thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMUReports

MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $971.00EOD only
Max Pain
$820.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$107.40
11.1% from close
Price Gap
-151.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.47
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
MU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Regime: High vol, dealer pinning (GEX +$49.7M) with bullish buy-side flow concentrated in calls (top premium flows at $420, $450, $415). Best strategy: premium-selling iron/condor structures outside the 4/17 expected move or bullish call-spread if targeting upside into dealer pin levels. Key risk: a gap beyond EM from an unexpected fundamental shock (guidance or macro) that defeats heavy dealer pinning.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$49.7M, bullish flow); +1 pinning; -1 spot 9.4% above max pain; +0.5 VIX 19.12
Most important: Dealer pinning around 415–450 (GEX concentrations and heavy call premium) — if spot moves decisively through those pins, dealer behavior will flip market dynamics.
📅Next confirmed MU earnings: 2026-06-24 (72 days). Short-term trades target near-term expirations, not the report date.
📌Dealer pinning concentrated at 415/425/450 (GEX concentrations +$4.9M at 415, +$1.6M at 425, +$5.9M at 450) — these are the critical bands for intraday postures.
💰Premium flow is call-heavy (net tens of millions at $420 and $450); consider defined-risk bullish spreads instead of outright long calls.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Gamma flip sits near $300 (well below spot); dealers amplify moves below that level but currently dealers are long-gamma above it, which encourages pinning

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24 (72 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (4d): 70.45 (6.2%) [$400.11 - $453.01]
  • 2026-04-24 (11d): 9.90 (9.9%) [$384.46 - $468.66]
  • 2026-05-01 (18d): 55.07 (12.9%) [$371.48 - $481.63]

IV Setup

Term structure: Flat-to-slightly-steep near-term ATM IV (04/17 ATM 66.3% -> 05/01 ATM 71.1% then settles ~69% through summer); no single sharp earnings kink in the near-term term structure.

Crush estimate: ~5-10 vol pts (given IV range ~66%-71% and no discrete sharp kink near-term; larger moves are possible but implied vols are already elevated)

Skew: Puts concentrated at 300/250/400 (heavy put OI at $300 and $400), calls show large premium flow at $420/$450/$415 — skew is call-heavy in premium flow but sizable put OI creates asymmetric dealer hedging at lower strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters listed all beat estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided in pre-computed fields

Directional bias: Bias to upside after reported quarters (recent surprises were positive)

Key Levels

1$390.00
2$400.00
3$415.00
4$425.00
5$430.00
6$450.00

Flow Highlights

Top premium flow heavily skewed to calls at $420 ($56,864,118 call vs $11,335,920 put, net $45,528,198) and $450 (net $41,124,828 call-heavy).

Large institutional bullish overlay — dealers likely short call deltas and will hedge (pinning pressure) around these strikes, creating resistance/pinning around call clusters.

Large put OI cluster at $300 (17,536 OI) and $400 (15,924 OI) with substantial volume at the $400 put.

Dealer hedging of put exposure creates distinct support area near $400 and a protective floor between $250-$400 as flagged in structural put floor.

Unusual intra-exp flow: heavy trades at near-the-money expirations—e.g., MU260417C00417500 (C $417.50) and multiple $412.50/$417.50 put prints.

Short-dated positioning concentrated near spot suggests dealers are actively managing risk around the current pin bands into the next two expirations.

Strategies

Short iron / premium sell (credit iron condor) — 04/17
Sell 395/385 put vertical and sell 450/470 call vertical (4/17 expirations).
Credit: $2.00-$3.00
Max loss: $8.00
Max gain: $2.50
BE: Net wings ranges: downside ~392.5, upside ~452.5 (approx)
Trigger: Enter 3-1 days before expiry if spot remains inside the 04/17 EM ($400.11-$453.01) and IV hasn't spiked higher.
High GEX (+$49.7M) and concentrated call premium make selling premium attractive; EM for 4/17 is ±$26.45 so selling outside that band captures rich net premium.
Outperforms: MU stays inside the 04/17 expected-move range and pinning holds between $415-$450.
Underperforms: A gap beyond EM (>~$26) or a volatility jump causes large directional move beyond sold wings.
Directional bullish call vertical (debit) — 04/17
Buy 425/450 call spread (4/17).
Debit: $8.50-$9.50
Max loss: $9.50
Max gain: $15.50
BE: $434.00
Trigger: Enter on pullback toward $415 or if flow shows additional call buying above 430; size small relative to account.
Cheap to define upside exposure using call-spread; aligns with bullish flow and keeps risk limited vs outright calls.
Outperforms: Upside surprise pushes price through dealer pin at ~430 and toward $450 (call OI wall), capturing directional move while limiting downside.
Underperforms: Stock stalls inside pinned range near $415-$430 and IV drops marginally (reducing call value).
Long straddle (vol play) — 04/17
Buy 425 straddle (4/17).
Max loss: $34.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx 391 / 459 (mid-prem dependent)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days pre-expiry only if you expect a larger-than-IM move or a discrete news event; avoid if IV rises further before entry.
High ATM IV makes straddle expensive (mid ~34 for 425), so this is a directional/volatility event play — only for traders who expect a move materially larger than the current EM.
Outperforms: Actual realized move > ~30% above the 4/17 EM (move beyond ~±$34), or if large post-event gap occurs.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $425-$430 and IV collapses; historical beat bias does not guarantee outsized realized move by 4/17.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM for 4/17 is ±$26.45 (6.2%) but guidance or macro shocks could produce a gap larger than EM and breach sold wings.
!IV crush: IV is elevated (~66%-71% ATM). Long-vol trades will be hit by IV compression (crush estimate ~5-10 vol pts); short premium benefits if IV mean-reverts.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid near strikes 415/420/450 (large OI and volume); farther OTM strikes have thin liquidity — wide fills could hurt sizing.
!Sizing: Given large GEX and concentrated flows, keep position sizes limited (single-digit percent of risk allocation) — dealers can delta-hedge aggressively near pins.
!Model risk: Max pain pins are clustered (390/400/385) and spot is 9.4% above MP; pinning can create asymmetric mean-reversion toward MP if flows unwind.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the near expirations (04/17 and 04/24) — increases favor buying vol, drops favor selling premium.
?Unusual prints at 412.5/417.5 strikes (seen in flow) — continued activity signals more concentrated dealer hedging around current spot.
?Large block call flows at $420/$450 — if sustained, expect stronger pinning near those strikes.
?SPX/QQQ risk-on moves (XLK strength) that can push MU through call-pin band quickly.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.