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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $299.83EOD only
Max Pain
$298.00
Next expiry Jun 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.60
1.2% from close
Price Gap
-1.83
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
2.72
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
IWM Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Moderate bullish bias as spot at max pain ($299) with trending gamma and positive market momentum; dealers short gamma ($-144M) could amplify upside; VIX 18 supports order. Risk: gamma flip at $290.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Base 5: mixed signals; -1 GEX/flow contradiction; +1 spot at MP; +1 VIX ~18; final 6 moderate bullish.
Supports: Spot at MP, trending gamma, positive market context (SPY +1.65%, QQQ +2.49%), VIX 18.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, negative GEX, gamma flip risk at $290.
🎯Spot at max pain $299, pin action likely.
📈Trending gamma supports momentum continuation.
⚠️Negative GEX -$144M, dealer hedging may accelerate moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV normal vs HV, no premium.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative GEX -$144M, trending regime.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed, net neutral.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at max pain $299.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple near-term OPEX pins (6/29-7/1); gamma trending allows breakout.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$296.31$301.63
Ride momentum to $301.63 resistance.
Next 1 week
$293.00$304.94
Target $304.94, but gamma flip at $290 risk.
Next 2 weeks
$287.69$310.26
Range $287.69-$310.26, bias up but structural caps.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $299 (2026-06-29); $294 (2026-06-30); $296 (2026-07-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $296.31/$301.63; 1w $293.00/$304.94
Support: $290.00 · $287.69 · $284.00
Resistance: $299.00 · $310.26
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 162,302 (3.0% below spot)
Structural: Support $290 (gamma flip), $287.69; Resistance $299 (MP), $301.63 (2d), $310.26 (2w).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-144.1M

DEX: +182.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 162,302 (3.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma -$144M, flip ~$290; long delta +182M shares.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IWM IV inline with VIX ~18, no richness; implied move ~2.5% weekly.

Term structure: Flat to slightly backwardated near OPEX.

Skew: Skew neutral; no clear advantage.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$29.5M with put/call volume ratio 1.54 and OI ratio 2.76, indicating bearish put buying dominates.

Directional prints: 9.2 put 296 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol 108k vs OI 2.8k (38.8x). New put buying, bearish. Preferred: bought. 6.4 put 297 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol 114k vs OI 3k (38.3x). Bearish put accumulation. Preferred: bought. 14.5 put 294 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol 35k vs OI 1.1k (31.6x). OTM put speculation. Preferred: bought.

Unusual: 5.9 call 298 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol 181k vs OI 1.8k (100x). Massive call activity; low IV suggests sold. Preferred: sold. 2 call 299 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol 152k vs OI 4k (38x). OTM call selling. Preferred: sold. 25.1 put 288 OTM 2026-07-01 — Vol 9.5k vs OI 323 (29x). Far OTM put with high IV; hedging/speculation. Preferred: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $290 accelerating downside.
!Failure to hold $296 support breaks momentum.
!VIX spike above 20 from macro shock.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $296.00/$305.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias with max pain at 299, dealers short gamma amplifies move.
Time decay if spot stays below 295; max loss is net debit.
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $300.00 call
Why now: Spot near max pain, positive momentum supports near-term upside.
Theta decay; requires directional move within 2 weeks.
Call diagonalConditional
Sell 2026-07-17 $307.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $300.00 call
Why now: Elevated near-term IV can be sold; long-dated call captures trend.
Underlying moves against short leg; vol expansion hurts short.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $296.00/$305.00 call spread
Long $296 call, short $305 call, captures upside with limited cost.
Why this play: Defined risk, bullish, dealers short gamma amplifies upside.
Debit: $4.32-$5.28
Max loss: $5.28
BE: $301.28
Mgmt: Exit if IWM breaks $290; take profit near $305.
Traders seeking capped risk bullish play.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-17 $300.00 call
Buy $300 call for pure upside exposure.
Why this play: Unlimited upside, momentum supports near-term rally.
Debit: $4.82-$5.89
Max loss: $5.89
BE: $305.89
Mgmt: Roll if IV spikes; stop at $290.
Aggressive bullish traders.
#3
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $307.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $300.00 call
Short $307 call, long $300 call in next expiry.
Why this play: Sells near-term IV; captures longer-term trend.
Debit: $7.02-$8.57
Max loss: $8.57
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Adjust if IV expands; monitor gamma risk.
Traders expecting volatility contraction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIWM holds above $296 support and trades near $299 resistance → Enter Bull Call Spread (s1): long $296 call, short $305 call
IFIWM breaks above $299 with increasing volume → Enter Long Call (s2): buy $300 call
IFNear-term IV elevated and spot above $296 → Enter Call Diagonal (s3): short $307 call, long $300 call next expiry
Exit Triggers
EXITIWM breaks below $290 (gamma flip) → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Moderate bullish bias as IWM at max pain $299; short gamma amplifies upside. Key support $290 (gamma flip), resistance $299, $301.63. Ranked plays: Bull Call Spread (s1), Long Call (s2), Call Diagonal (s3). Invalidation below $290.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.