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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $132.36EOD only

Max Pain

$130.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.40

5.6% from close

Price Gap

-2.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

MSTR Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX pinning around 135; -1 flow/premium net negative; +0.5 spot 1.8% above near MP; +0.5 VIX 19.1

Watch next session: Volume/flow at $135 call cluster (OI 45,499) — look for call additions vs closing; Follow any large put follow‑through at $128–$130 (near-term puts showed unusual volume)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$201.8M bearish (net premium into puts)

P/C volume ratio: 1.08 — slight put-volume tilt

P/C OI ratio: 0.82 — OI still call‑skewed (more call OI than put OI)

Flow is mixed but leans bearish in premium terms: daily flow shows significant put premium (net -$201.8M) and P/C volume slightly >1, while open interest remains concentrated in calls (135/140/142). Dealers are long gamma (GEX +$111.5M) which creates pinning pressure into the large call OI cluster around $135–$142; at the same time, real-money is buying protection (puts) and pushing net premium negative. Short-term market outcome depends on whether the call OI pin near $135 holds price or whether net put-premium pressure forces a pullback toward MP at $130.

Notable Prints

MSTR 2026-04-17 $200 PUT

Vol: 595

OI: 310

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 194.6%

Notional: ~$4.07M

Intent: Tail hedge / structured protection or block trade by institutional (protective put or wing of a bespoke package)

Dual read: Could be an aggressive outright protective put (bearish/insurance) or the long leg of a larger spread/collar (neutral to hedging).

Read-through: Large notional and extreme IV imply institutional hedging or a bespoke hedge — not typical directional retail buying. It's a big protection signal that contributes materially to negative net premium.

MSTR 2026-04-17 $129 CALL (ITM)

Vol: 3

OI: 1,119

Vol/OI: 2.8x

IV: 62.9%

Notional: ~$1.74M

Intent: Directional call buying or short‑covering of previously sold calls (bullish/reallocation)

Dual read: Could be fresh bullish call buyers or buyers closing a short call position from the sell side.

Read-through: High volume vs OI at an ITM call near spot indicates active short-term bullish exposure or roll activity into the April expiration; supports the idea dealers may be managing delta into large call OI clusters, reinforcing pinning pressure around $130–$135.

MSTR 2026-04-17 $128 PUT

Vol: 3,662

OI: 1,236

Vol/OI: 3.0x

IV: 62.0%

Notional: ~$732k (using last=$2.00)

Intent: Short-term directional put buying (protective) or spread leg of a collar/put spread

Dual read: Could be outright puts bought (bearish/insurance) or liquidity leg for a call sell/built spread.

Read-through: Very high volume relative to OI at a near‑the‑money put (3% OTM) is a clear short-term protective or directional signal; this print aligns with the net premium negative and suggests active demand for downside protection around current price.

MSTR 2026-04-17 $111 PUT

Vol: 1,130

OI: 202

Vol/OI: 5.6x

IV: 83.2%

Notional: ~$18k (using last=$0.16) or ~$94k option notional depending on trade pricing

Intent: Cheap tail protection or speculative long‑put (small notional)

Dual read: Small-dollar tail hedge vs. testy retail/speculative bet.

Read-through: Very high vol/OI but tiny premium per contract — noisy as a directional signal on its own, but consistent with overall put demand at multiple strikes and expirations.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Large call OI concentration at $135 (45,499 OI), $140 (28,301–37,803 OI across expirations) and $142 (37,474 OI) — suggests institutions/dealers are long/short call exposure centered in $135–$142 strikes (positioning that creates pinning pressure).

Put additions: Notable put demand at near-term $128 (unusual vol) and concentrated protective OI at $100 (27,194 OI), $90 (17,283), $75 (17,637) — indicates institutions maintain material downside protection further below spot while buying near-term protection as well.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — positive GEX (+$111.5M) with large call OI clusters creates dealer gamma that pins into $133–$135 area while DEX (+47.3M shares) shows dealer risk exposure consistent with option hedging flows.

OI clusters: $135 call cluster (45,499 OI) and $142/140 call clusters (37,474 / 28,301 OI) form a near-term resistance / pin magnet; put clusters at $100 (27,194 OI), $90 (17,283), $75 (17,637) create lower-floor protection well below spot.

Hedging evidence: Yes — evidence of protective puts and likely collars: heavy long-dated deep puts and near-term put buying (e.g., $128P volume spike) plus large call OI implies counterparties are balancing delta with hedges rather than outright directional risk.

Max pain context: Near-term Max Pain is $130 (4/17) and $135 (4/24). Spot ($132.36) sits above the April 17 MP but within the cluster of pinning GEX at $133–$135, so dealers have incentive to manage price toward $130–$135; MP trend is falling which aligns with the negative net premium pressure.

Signal vs Noise

~Large notional flows reported at very far strikes in 'Top Premium Flow Strikes' (e.g., $315, $420, $950 etc.) are likely mis-tags, block trades, or basket allocations not relevant to near-term MSTR directional flow — treat as noise unless matched to matching OI clusters.

~High vol/OI on $111 puts (5.6x vol/oi) is small-dollar last ($0.16) — likely cheap tail hedging or speculative gamma scalpers rather than material directional exposure.

~Some call volume at ITM strikes (e.g., $129C, $131C) can be short-covering or dealer delta management tied to the large call OI wall — single prints should be interpreted in the context of the big OI clusters (i.e., spread/dealer flows).

~Expiration-related activity around 2026-04-17 (multiple high vol prints at nearby strikes) could include rolls into 4/24 or closing of short-term positions — watch for simultaneous opening in further-dated expirations which would indicate roll, not new direction.

Key Conclusions

🐂Dealer gamma is positive (+$111.5M) and concentrated at $133–$135 which creates a pin magnet; spot sitting above MP means dealers are incentivized to hedge into these call clusters.

🐻Net premium is strongly negative (-$201.8M) and P/C volume favors puts (1.08) — clear demand for downside protection that biases flow bearish in premium terms.

🧭Key levels to watch within ±10%: Support near $130.00 (4/17 MP) and secondary support at $133.00–$134.00 (GEX concentration).

⛔Resistance / price walls: $140.00–$142.00 call OI wall — a move above here would invalidate the short-term bearish premium pressure.

🔍Unusual high IV and large notional in the $200P print signals institutional hedging (tail protection) — elevates the chance of volatility spikes if downside moves accelerate.

Read the Flow analysis for MSTR for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.