Term structure: Humped at May expirations (~75% IV), elevated across all expirations.
Spot vs MP: Spot $66.16 is below nearest max pain ($73) by 9.4%.
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$14.0M — strongly pro-cyclical, dealers amplify moves).
Gamma flip: ~$50.00 — Gamma flip estimated at $50, near the large $50 Put OI wall. Below this, negative GEX suggests accelerated selling pressure.
OI concentrations: Major OI: $80 Call (27.9K), $100 Call (21.5K), $50 Put (12.5K), $70 Put (12.5K). Call walls far above, put support at $70 and $50.
#1put spread
Sell $60/$55 Put Spread for 2026-05-15 (47 DTE)
High IV (75.2%) provides rich premium. Strikes are 9.3% below spot and well above the estimated $50 gamma flip, offering a significant buffer. The $50 put OI wall (12,510) provides a strong support magnet far below. Defined risk is essential in the negative GEX regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$1.00 credit remaining). Roll down/out if HOOD closes below $62. Exit entirely on a weekly close below $60.
#2call credit spread
Sell $75/$80 Call Spread for 2026-04-17 (19 DTE)
Targets the major $75 and $80 call walls (11,967 & 27,905 OI). Spot is far below these levels, and the 19-day expected move high is $74.74. The negative GEX regime makes sustained rallies difficult, favoring short calls. This is a tactical, shorter-DTE play.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit if HOOD closes above $74 (below the short strike). Do not roll; take the loss if breached.
#3iron condor
Sell $60/$55 Put Spread & Sell $80/$85 Call Spread for 2026-05-01 (33 DTE)
Capitalizes on high IV (72.4%) and a wide expected move (±$11.45). Wings are placed outside major OI clusters ($70 Put, $80 Call) and beyond the 33-day expected move range ($54.71 - $77.61). The call side targets the $80 call wall, the put side stays above the gamma flip.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently: roll put side up if spot approaches $62; roll call side up if spot approaches $78.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $57.50 Put for 2026-04-24 (26 DTE)
For those willing to take assignment. Strike is 13.1% below spot, above the $50 gamma flip, and near the 26-day expected move low ($56.26). High IV (70.5%) yields an attractive 4.3%+ return on capital. The large distance to spot provides a margin of safety.
Mgmt: Roll down and out (e.g., to 60 DTE at the $55 strike) if price breaches $60. Consider taking assignment below $57.50 only if bullish long-term.
!Gamma Flip at ~$50 — A break below this level triggers significant negative dealer gamma, potentially accelerating a downtrend. Exit all short put positions.
!Trending GEX Regime Worsened (GEX -$14.0M) — Negative GEX has tripled since the last report. This strongly favors directional moves over pinning. Favor defined-risk spreads.
!Massive Far-Dated Put Buying Continues — Significant premium flow into $115-$145 puts (Apr-May expirations) with IV >100% suggests persistent institutional hedging or bearish bets.
!Earnings on 2026-04-29 — Never sell naked options through earnings. Close or roll all short premium positions at least one week prior to capture IV crush.
!Spot Far Below Max Pain — 9.4% gap suggests the market is under pressure. While this can provide a cushion for put sellers, the negative GEX indicates the trend may continue.
!Unusual Call Activity Near-Term — High volume in 4/2 $67, $69 calls indicates potential for a short-term squeeze. Call credit spreads should be placed above this noise.