Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 4/13 (7 days out). IV elevated at 47.3% for 4/17, crush play viable given term structure kink. Historical EPS beat rate 100% suggests upside bias, but pinning forces and max pain at $840-$850 create resistance.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP
Most important: Strong pinning regime with +$5.7M GEX and max pain clusters near $840-$850; stock likely to gravitate lower toward these levels post-earnings unless a large surprise overcomes dealer hedging.
📅Earnings expected 4/13 (7 days out), EPS est $15.98.
📊Historical EPS beat rate 100% with surprises +0.10 to +0.20.
📍Strong pinning: GEX +$5.7M, max pain $840-$850, spot above at $866.05.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$740.00 — Below $740, dealers amplify moves; far from spot at -14.6%.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-13 (7 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/17 (11d): ±$53.65 (6.2%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Kink at 4/17 (47.3% vs 41.8% 4/10 and 44.2% 4/24), elevated for earnings.
Crush estimate: ~5-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~40% range.
Skew: P/C volume ratio 1.15 indicates put buying pressure, but OI ratio 0.88 shows more call OI; mixed sentiment.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: No historical move data provided; EPS surprises consistently positive (+0.10 to +0.20).
Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats suggest upside potential, but no gap data.
Key Levels
1$840.00
2$850.00
3$865.00
4$900.00
5$925.00
6$930.25
Flow Highlights
Heavy $800P 4/10 buying (523 vol vs 320 OI, 1.6x) and $830P 4/10 (383 vol vs 207 OI, 1.9x).
Near-term put flow for downside protection or earnings hedge.
Large net premium negative at $800.00 (-$2.0M) and $970.00 (-$1.9M) from put buying.
Significant bearish flow at strikes below spot, aligning with pinning to max pain.
Strategies
Short strangle (IV crush)
Sell $800P x $950C 4/17
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV >45%.
Elevated IV at 47.3% for 4/17, expected crush back to ~40%. Strikes set outside EM to capture premium decay.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($812.40-$919.70) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >20% or pinning fails.
Bull call spread (directional)
Buy $860C / Sell $900C 4/17
Trigger: Enter if spot shows strength above $865 support.
Historical 100% EPS beat rate suggests upside, but capped at $900 call OI wall to manage pinning risk.
Outperforms: Stock rallies toward $900 resistance post-earnings, leveraging historical EPS beats.
Underperforms: Stock pins near max pain $840-$850 or gaps down.
Long put butterfly (pinning play)
Buy 1x $840P / Sell 2x $850P / Buy 1x $860P 4/17
Trigger: Enter if spot near $866 and pinning forces evident.
Max pain at $840 (4/10) and $850 (4/17) with +GEX pin magnets; targets tight range for pinning post-earnings.
Outperforms: Stock pins between $845-$855, maximizing near max pain clusters.
Underperforms: Stock moves outside $840-$860 range.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: EM ±6.2% ($53.65) but historical beats could drive larger upside move; pinning may suppress volatility.
!IV crush: Estimated 5-10 vol pts drop post-earnings; short premium strategies benefit, long vol suffers.
!Liquidity: Sufficient with 317,602 total OI and 38,708 volume, but watch wide spreads on OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Moderate due to pinning regime; avoid oversized directional bets given dealer hedging forces.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into 4/13 earnings
?Spot action relative to $840-$850 max pain levels
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $290, $370 puts) for tail risk signals