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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $298.91EOD only

Max Pain

$294.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.33

1.1% from close

Price Gap

-4.91

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.64

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

IWM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias led by negative flow and spot above max pain ($295). Dealer gamma pinning ($+333.5M) may limit downside near $295, but break below opens $290. Prefer short skew positioning.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive pinning; +0.5 spot 1.6% above MP; +0.5 VIX 18 moderate.

Supports: Gamma pinning at $295, dealer hedging, support $295-$290.
Conflicts: Bearish flow, spot above MP, VIX elevated.

🛑Bearish Flow: Put/call ratio elevated, net premium negative.

📌Dealer Pin: GEX +$333.5M pins near $295; gamma flip $290.

📉Above Max Pain: Spot $300 vs MP $295, reversion typical.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol Normal: IV in line with 20-day range, VIX 18.4 moderate.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$333.5M, spot above max pain $295, gamma flip ~$290.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish: Net premium negative, P/C ratio elevated, suggests hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above: Spot ~$300 vs MP $295 (1.6% above), reversion risk.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Gamma pinning and flow bearish ahead of weekly OPEX, spot above MP suggests reversion but dealer long gamma limits downside.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$296.22$303.43

Gamma pinning near $295; flow bearish but dealer absorbs.

Next 1 week

$293.93$305.72

Key support $293.93-$295; break below opens $290.

Next 2 weeks

$289.95$309.71

Large put OI at $290, support $289.95.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $295 (2026-06-26); $298 (2026-06-29); $292 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 2d $296.22/$303.43; 1w $293.93/$305.72

Support: $295.00 · $290.00 · $289.95

Resistance: $309.71

Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 120,051 (3.3% below spot)

Structural: EM guardrails: 2d $296.22/$303.43; 1w $293.93/$305.72. Max pain: $295 (6/26), $298 (6/29), $292 (6/30). Support: $295, $290, $289.95. Resistance: $309.71. Gamma flip: ~$290.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+333.5M

DEX: +190.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 120,051 (3.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$333.5M (positive, pinning); DEX +190.5M shares (long); Gamma flip $290.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV moderate vs VIX 18.4, not cheap nor rich.

Term structure: Normal contango, no event kinks near term.

Skew: Put skew slightly elevated, but no clear opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative net premium of -$68M with P/C volume ratio 2.0 indicates heavy put flow, bearish sentiment.

Directional prints: 6.1 put 298 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 126k vs OI 3k (42x): heavy opening. Likely bought puts for bearish bet; if sold, bullish. Read: bearish put buying. 12.5 put 297.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 72k vs OI 2.4k (30x): new positions. Aggressive put buying for downside; sold would be neutral. Read: bearish. 22.2 put 299 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 60k vs OI 2.7k (22x): opening. ITM put buying shows bearish conviction; sold would be bullish. Read: bearish.

Unusual: 6.1 put 298 OTM 2026-06-26 — 42x vol/OI ratio at $298 put: massive OTM put volume, unusual aggressive bearish activity. 0 call 298 ITM 2026-06-26 — 33x vol/OI ratio at $298 call: heavy ITM call volume, could be bullish or bearish hedging; significant. 11.2 put 297 OTM 2026-06-26 — 33x vol/OI ratio at $297 put: OTM put volume spike, consistent with bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip $290 triggers cascade.

!VIX spike above 20 could accelerate downside.

!Flow reversal if spot holds above $300.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $309.00/$314.00 call spread Why now: Heavy put flow and spot above max pain ($295) favor short skew; limited upside expected.	Break below $290 could cause short call to be tested; VIX spike adds risk.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $295.00/$285.00 put spread Why now: Lead directional print shows large put buying; dealer gamma pin at $295 may break.	If spot holds above $300, spread loses value; time decay works against.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $293.00 put Why now: Flow and sentiment strongly bearish; spot below $295 could accelerate to $290.	Time decay if move delayed; VIX spike increases cost.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread on IWM

Buy 2026-07-10 $295.00/$285.00 put spread

Buy $295/$285 put spread to profit from expected downside through gamma flip.

Why this play: Heavy put flow and dealer gamma pin at $295 make a break below likely, aligning with bearish thesis.

Debit: $1.96-$2.39

Max loss: $2.39

BE: $292.61

Mgmt: Exit if spot stays above $300; roll if VIX spikes above 20.

Traders seeking defined risk with high probability of gain if spot breaks $295.

Long Put on IWM

Buy 2026-07-10 $293.00 put

Buy $293 put to capture downside acceleration below gamma flip level.

Why this play: Direct play on bearish flow and sentiment, with potential for rapid move to $290.

Debit: $2.58-$3.15

Max loss: $3.15

BE: $289.85

Mgmt: Set stop at $295; consider taking profit at $290.

Aggressive traders comfortable with higher vega and theta risk.

Call Credit Spread on IWM

Sell 2026-07-10 $309.00/$314.00 call spread

Sell $309/$314 call spread to profit from capped upside and decay.

Why this play: Limited upside expected, but less direct than put spreads; ranks lower due to lower conviction.

Credit: $0.64-$0.79

Max loss: $4.21

BE: $309.79

Mgmt: Monitor spot; close if spot approaches $309.

Traders preferring neutral-bearish with lower delta risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF IWM breaks below $295 with volume → THEN buy the 2026-07-10 $295/$285 put spread for $1.96-$2.39

IFIF IWM drops below $293 → THEN buy the 2026-07-10 $293 put for $2.58-$3.15

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF IWM stays above $300 → THEN close bear put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF IWM reaches $290 → THEN take profit on long put

EXITIF IWM approaches $309.71 → THEN close call credit spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias: heavy put flow and dealer gamma pin at $295. Break below $295 opens path to $290 gamma flip. Prefer defined-risk bear put spread $295/$285. Monitor VIX; exit if spot regains $300 or approaches $309.71.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.