base 5; +2 high IV; +1 pinning GEX; -1 spot below max pain; -1 earnings in 4 weeks
Term structure: Humped at May 1 expiration (73.0% IV), elevated across all expirations.
Spot vs MP: Spot $68.90 is below nearest max pain ($73) by 5.6%.
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$5.0M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Gamma flip estimate ~$60, near the large $60 Put OI wall (13,829). Below this, positive GEX may provide support.
OI concentrations: Major OI: $80 Call (27,742), $100 Call (21,819), $60 Put (13,829), $50 Put (12,595), $70 Put (12,363). Call walls far above, put support at $70, $60, and $50.
#1put spread
Sell $62/$60 Put Spread for 2026-05-08 (36 DTE)
High IV (69.6%) provides rich premium. Strikes are 10% and 13% below spot, with the short strike above the $60 gamma flip and major OI support. The 36 DTE captures high IV before the 4/29 earnings IV crush. Positive GEX supports a pinning/range-bound environment. Narrower spread reduces risk per contract.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.46 credit remaining). Roll down/out if HOOD closes below $64. Exit entirely on a weekly close below $61.30 (breakeven). Close position by 4/22, one week before earnings.
#2iron condor
Sell $62/$60 Put Spread & Sell $80/$85 Call Spread for 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Capitalizes on peak IV (73.0%) and a wide expected move (±$11.30). Put wing uses the $60 major OI support level; call wing targets the massive $80 call wall. Structure stays beyond the 29-day expected move range ($57.60 - $80.20). Positive GEX favors range-bound price action.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently: roll put side up if spot approaches $64; roll call side up if spot approaches $78. Close by 4/22 before earnings.
#3call credit spread
Sell $75/$80 Call Spread for 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Targets the major $75 and $80 call walls (OI data shows $80 is largest). Spot is far below these levels, and the 22-day expected move high is $77.50. Positive GEX makes sustained rallies difficult, favoring short calls. This is a tactical play outside of earnings.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit if HOOD closes above $74 (approaching short strike). Do not roll; take the loss if breached.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $60 Put for 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
For those willing to take assignment. Strike is 13% below spot, at the $60 gamma flip support and major OI wall. High IV (61.7%) yields an attractive ~3.2% return on capital in 15 days. Positive GEX provides support. Shorter DTE reduces earnings risk.
Mgmt: Roll down and out (e.g., to 45 DTE at the $55 strike) if price breaches $62. Consider taking assignment below $60 only if bullish long-term. Close before 4/22 if not assigned.
!Earnings on 2026-04-29 — Never sell naked options through earnings. Close or roll all short premium positions by 4/22 to capture IV crush and avoid event risk.
!Gamma Flip at ~$60 — A break below this level triggers a shift in dealer hedging. While GEX is now positive, a close below $60 could accelerate a downtrend. Exit all short put positions.
!Massive Far-Dated Put Buying — Significant premium flow into $115-$145 puts (Apr-May expirations) with IV >100% suggests persistent institutional hedging or bearish bets.
!Spot Below Max Pain — 5.6% gap suggests the market is under pressure. While positive GEX and high IV provide a cushion, the directional bias is still lower.
!Unusual Call Activity Near-Term — High volume in 4/10 $73, $74 calls indicates potential for a short-term squeeze. Call credit spreads should be placed above this noise ($75+).
!IV Crush Post-Earnings — May 1 expiration has 73% IV. Expect a significant crush after 4/29 earnings. Plan to be out of May positions before the event.