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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $895.88EOD only
Max Pain
$705.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$75.05
8.4% from close
Price Gap
-190.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
84
High premium
P/C OI
1.39
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
MU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-confidence (7.5/10) setup favors premium-selling into the near-term expected move or structured directional plays. Regime is High Vol / Pinning with large positive dealer GEX (+$80.4M) and concentrated call premium (notably $450/$440/$500). Best strategy: short-biased premium sale (tight iron/condor) sized to gamma risk, or a defined-risk long call if directional upside conviction. Key risk: a gap outside EM guardrails on a fundamental surprise or heavy retail gap that defeats dealer pinning.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 17.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Dealer GEX concentration (pin magnets at 450/470/480/500) — if price approaches these, dealer hedging will meaningfully affect intraday flow and pin behavior.
📈Average ATM IV near-term: 69.5% (4/17) with avg IV 81.7% across expiries — use this for sizing and expected premium decay.
📦Large net call premium at $450 ($208.8M) — institutional bullish positioning likely to affect dealer hedging.
📅Next company-confirmed earnings: 2026-06-24 (not immediate); near-term moves are earnings-adjacent/flow-driven rather than company-report-driven.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Gamma flip ~400 based on put OI concentration (17,619 puts; ~14.1% below spot); below this dealers amplify moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24 (71 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (3d): 7.02 (5.8%) [$438.64 - $492.69]
  • 2026-04-24 (10d): 5.90 (9.9%) [$419.76 - $511.56]
  • 2026-05-01 (17d): 1.25 (13.2%) [$404.41 - $526.91]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV sits ~69.5% (2026-04-17) rising slightly into the 70s for 1-2 week expirations (71.3% 4/24, 74.4% 5/01). Long-dated ATM IVs are in the low 70s.

Crush estimate: ~10 vol pts (post-event IV repricing tends to settle into low-70s from near-term highs; use ~10 vol-pt move as working estimate for earnings-adjacent expirations).

Skew: Puts are not notably richer than calls overall — call-heavy premium flow (large call buys at 440/450/500) and P/C volume ratio 0.63; P/C OI ratio 1.14 indicates modest put interest deeper OTM but current flow is call-biased.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters beat EPS estimate)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided in EM table but recent beats and large Feb surprise ($9.16 est -> $12.20 act) indicate a bullish tendency into results.

Directional bias: Tends to gap up on beats (recent quarters show positive EPS surprises and lifts).

Key Levels

1$420.00
2$438.64
3$450.00
4$480.00
5$492.69
6$500.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium at $450 (Call $208,844,535 vs Put $25,452,825; Net $183,391,710).

Large institutional bullish flow centered at $450 — this creates dealer short-call exposure and concentrated GEX (+$8.9M at $450) that can act as a pin/support zone near that strike.

Substantial call premium also at $440 and $500 (net call flow $128.3M and $104.7M respectively).

Across-the-board call buying from 440→500 signals skewed buyer sentiment; dealers will hedge into these strikes which amplifies pinning into these levels and provides resistance/rolling behavior around higher strikes.

Strategies

Short iron condor (defined-risk premium sell)
Sell 2026-04-24 440C / buy 2026-04-24 500C — sell 2026-04-24 420P / buy 2026-04-24 380P (net credit)
Credit: $6.00-$9.00
Max loss: $32.00
Max gain: $6.00
BE: Lower: ~414.00 ; Upper: ~(509.00) (approx, based on credit range)
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before expiry when IV remains elevated and bid-ask spreads are tight; avoid initiation if price is moving quickly toward a wing.
High near-term IV, positive GEX/pinning, and heavy call premium concentrate dealers' hedging around 440-500 — selling premium captures decay while keeping defined risk vs gap moves.
Outperforms: MU trades inside the 4/24 EM rails ($419.76 - $511.56) and pins near dealer GEX concentrations (450/480).
Underperforms: A gap outside EM on a big fundamental surprise or heavy directional flow pushes through the sold wings (>10% move).
Long ATM straddle (vol play)
Buy 2026-04-17 465 straddle (buy 465C + buy 465P) — short-dated earnings-adjacent expectation
Max loss: $27.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $438.66 / $492.66
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before an event or volatility surge if you expect a directional gap beyond EM; avoid if IV has already spiked above mid-70s.
Short-dated ATM IV is elevated (~69.5%) and the 3-day EM equals roughly a straddle cost (~$27) — this is a pure volatility bet when directional conviction is high.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 4/17 EM (±$27.02, i.e., move >~5.8%) or when post-event realized vol stays elevated.
Underperforms: Price pins between breakevens (near 465) and IV collapses post-event.
Directional defined-risk (debit) call spread
Buy 2026-04-24 470C / sell 2026-04-24 510C (debit call spread)
Debit: $7.00-$12.00
Max loss: $12.00
Max gain: $28.00
BE: $477.00
Trigger: Enter if you have bullish thesis supported by fundamental or flow (large call flow at 450/500) and prefer defined risk vs outright calls.
Call-heavy flow and concentrated call OI/GEX at 450/480/500 create dealer-driven upside dynamics; a vertical caps cost while keeping upside participation.
Outperforms: Upside moves push MU through 480 toward 500 by expiry (consistent with flow concentration), capturing asymmetry created by call demand.
Underperforms: MU stalls below 470 or IV collapses materially pre-move.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM (3d) ±$27.02 (5.8%) — rare but guidance or unexpected macro headlines can produce larger gaps; structure trades with defined risk if you can't absorb >EM gaps.
!IV crush: short-dated IV sits near ~69–71% and long-dated mid-70s; buying volatility requires moves meaningfully > EM to justify premium paid; selling premium risks sharp directional gap.
!Liquidity and slippage: large OI and volumes at key strikes (450/500/440/460) provide execution but wideners can appear for less-liquid wings (380/420 puts); use size proportional to available QTY.
!Dealer gamma: large positive GEX (+$80.4M) implies pinning/support near GEX concentrations — but if price breaks through a flip level (near $400), dealers will amplify moves.
!Sizing: favor defined-risk structures or small-sized naked premium sells; avoid large naked short deltas against positive GEX without hedges.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory across 4/17 → 4/24 expiries (watch for term-structure steepening that signals fresh flow).
?Large prints or block trades at 450/440/500 (top net premium strikes) — continuation would reinforce dealer hedging.
?Price approach to $450 / $480 / $500 pin magnets — expect dealer-driven pin behavior.
?Unusual put buying at $420/$400 — could indicate hedged bearish interest or risk-off accumulation.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.