Earnings Verdict
GS reports Jul 14, 100% beat rate. Flow bearish with heavy puts; spot below max pain. Caution advised.
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 3.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: 100% beat rate vs. heavy put flow and spot below MP
⚠️100% beat rate but heavy puts caution
📈Historical beat rate perfect
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$925.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,735 (9.3% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-14 (18 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$34.72 (3.4%)
- 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$50.20 (4.9%)
- 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$69.93 (6.9%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Upward sloping: 3.4% (6d) to 6.9% (21d)
Crush estimate: Implied vol crush ~20-30% after event
Skew: Put skew elevated; heavy 7/2 $1000 and 7/10 $980 puts
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: N/A
Directional bias: Bullish (5/5 beats)
Key Levels
1$925.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $984.88/$1054.33
3Max pain pins: $1055 (2026-06-26); $1050 (2026-07-02); $1065 (2026-07-10)
Flow Highlights
7/2 $1000 put bought 477x (4.2x OI)
Downside hedging into earnings
8/21 $1100 call bought 2648x (5.5x OI)
Speculative bullish bet far out
Strategies
Bullish Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $1020.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1000.00 call
Trigger: Close if spot breaches $1000 or adjust if IV expands significantly.
100% beat rate and upward term structure support owning back-month call, selling front-month OTM call.
Outperforms: Expresses directional bullish edge while reducing theta cost via short front-month premium.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Spot 3.4% below max pain increases pin risk
!Elevated put OI suggests hedging pressure
!VIX 18 but trending, may amplify moves
What to Watch
?Max pain $1050 (7/2) and $1065 (7/10)
?Gamma flip at $925 put OI concentration
?EM guardrails $985/$1054