base 5; +2 high IV; +1 spot far below max pain; -2 trending GEX; -1 earnings in 4 weeks
Term structure: Humped at May expirations (~74% IV), elevated across all expirations.
Spot vs MP: Spot $66.11 is below nearest max pain ($73) by 9.4%.
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$11.2M — pro-cyclical, dealers amplify moves).
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Gamma flip estimate revised to ~$60, near the large $60 Put OI wall (13,418). Below this, negative GEX suggests accelerated selling pressure.
OI concentrations: Major OI: $80 Call (27,962), $100 Call (21,511), $60 Put (13,418), $50 Put (12,542), $70 Put (12,481). Call walls far above, put support at $70, $60, and $50.
#1put spread
Sell $62/$57 Put Spread for 2026-05-08 (39 DTE)
High IV (74.8%) provides rich premium. Strikes are 6.2% and 13.8% below spot, well above the revised $60 gamma flip. The 39 DTE captures peak IV before the 4/29 earnings IV crush. Defined risk is essential in the negative GEX regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.91 credit remaining). Roll down/out if HOOD closes below $64. Exit entirely on a weekly close below $60.60 (breakeven). Close position by 4/22, one week before earnings.
#2call credit spread
Sell $75/$80 Call Spread for 2026-04-24 (25 DTE)
Targets the major $75 and $80 call walls (11,979 & 27,962 OI). Spot is far below these levels, and the 25-day expected move high is $75.44. The negative GEX regime makes sustained rallies difficult, favoring short calls. This is a tactical play outside of earnings.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit if HOOD closes above $74 (approaching short strike). Do not roll; take the loss if breached.
#3iron condor
Sell $62/$57 Put Spread & Sell $80/$85 Call Spread for 2026-05-01 (32 DTE)
Capitalizes on high IV (71.7%) and a wide expected move (±$11.17). Wings are placed outside major OI clusters ($70 Put, $80 Call) and beyond the 32-day expected move range ($54.94 - $77.29). The call side targets the $80 call wall, the put side stays above the $60 gamma flip.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently: roll put side up if spot approaches $64; roll call side up if spot approaches $78. Close by 4/22 before earnings.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $60 Put for 2026-04-17 (18 DTE)
For those willing to take assignment. Strike is 9.2% below spot, at the revised $60 gamma flip support, and near the 18-day expected move low ($58.19). High IV (67.8%) yields an attractive ~3.2% return on capital in 18 days. Shorter DTE reduces earnings risk.
Mgmt: Roll down and out (e.g., to 45 DTE at the $57 strike) if price breaches $62. Consider taking assignment below $60 only if bullish long-term. Close before 4/22 if not assigned.
!Gamma Flip at ~$60 — A break below this level (revised from $50) triggers significant negative dealer gamma, potentially accelerating a downtrend. Exit all short put positions.
!Trending GEX Regime (GEX -$11.2M) — Negative GEX strongly favors directional moves over pinning. Favor defined-risk spreads and strict stop-outs.
!Earnings on 2026-04-29 — Never sell naked options through earnings. Close or roll all short premium positions by 4/22 to capture IV crush and avoid event risk.
!Massive Far-Dated Put Buying — Significant premium flow into $115-$145 puts (Apr-May expirations) with IV >100% suggests persistent institutional hedging or bearish bets.
!Unusual Call Activity Near-Term — High volume in 4/10 $69, $71 calls indicates potential for a short-term squeeze. Call credit spreads should be placed above this noise ($75+).
!Spot Far Below Max Pain — 9.4% gap suggests the market is under pressure. While this provides a cushion for put sellers, the negative GEX indicates the trend may continue lower.