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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $292.08EOD only
Max Pain
$293.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.67
1.3% from close
Price Gap
+0.92
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
93
High premium
P/C OI
3.20
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
IWM Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

IWM bearish on expiration: spot below MP, negative gamma, bearish flow. High confidence.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base5 +2 GEX/flow +0.5 spot MP +0.5 VIX.
Supports: GEX/flow alignment, spot below MP, low VIX tail.
Conflicts: Resistance $293/$299, upside gamma if rally.
🐻Bearish flow & negative gamma align.
🎯Spot below max pain $293.
⚠️Gamma flip $270 may accelerate.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
VIX 18.44, vol normal for IWM.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma, GEX -$827M.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow, net premium negative.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 1.1% below MP $293.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiration day, bearish bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$286.18$293.58
Pin to $293, downside $286.
Next 1 week
$284.18$295.58
Test $284 support.
Next 2 weeks
$280.27$299.49
Break $280 possible.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $293 (2026-06-17); $288 (2026-06-18); $291 (2026-06-22)
EM guardrails: 2d $286.18/$293.58; 1w $284.18/$295.58
Support: $280.27 · $276.00 · $275.00
Resistance: $293.00 · $299.49
Gamma flip: ~$270.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 110,623 (6.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: $280.27, $276, $275. Resistance: $293, $299.49. Gamma flip $270. Max pain: $293/288/291. Guardrails: 2d $286-293, 1w $284-295.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-827.3M

DEX: +209.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$270 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 110,623 (6.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$827M, DEX +209.5M, gamma flip $270 (put OI 110k).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IWM IV rich vs VIX, typical small-cap premium.

Term structure: Contango near event, expected backwardation at expiry.

Skew: Put skew high; opportunity to sell puts after expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$269M, P/C vol ratio 2.17, OI ratio 3.15, heavy put dominance.

Directional prints: 0 put 292 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol 83K vs OI 1K (77x). Bought or sold. Prefer bought, bearish. 0 put 291 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol 70K vs OI 981 (71x). Bought or sold. Prefer bought, bearish. 1 put 290 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol 84K vs OI 2.4K (34x). Bought or sold. Prefer bought, bearish.

Unusual: 24.1 put 281 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 11.8K vs OI 142 (83x). Bought or sold. Prefer bought, bearish. 25.5 put 276 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 16.1K vs OI 333 (48x). Bought or sold. Prefer bought, bearish. 22.1 put 288 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 16.4K vs OI 340 (48x). Bought or sold. Prefer bought, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip $270.
!Spot above $293 squeeze.
!VIX spike.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-02 $285.00/$281.00 put spread
Why now: Put-heavy volumes and unusual 77x put at 292 suggest institutional bearish positioning.
Max loss if IWM rises above long put strike; time decay works against.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $287.50 put
Why now: Heavy put premium and negative gamma at 292 make a compelling bearish trade.
Time decay and IV crush if move is slow.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $285.00/$281.00 put spread
Buy $285/$281 put spread to profit from IWM decline; leverages institutional put activity.
Why this play: Defined risk with high put flow confirmation; spreads offer better risk/reward for bearish bias.
Debit: $0.90-$1.10
Max loss: $1.10
BE: $283.90
Mgmt: Exit if spot above $293; hold through expiration or take profit at 75% max gain.
Risk-managed traders seeking capped loss with high probability.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-02 $287.50 put
Buy $287.50 put to capture downside from negative gamma and bearish flow.
Why this play: Highest payout if bear move materializes; matches aggressive conviction.
Debit: $3.95-$4.82
Max loss: $4.82
BE: $282.68
Mgmt: Stop loss if spot breaches $293; consider rolling on time decay if flat.
Aggressive traders willing to risk full premium for large upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF IWM trades at or below $285 → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-07-02 $285/$281 put spread
IFIF IWM trades below $282 with bearish momentum → Enter long put: buy 2026-07-02 $287.50 put
Exit Triggers
EXITIF IWM trades above $293 → Close both bear put spread and long put positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, negative gamma, heavy put flow. Prefer bear put spread for defined risk; long put for aggressive conviction. Invalidation at $293. Guardrails: 2d $286-293, 1w $284-295. Enter on breakdown below $285 or $282.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.