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GS

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)Close $982.12EOD only
Max Pain
$930.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$21.40
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-52.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
GS Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/13 (implied by IV kink). IV is elevated for the 4/17 expiration (44% vs 39% front week), setting up a classic IV crush play. The stock is in a strong pinning regime above max pain, favoring a range-bound outcome. Best strategy is a short premium play targeting the expected move boundaries.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 strong pinning regime; +0.5 elevated IV for earnings expiration; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: Strong pinning regime (GEX +$6.1M) and spot 3.8% above max pain suggest gravity toward $815-$835, supporting a short premium strategy.
🎯Earnings date not explicit but strongly implied by IV kink at 4/17 expiration (17 days out).
📊Perfect 4/4 EPS beat rate historically, but no price move data provided.
⚖️Strong pinning regime (GEX +$6.1M) is the dominant technical factor favoring range-bound outcomes.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 42%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$6.1M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $42.9M, P/C 1.02)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 3.8% (spot $845.99 vs MP $815)
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Below $800, dealers amplify moves; above, they suppress volatility.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-13 (13 days)implied (IV kink at 4/17, 17d out from 3/31)

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (17d): ±$63.58 (7.5%) [$782.41 - $909.56]

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 4/17 expiration (44.0% ATM) vs 39.3% for 4/10 and 43.5% for 4/24.

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~37-39% range.

Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.93 suggests slightly more put OI, but P/C volume 1.02 is balanced. Unusual put flow at $830 (4/02) and $855 (general) indicates hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price history provided to calculate.

Directional bias: All four recent quarters showed positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1$800 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$815 max pain (3/27)
3$850 max pain (4/17)
4EM bounds: $780 - $910

Flow Highlights

Heavy $830 Put buying for 4/02 (Vol 1,883 vs OI 152, 12.4x).

Likely near-term downside hedge or earnings protection.

Large net premium outflow at $855 Put (-$2.07M).

Significant put selling at a key level just above spot, suggesting a floor or covered write strategy.

Unusual $925 Call buying for 4/17 (Vol 1,331 vs OI 217, 6.1x).

Earnings upside speculation, targeting a ~9.3% move from spot.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell $780/$775 Put x Buy $910/$915 Call 4/17
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: Puts: $777.50, Calls: $912.50
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before suspected earnings date (4/13).
Capitalizes on elevated IV (44%) at the earnings expiration. The pinning regime and spot above max pain support a range-bound outcome. Strikes calibrated to the expected move boundaries using valid strikes.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 7.5% expected move and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds by a wide margin.
Put Credit Spread (Pinning Play)
Sell $800 Put / Buy $795 Put 4/17
Credit: $1.20-$1.80
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $1.20
BE: $798.80
Trigger: Enter at any time, given strong pinning signals.
Leverages the strong pinning regime (GEX +$6.1M) and the concentration of put OI at $800 (2,038 contracts). The spot is well above this level, and max pain trends support a gravitational pull higher.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $800 (gamma flip & major put OI wall).
Underperforms: Stock breaks decisively below $795.
Long Straddle (Directional Breakout)
Buy $845 Straddle 4/17
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $781.42 / $908.58 (assuming ~$63.58 debit)
Trigger: Enter only if IV for 4/17 dips below 42% before earnings.
For traders betting the 100% beat rate leads to a larger-than-expected reaction, especially given the elevated IV provides some cushion against crush. High risk due to pinning regime.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds 7.5% (the EM).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $845 and IV crushes significantly.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 7.5% expected move is significant. A guidance miss or macro shock could cause a break of key support at $800.
!IV Crush: Estimated 5-7 vol point drop post-earnings will severely impact long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent (319k+ OI, 236 active strikes). Execution should be fine.
!Sizing: Size short premium strategies conservatively (1-2% risk capital) due to gap risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for the 4/17 expiration into the suspected earnings week.
?Spot price action relative to the $815-$850 max pain zone.
?Any unusual flow in OTM calls above $925 or puts below $785.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.