thetaOwl

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $122.81EOD only
Max Pain
$127.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.07
5.0% from close
Price Gap
+4.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
MSTR Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Break below $100 gamma flip
Invalidation: Spot reclaims $120
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Watch next session: 6/18 puts; 6/26 calls

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$609.2M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.17

P/C OI ratio: 0.94

Bearish dominant. Negative net premium, high put volume, and deep OTM put activity signal fear. Dealers long delta (+52M) and short gamma, amplifying downside. Call buying on 6/26 offers contrarian risk, but flow is bearish.

Notable Prints

#1
MSTR 2026-06-26 $123.00 Call
Vol: 5,587
OI: 153
Vol/OI: 36.5x
IV: 73.2%
Notional: ~$1.7M
Intent: Bullish

Read-through: Upside

#2
MSTR 2026-06-26 $133.00 Call
Vol: 6,157
OI: 372
Vol/OI: 16.6x
IV: 75.3%
Notional: ~$733K
Intent: Bullish

Read-through: Upside

#3
MSTR 2026-06-26 $131.00 Call
Vol: 3,284
OI: 229
Vol/OI: 14.3x
IV: 74.8%
Notional: ~$470K
Intent: Bullish

Read-through: Upside

#4
MSTR 2026-09-18 $50.00 Put
Vol: 15,232
OI: 1,737
Vol/OI: 8.8x
IV: 106.0%
Notional: ~$1.2M
Intent: Hedge
Dual read: Lottery

Read-through: Tail risk

#5
MSTR 2026-06-26 $129.00 Call
Vol: 1,982
OI: 247
Vol/OI: 8.0x
IV: 73.6%
Notional: ~$341K
Intent: Bullish

Read-through: Upside

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Call buying on 6/26 $123-$136 (vol/oi up to 36x) signals near-term bullish speculation.

Put additions: Large put volume on 6/18 deep ITM $190-$220 (IV 290-418%) and Sep $50 (IV 106%) for downside hedge.

GEX/DEX consistency: GEX -$23.4M vs DEX +52.6M shares – mixed dealer, consistent with spot below MP.

OI clusters: Largest OI: $220 put (1,513), Sep $50 put (1,737), $133 call (372) – key pin levels.

Hedging evidence: Deep ITM 6/18 puts with extreme IV indicate institutional tail-hedging.

Max pain context: Spot below MP; gamma flip near $100 adds pin pressure.

Signal vs Noise

~High vol/oi call adds on 6/26 $123-$136 signal bullish flow.
~Deep ITM put buying on 6/18 with extreme IV is genuine hedging.
~Negative net premium and put/call vol >1 confirm defensive positioning.
~Sep $50 put volume may be roll or retail, not directional.
~Scattered call prints on $129/$131 with moderate OI are secondary noise.

Key Conclusions

🔴Institutions loading deep ITM 6/18 puts hedging against crash.
🟢Call accumulation on 6/26 strikes bets on near-term bounce.
🟡Spot below MP with negative GEX creates pin/squeeze risk.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.