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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $294.64EOD only

Max Pain

$290.00

Next expiry Jun 16, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.48

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-4.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

3.16

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

IWM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

IWM range-bound near max pain $294 with bearish dealer gamma; downside risk to $290 flip but low vol suggests pin action into weekly expiry. Neutral-to-bearish tilt.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +1 VIX 16. Score 6.

Supports: Spot near max pain $294, low vol, support at $290 gamma flip, moderate VIX.
Conflicts: Negative GEX -$480M, mixed flow, broad market weakness (SPY -0.6%).

🟢Spot near max pain $294; likely pin action into expiry.

🔴Negative GEX -$480M; gamma flip at $290 exposes downside.

🟡Mixed flow; puts dominate but calls building.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol – IV near 20th percentile vs 20d HV, typical range.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX -$480M, trending regime with gamma flip at $290 (0.7% below spot).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium, put activity elevated (P/C ~1.2) but call interest also building.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot near $292, close to max pain $294; at MP with slight downside bias.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiration cycle with concentrated OI at $294 and $290 gamma flip; vol normal suggests range-bound action ahead of expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$288.41$295.75

Gamma flip $290 and bearish dealer positioning weigh; resistance at $295.

Next 1 week

$285.93$298.23

Range-bound between $285.93 and $298.23; max pain pull.

Next 2 weeks

$283.00$301.16

Wider range $283-$301; lack of catalyst for breakout.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $294 (2026-06-16); $293 (2026-06-17); $287 (2026-06-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $288.41/$295.75; 1w $285.93/$298.23

Support: $290.00 · $276.00 · $275.00

Resistance: $294.00 · $301.16

Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,284 (0.7% below spot)

Structural: Support $290 (gamma flip) and $276; resistance $294 (max pain) and $301.16 (1w guardrail).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-480.4M

DEX: +192.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,284 (0.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Negative GEX -$480M; gamma flip near $290; dealer short gamma below spot, accelerating declines. DEX +192.8M shares (long delta).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV ~18% slightly above VIX 16; not rich relative to sector, but elevated for typical range.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to weekly expiry; backwardation into next week as event risk passes.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts at $290 support offers premium. No clear vol arb.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Heavy put buying; net premium $209M, P/C vol 1.42, OI 3.20, bearish.

Directional prints: 7 put 292 OTM 2026-06-16 — Vol/OI 66.6x, new put buying, bearish bet below $292. 14.1 put 293 ITM 2026-06-16 — Vol/OI 64.5x, massive put accumulation, bearish positioning.

Unusual: 57.8 put 296 ITM 2026-06-16 — Vol/OI 36x, very high IV 57.8%, fear/hedge buying, bearish. 6.4 call 294 OTM 2026-06-16 — Vol/OI 53x but near zero premium; likely sold, not directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!Dealer gamma flip breach below $290 causes acceleration.

!Broad market weakness (SPY -0.6%) dragging small caps.

!Max pain gravitation keeps price anchored near $294, limiting upside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $294.00/$290.00 put spread Why now: Bear put spread profits from modest decline, limits risk from dealer gamma flip.	Max loss is debit paid if IWM rallies above bought strike.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread on IWM

Buy 2026-07-02 $294.00/$290.00 put spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $294/$290 put spread to profit from modest decline while capping downside from gamma acceleration.

Why this play: Only eligible candidate; aligns with bearish flow and max-pain gravitation near $294. Limits risk if dealer gamma flip occurs.

Debit: $1.69-$2.06

Max loss: $2.06

BE: $291.94

Mgmt: Exit if price holds above $294 or if volatility spikes; target max gain at $290.

Traders expecting IWM to drift lower into weekly expiry, seeking defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF IWM stalls at $294 resistance with bearish reversal signal → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $294/$290 put spread at market (target entry ~ $2.06)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF IWM closes above $294 (invalidation) or hits $290 target → THEN close the put spread for profit or loss

Tactical Summary

IWM neutral-to-bearish near max pain $294; key support $290 (gamma flip). Initiate bear put spread on rejection of $294; exit on invalidation above $294 or target at $290.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.