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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $118.96EOD only
Max Pain
$109.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.97
6.7% from close
Price Gap
-9.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
59
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.09
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
INTC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 30, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/23, 25 days out. IV is extremely elevated at 72%, creating a high-probability IV crush play. The stock is in a high-vol, trending regime with bullish flow, but sits 8.5% below max pain, suggesting a potential gravity pull higher. The best strategy is a short premium play to harvest the inflated IV, with a directional bias towards a move up into max pain.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 for clear IV term structure kink; +0.5 for high IV and crush potential; -0 for data quality
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at the 4/24 expiration (70.4% vs 63-64% in surrounding weeks), strongly confirming an implied earnings date of 4/23.
⚠️Earnings date is inferred from IV term structure kink at 4/24 expiration. Not officially confirmed.
📈Stock sits 8.5% below persistent max pain at $45 across multiple expirations—a strong gravitational magnet.
💥Gamma regime is 'Trending' (GEX -$9M). Dealers are short gamma and may amplify moves, increasing volatility.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 72%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-9.0M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$15.1M, P/C 0.39)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 8.5% (spot $41.17 vs MP $45)
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Very low gamma flip at ~$15 due to massive put OI wall. Above $15, dealers are short gamma and may amplify moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (25 days)inferred_from_iv_kink

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (26d): ±$6.15 (14.9%)
  • 5/01 (33d): ±$6.83 (16.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/24 expiration (70.4% IV). IV drops to 63-65% in surrounding weeks (4/17, 5/01).

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-earnings, back to low 60s% range.

Skew: Flow is heavily bullish (P/C 0.39), but massive OI in deep OTM puts ($15, $20) creates a skewed risk profile.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for reliable move vs. EM comparison.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters resulted in a positive EPS surprise.

Key Levels

1Max Pain: $45
2Gamma Flip: ~$15
3EM 4/24: $35.02 - $47.32
4Heavy Call OI: $40, $50
5Heavy Put OI: $15, $20, $30

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish premium flow into $70C (+$5.2M net) and $42C (+$4.2M net).

Large, likely institutional, bets on significant upside over the medium term.

Unusual activity in 4/24 $42C (10,469 vol vs 39 OI) and 4/02 $41.5C (1,822 vol).

Traders positioning for a move toward $42 around the earnings period.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell 4/24 $35/$30 Put Spread & Sell 4/24 $47/$52 Call Spread
Credit: $1.10-$1.40
Max loss: $3.90
Max gain: $1.25
BE: $31.25 / $50.75
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before suspected earnings (mid-April).
Capitalizes on extreme IV (70.4%) with a high probability of crush. Wide wings account for the large expected move while collecting premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the wide $35-$47 expected move range and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond the short strikes ($30 or $52).
Bull Call Spread (Directional/Max Pain)
Buy 4/24 $41 Call / Sell 4/24 $45 Call
Max loss: Debit Paid
Max gain: $4.00 - Debit
BE: $41 + Debit
Trigger: On any pullback toward $40 support.
Bullish flow (P/C 0.39) and spot trading 8.5% below persistent max pain at $45 create a gravitational pull. Defined risk play for a move higher.
Outperforms: Stock rallies into the $45 max pain level post-earnings or on positive guidance.
Underperforms: Stock fails to rally or sells off post-earnings.
Long Put Butterfly (Pinning Play)
Buy 1x 4/24 $40 Put, Sell 2x 4/24 $45 Put, Buy 1x 4/24 $50 Put
Max loss: Debit Paid
Max gain: $5.00 - Debit
BE: $40 + Debit and $50 - Debit
Trigger: Enter if IV remains high and stock approaches $45 ahead of earnings.
Max pain is a strong magnet at $45 across nearly all near-term expirations. This is a high-risk, high-reward bet on extreme pinning.
Outperforms: Stock pins exactly at $45 (max pain) at the 4/24 expiration.
Underperforms: Stock moves significantly away from $45, especially below $40.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Expected move is massive (±14.9%). A guidance-driven move could easily exceed these bounds.
!IV Crush: A successful short premium trade requires IV to drop significantly. If macro vol (VIX) remains high, crush may be less pronounced.
!Liquidity: OI and volume are sufficient for standard strategies, but be cautious with very wide spreads.
!Sizing: Size short premium positions small due to the large potential move. The low gamma flip at $15 is a tail risk warning.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 4/24 expiration as we approach the suspected 4/23 earnings date.
?Spot price action relative to the $45 max pain level.
?Any official confirmation of the Q1 2026 earnings date.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 30, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.