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GS

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)Close $982.12EOD only
Max Pain
$930.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$21.40
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-52.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
GS Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/13 (7 days out). IV elevated at 47.3% for 4/17, crush play viable given term structure kink. Historical EPS beat rate 100% suggests upside bias, but pinning forces and max pain at $840-$850 create resistance.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP
Most important: Strong pinning regime with +$5.7M GEX and max pain clusters near $840-$850; stock likely to gravitate lower toward these levels post-earnings unless a large surprise overcomes dealer hedging.
📅Earnings expected 4/13 (7 days out), EPS est $15.98.
📊Historical EPS beat rate 100% with surprises +0.10 to +0.20.
📍Strong pinning: GEX +$5.7M, max pain $840-$850, spot above at $866.05.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$740.00 — Below $740, dealers amplify moves; far from spot at -14.6%.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-13 (7 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (11d): ±$53.65 (6.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Kink at 4/17 (47.3% vs 41.8% 4/10 and 44.2% 4/24), elevated for earnings.

Crush estimate: ~5-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~40% range.

Skew: P/C volume ratio 1.15 indicates put buying pressure, but OI ratio 0.88 shows more call OI; mixed sentiment.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No historical move data provided; EPS surprises consistently positive (+0.10 to +0.20).

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats suggest upside potential, but no gap data.

Key Levels

1$840.00
2$850.00
3$865.00
4$900.00
5$925.00
6$930.25

Flow Highlights

Heavy $800P 4/10 buying (523 vol vs 320 OI, 1.6x) and $830P 4/10 (383 vol vs 207 OI, 1.9x).

Near-term put flow for downside protection or earnings hedge.

Large net premium negative at $800.00 (-$2.0M) and $970.00 (-$1.9M) from put buying.

Significant bearish flow at strikes below spot, aligning with pinning to max pain.

Strategies

Short strangle (IV crush)
Sell $800P x $950C 4/17
Credit: $8.00-$12.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $10.00
BE: 788.0 / 962.0
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV >45%.
Elevated IV at 47.3% for 4/17, expected crush back to ~40%. Strikes set outside EM to capture premium decay.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($812.40-$919.70) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >20% or pinning fails.
Bull call spread (directional)
Buy $860C / Sell $900C 4/17
Max loss: $40.00
Max gain: $0.00
BE: 870.0
Trigger: Enter if spot shows strength above $865 support.
Historical 100% EPS beat rate suggests upside, but capped at $900 call OI wall to manage pinning risk.
Outperforms: Stock rallies toward $900 resistance post-earnings, leveraging historical EPS beats.
Underperforms: Stock pins near max pain $840-$850 or gaps down.
Long put butterfly (pinning play)
Buy 1x $840P / Sell 2x $850P / Buy 1x $860P 4/17
Max loss: $10.00
Max gain: $10.00
BE: 845.0 / 855.0
Trigger: Enter if spot near $866 and pinning forces evident.
Max pain at $840 (4/10) and $850 (4/17) with +GEX pin magnets; targets tight range for pinning post-earnings.
Outperforms: Stock pins between $845-$855, maximizing near max pain clusters.
Underperforms: Stock moves outside $840-$860 range.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±6.2% ($53.65) but historical beats could drive larger upside move; pinning may suppress volatility.
!IV crush: Estimated 5-10 vol pts drop post-earnings; short premium strategies benefit, long vol suffers.
!Liquidity: Sufficient with 317,602 total OI and 38,708 volume, but watch wide spreads on OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Moderate due to pinning regime; avoid oversized directional bets given dealer hedging forces.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/13 earnings
?Spot action relative to $840-$850 max pain levels
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $290, $370 puts) for tail risk signals
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.