shock.

Key Levels

1$450.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $434.91/$477.56; 1w $414.31/$498.16
3Max pain pins: $400 (2026-04-17); $410 (2026-04-24); $390 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call-side premium concentrated at $450–$500 (top premium flow: $450 net +$71.07M, $460 net +$47.74M, $500 net +$46.93M).

Speculative/business call demand is skewing dealer exposure upward; dealers will be long gamma below the flip (~$450) and may hedge into pinning in that band.

Large put OI at $450 (19,297 OI) and put floor concentrated $250–$390.

Material downside open interest provides a structural put floor below the spot but also creates a gamma concentration that can accelerate moves once broken.

Net premium +$626.4M bullish with GEX +$68.1M and DEX +77.9M shares.

Dealer balance is heavily skewed to the bullish side which supports range-bound behavior and pinning near dealer flip levels unless external news overwhelms the market.

Strategies

Defined-risk short put spread into the EM
Sell 2026-04-24 $425.00/$395.00 put spread
Credit: $5.02-$6.13
Max loss: $23.87
Max gain: $6.13
BE: $418.87
Trigger: Close into the post-event IV crush or tighten/roll if price approaches short strike; cut position if price gaps below the 1‑week EM lower bound $414.31 or if market breadth deteriorates.
Best risk-adjusted way to harvest rich front put premium while capping tail exposure; aligns with dealer pinning (~$450) and the 2‑week EM guardrails.
Outperforms: Sell a near-term put spread sized to the trader’s risk tolerance: target short put around ~25Δ within the 7–16 DTE window and long put ~10Δ below it to create a defined loss if the $414–$435 EM zones are breached.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Short iron condor across the 2‑week EM
Sell 2026-04-17 $437.50/$417.50 put wing and $477.50/$497.50 call wing
Credit: $4.50-$5.49
Max loss: $14.51
Max gain: $5.49
BE: 432.01 / 482.99
Trigger: Trim short side if delta rises >0.40 on either wing; close into post-event IV collapse or if spot breaches support/resistance levels listed below.
Collects both call and put premium inside tight EM rails ($434.91–$477.56 2d, $414.31–$498.16 1w) while keeping risk defined on both tails.
Outperforms: Construct a near-term iron condor selling puts near the lower EM (20–25Δ) and calls near the upper EM (18–22Δ) with long wings ~30–40 points outside to cap losses.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Large one‑day gap beyond EM bounds (below $414.31 or above $500) can blow up short premium structures.
!IV crush: Long vol buyers will face immediate IV collapse post-news; short premium strategies benefit but must manage gamma as price moves toward short strikes.
!Liquidity: Chain is deep (Total OI 2,443,865), but front-week strikes have wide flows — use limit orders and expect slippage on large fills.
!Sizing: Keep position-size limited so a single gap (beyond 1‑week EM) does not exceed risk tolerance; prefer defined-risk or hedged structures when selling premium.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction around the gamma flip ≈ $450 — whether dealers defend/pin there.
?Front two expirations IV slope (2d 64.6% → 9d 69.7% → 16d 73.5%) for signs of bid/offer compression or further front-loading.
?Unusual activity in the MU 04/17 puts around $445–$455 (large vol/OI spikes), which may indicate directional hedging or informed buying.

Read the Earnings analysis for MU for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.