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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $128.64EOD only

Max Pain

$133.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.80

6.8% from close

Price Gap

+4.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

MSTR Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 10, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 4.5 (base 5; -1 net premium bearish; +1 positive GEX pinning; -0.5 spot 3.5% from MP)

Watch next session: New premium or large blocks in Apr-10 puts around $128–$132; Call activity that increases OI or volume at the $135–$140 wall (would pull bias toward bullish)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$212.7M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.79 — call-dominant by volume (calls more frequent)

P/C OI ratio: 0.87 — OI shows a modest call lean, but not extreme

On a volume basis the market shows more call activity (P/C vol 0.79) but large negative net premium (-$212.7M) and concentrated short-dated put flow point to institutional put buying/put-centric premium flow. Dealers sit with positive GEX (+$143.8M) which pins/softens moves; topology is pinning near the 125–132 cluster while a sizable call OI wall sits up at 135–140 creating a resistance magnet.

Notable Prints

MSTR 2026-05-01 $130.00 Put

Vol: 2,386

OI: 1,005

Vol/OI: 2.4x

IV: 69.5%

Notional: ~$2.39M

Intent: Short- to medium-term directional put buying / protective put

Dual read: Bought puts (bearish or protective) OR sold as part of a larger structured position (collar/roll) but size + OI implies a genuine buy interest

Read-through: Meaningful protective or directional put demand into May at $130 — indicates institutional caution with a target hedge level near current spot.

MSTR 2026-04-10 $128.00 Put

Vol: 2,930

OI: 515

Vol/OI: 5.7x

IV: 75.6%

Notional: ~$797k

Intent: Short-dated directional put buying / expiration-hedge

Dual read: Aggressive buyers of protection into Apr-10 expiry OR market makers closing/selling quickly into expiration; volume >> OI favors fresh buys

Read-through: Concentrated Apr-10 put demand exactly at-the-money—evidence of near-term downside protection or speculation, aligning with the negative net premium.

MSTR 2026-04-10 $129.00 Put

Vol: 2,504

OI: 669

Vol/OI: 3.7x

IV: 76.0%

Notional: ~$811k

Intent: Short-dated bearish buying or hedging

Dual read: Likely bought puts (bearish/hedge) though could also be part of short-dated spread activity; volume >> OI suggests new buying

Read-through: Reinforces concentrated Apr-10 downside protection in the 128–131 band; supports short-term bearish skew despite call-volume dominance.

MSTR 2026-04-10 $132.00 Put

Vol: 1,272

OI: 222

Vol/OI: 5.7x

IV: 73.4%

Notional: ~$628k

Intent: Immediate-term protective buying at slightly OTM level

Dual read: Bought puts (protective/speculative) or closing of prior short positions — high vol/OI ratio favors fresh buys

Read-through: Put buying extends up to $132, showing a put frame across $128–$132 into the Apr-10 expiry; creates dealer hedging demand in that band.

MSTR 2026-04-10 $133.00 Put

Vol: 527

OI: 238

Vol/OI: 2.2x

IV: 73.2%

Notional: ~$298k

Intent: Short-dated put buy (follow-through)

Dual read: Smaller but consistent with Apr-10 put buying cluster

Read-through: Additional confirmation of concentrated short-dated downside protection just above current spot.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Large established OI at $135–$140 (33,621 @ $135; 33,397 @ $140; plus 26,373 @ $136) — suggests institutional call interest / sold calls creating a resistance wall in that band.

Put additions: Concentrated short-dated put buying around $128–$133 (unusual activity in Apr-10 $128/$129/$132/$133) and notable May $130 put flow (OI=1,005) — institutions adding protection near spot.

GEX/DEX consistency: Somewhat consistent: positive Total GEX $143.8M implies dealers are long gamma (will buy dips), which meshes with pinning pressure around the 125–132 GEX concentration despite net premium skew toward puts.

OI clusters: $135 call cluster (33,621 OI) and $140 call cluster (33,397 OI) create a clear resistance wall; large put cluster at $100 (28,482 OI) is a structural floor far below spot; near-term put OI is concentrated at $120 (11,950) and deep ITM puts but immediate hedging is concentrated around $125–$132 via GEX.

Hedging evidence: Yes — strong evidence of protective put buying in the Apr-10 bucket and May-01 $130 puts. Limited evidence of systematic collars in-chain; more likely directional protection rather than coordinated collar issuance.

Max pain context: Max pain is $124 on Apr-10 (short-dated) while Apr-17/24 MP sits at $135/$136. Spot ($128.30) is currently above the nearest MP ($124) but short-dated flows are pushing dealer hedging into the 125–132 magnet which can keep price range-bound toward $124–135 area.

Signal vs Noise

~Deep-dated odd strikes (e.g., $310 Jun-18 puts, $10 Dec-18 puts) are tail volatility/synthetic structuring — unlikely to be directional for near-term price.

~Several Apr-10 concentrated puts — while directional, a portion is expiration-hedge activity (rolling vehicles) given proximity to expiry; expect some of this to be roll-related.

~Very wide IV differentials (e.g., Apr-10 $104 call IV 254.7%) suggest isolated volatility trades or mispriced block activity; treat these as flow noise unless matched by delta-moving hedges.

~High call OI at $135–$140 could include sellers (overwrites) rather than fresh bullish buyers; call OI alone isn't definitive bullish flow without large call premium inflows.

Key Conclusions

🔻Short-dated institutional put demand centered at $128–$133 (Apr-10) — signals near-term downside hedging or directional bearish interest.

🧭Dealers are sitting with positive GEX (+$143.8M) which supports pinning in the 125–132 band and will likely mute sharp declines (buying on dips).

🚧A clear resistance magnet exists at the $135–$140 call wall (large OI clusters) that could cap rallies and act as a selling zone for dealers/structured sellers.

⚠️Net premium is heavily negative (-$212.7M) despite call-dominant volume — indicates fewer, larger put trades driving premium flow (smart-money hedges).

👀Watch Apr-10 flow: further high vol/OI put prints at $128–$132 would confirm downside hedging; conversely, ramp in call premium into $135–$140 would shift bias rapidly.

Read the Flow analysis for MSTR for 2026-04-08. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.