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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $292.95EOD only
Max Pain
$288.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.62
1.2% from close
Price Gap
-4.95
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
2.72
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
IWM Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
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Outlook

IWM rallied 1.7% but faces dealer gamma resistance near $290. Neutral-bearish short-term, structural gamma support.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot above max pain; +0.5 VIX 19. Net neutral.
Supports: Strong put OI at $290 gamma flip; EM 2d low $286.32.
Conflicts: Negative GEX indicates dealer hedging; flow mixed; VIX elevated 19.
⚠️Gamma flip near $290 from 116K put OI concentration.
🛑Dealer gamma -$303.8M; hedging may cap upside.
📊Spot 1.9% above max pain $285; pin probability high.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Vol normal; VIX 19.44. IWM IV (19.5) near VIX, not rich.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma trending negative; GEX -$303.8M. Flip near $290.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow mixed; no clear net premium bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot 1.9% above max pain $285, bullish lean but near gamma flip.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Trending regime with mixed flow, negative GEX suggests persistent hedging over multi-week horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$286.32$294.51
Range $286-294; support $286.32, resistance $294.51.
Next 1 week
$283.61$297.21
Range $283-297; below $283 bearish.
Next 2 weeks
$278.23$302.59
Range $278-302; structural support $278.23.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $285 (2026-06-11); $285 (2026-06-12); $287 (2026-06-15)
EM guardrails: 2d $286.32/$294.51; 1w $283.61/$297.21
Support: $290.00 · $276.00 · $275.00
Resistance: $302.59
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,008 (0.1% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $285 (6/11-6/12), $287 (6/15). Support $290 (gamma flip), $276, $275. Resistance $302.59.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-303.8M

DEX: +233.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,008 (0.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$303.8M, DEX +233.7M shares. Gamma flip ~$290 (put OI 116K). Negative gamma: dealer sells rallies, buys dips.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IWM IV ~19.5 vs VIX 19.44; roughly in line, not rich or cheap. Neutral for positioning.

Term structure: Term structure flat to slight contango; no event kinks. Near-term IV (19.6) similar to 2-week (19.4).

Skew: Put skew elevated at $290 due to 116K OI; consider put credit spreads or short puts for premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive ($192M) despite put volume ratio 1.43 and OI ratio 2.72, indicating dominant call premium.

Directional prints: 28.6 call 287 ITM 2026-06-11 — Vol/OI 78x, high IV; likely bought for upside; bullish read. 18.4 put 284 OTM 2026-06-11 — Vol/OI 77x, near-zero premium; likely sold; bullish (put selling).

Unusual: 5.8 put 289 OTM 2026-06-11 — Vol/OI 107x, low IV; heavy put selling; bullish. 7.8 put 288 OTM 2026-06-11 — Vol/OI 95x; likely sold puts; bullish. 4.9 call 291 OTM 2026-06-11 — Vol/OI 44x with 0.07 premium; likely sold; bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure of gamma flip at $290 leads to acceleration lower.
!Upside breakout above $294.51 on strong momentum.
!Flow shift to bullish could negate negative GEX.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $290.00/$289.00 put spread
Why now: Bear put spread profits from moderate decline, defined risk, aligns with short-term bearish lean.
If IWM rallies above $290, spread loses value; max loss is net debit paid.
Iron condorModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $290.00/$289.00 put wing and $303.00/$304.00 call wing
Why now: Volatility premium harvest with wings defining risk, aligns with neutral medium-term view.
Breakout beyond wings causes loss; max loss is wing width minus credit. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $290.00/$289.00 put spread
Profits from moderate decline below $290; tight spread for high probability.
Why this play: Aligns with short-term bearish lean and put flow; defined risk.
Debit: $0.38-$0.47
Max loss: $0.47
BE: $289.53
Mgmt: Exit if above $302.59 or before expiration.
Traders expecting bearish move with controlled risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIWM trades below $290.00 (gamma flip) → Enter IWM_BEAR_PUT_SPREAD_1 at limit 0.38-0.47
Exit Triggers
EXITIWM rallies above $302.59 → Exit IWM_BEAR_PUT_SPREAD_1 immediately

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish bias; gamma support at $290, resistance $302.59. Bear put spread on IWM defined-risk play for decline below $290. Invalidate above $302.59.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.