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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $298.18EOD only
Max Pain
$293.00
Next expiry Jun 23, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.80
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-5.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
2.61
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
IWM Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by negative dealer gamma and bearish flow, with spot near max pain. Normal vol supports trend continuation. Key support at $290 is critical.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19. Total 8.5.
Supports: Negative gamma, bearish flow, spot near MP.
Conflicts: Normal vol, no clear catalyst for breakdown.
📉Negative gamma (-$400M) accelerates downside.
📊Bearish flow net short premium.
🛑Gamma flip at $290 is key support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol with VIX ~19.5; IWM IV in line, no extreme.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma (-$400.3M) trending; flip at ~$290 (1.8% below spot).
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow: net short premium, aligned with negative gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot ~$295.3 vs max pain $297 (0.6% diff), neutral pin.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative gamma and bearish flow suggest sustained pressure; key support at $290 defines next leg.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$291.93$298.71
Test 2d support $291.93.
Next 1 week
$288.15$302.49
Break below $290 targets $288.
Next 2 weeks
$283.16$307.48
Sustained selling to $283 if gamma flip triggers.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $297 (2026-06-23); $295 (2026-06-24); $293 (2026-06-25)
EM guardrails: 2d $291.93/$298.71; 1w $288.15/$302.49
Support: $290.00 · $283.16 · $280.00
Resistance: $297.00 · $307.48
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,349 (1.8% below spot)
Structural: Support $290 (gamma flip), $283; Resistance $297, $307. EM guardrails: 2d $291.93/$298.71, 1w $288.15/$302.49.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-400.3M

DEX: +188.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,349 (1.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma -$400.3M; they hedge by selling into weakness, positioning for downside acceleration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IWM IV inline with VIX ~19.5, not cheap or rich.

Term structure: Normal contango, no event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated on bearish flow; no actionable vol opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bearish net premium -$112.4M, put/call vol ratio 2.09 confirms bearish flow.

Directional prints: 0 put 296 ITM 2026-06-23 — Vol/OI 95.4; high put volume suggests aggressive buying for downside; likely bought, bearish. 7 call 297.5 OTM 2026-06-23 — Vol/OI 109.3; extreme OTM call volume, likely sold by bears; preferred read: sold.

Unusual: 5.7 call 297 OTM 2026-06-23 — Vol/OI 109.2; massive call volume vs low OI, likely sold, bearish. 1.6 put 295 OTM 2026-06-23 — Vol/OI 68.1; high OTM put volume, likely bought for downside speculation; bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $290 could trigger sharp reversal if held.
!Bearish flow may exhaust, leading to bounce.
!Normal vol limits directional conviction.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadStrong
Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00/$290.00 put spread
Why now: Negative dealer gamma and bearish flow favor downside.
Support at 290 limits profit; width caps upside.
Long putStrong
Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00 put
Why now: High probability downside due to flow and gamma.
Time decay if move delayed; support at 290.
Bearish risk reversalStrong
Buy 2026-08-21 $290.00 put / sell 2026-08-21 $300.00 call
Why now: Negative net gamma and put premium support downside.
Short call caps upside; gap risk if rally.

Top Plays

#1
Defined-Risk Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00/$290.00 put spread
Buy $295 put, sell $290 put to cap risk and still profit if IWM declines to $290.
Why this play: Best risk/reward for bearish bias with normal vol and support near $290.
Debit: $1.74-$2.13
Max loss: $2.13
BE: $292.87
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if IWM breaks above $297 invalidation.
Traders seeking defined risk with high probability of success.
#2
Outright Long Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00 put
Buy $295 put for unlimited downside gain if IWM drops sharply.
Why this play: Higher leverage but more cost; suits aggressive bearish view.
Debit: $8.95-$10.94
Max loss: $10.94
BE: $284.06
Mgmt: Set stop at cost if IWM holds $295; target $290 or below.
Aggressive traders with conviction in a sharp decline.
#3
Bearish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-08-21 $290.00 put / sell 2026-08-21 $300.00 call
Buy $290 put, sell $300 call; profits if IWM stays below $300.
Why this play: Lower cost but unlimited loss potential; less preferred.
Credit: $1.44-$1.76
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $301.76
Mgmt: Close if IWM approaches $300; monitor upside risk.
Traders with high conviction IWM won't rally above $300.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF IWM trades below $297 with bearish flow and normal vol → Buy 2026-08-21 $295/$290 put spread for debit $1.74-$2.13
IFIF IWM breaks below $295 support with rising put premium → Buy 2026-08-21 $295 put for debit $8.95-$10.94
Exit Triggers
EXITIF IWM breaks above $297 or shows sustained rally → Close $295/$290 put spread to limit loss
EXITIF IWM holds above $295 or approaches $290 base → Close $295 put to take profit or cut loss

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with key support at $290 (gamma flip) and resistance at $297. Normal vol favors trend. Best play: bear put spread for defined risk. Exit if $297 broken. Long put for aggressive downside. Monitor gamma flip for reversal risk.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.