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GS

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)Close $982.12EOD only
Max Pain
$930.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$21.40
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-52.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
GS Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/13. IV is sharply elevated for the 4/17 expiration (46.5% vs 36.9% front week), creating a clear IV crush setup. The stock remains in a strong pinning regime above max pain, favoring a range-bound outcome. Best strategy is a short premium play targeting the expected move boundaries.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong pinning regime; +1 elevated IV for earnings expiration; -0.5 limited price move history
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at 4/17 (46.5% ATM), confirming earnings pricing. Strong pinning (GEX +$4M) and spot 5.9% above max pain suggest gravity toward $815-$850, supporting short premium.
📅Earnings date not explicit but strongly implied by IV kink at 4/17 expiration (15 days out).
📈Spot has moved up ~$17 (2.0%) since prior report, widening the gap above max pain to 5.9%.
⚖️Pinning regime remains strong but GEX decreased from +$6.1M to +$4.0M.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 42%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$4.0M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $43.6M, P/C 0.82)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 5.9% (spot $863.04 vs MP $815)
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Below $800, dealers amplify moves; above, they suppress volatility.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-13 (11 days)implied (IV kink at 4/17, 15d out from 4/02)

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (15d): ±$59.55 (6.9%) [$803.49 - $922.59]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 expiration (46.5% ATM) vs 36.9% for 4/10 and 44.3% for 4/24.

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~36-38% range.

Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.90 suggests slightly more put OI, but P/C volume 0.82 shows more call volume. Unusual put flow at $830 (4/10) and $750 (4/10) indicates near-term hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price history provided to calculate.

Directional bias: All four recent quarters showed positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1$800 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$815 max pain (3/27)
3$850 max pain (4/17)
4EM bounds: $805 - $920

Flow Highlights

Heavy $830 Put buying for 4/10 (Vol 306 vs OI 120, 2.5x).

Near-term downside hedge targeting a 3.8% drop, just below current spot.

Large net premium outflow at $850 Put (-$3.67M).

Significant put selling at a key max pain level, suggesting a strong perceived floor.

Unusual long-dated put buying: $290 Put 1/27 (Vol 709 vs OI 130, 5.5x) and $370 Put 9/18 (Vol 576 vs OI 107, 5.4x).

Extreme tail-risk hedging or structured product flow, not directly related to earnings.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell $805/$800 Put x Buy $920/$925 Call 4/17
Credit: $2.80-$3.50
Max loss: $1.50
Max gain: $3.00
BE: Puts: $802.50, Calls: $922.50
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before suspected earnings date (4/13).
Capitalizes on sharply elevated IV (46.5%) at the earnings expiration. The pinning regime and spot well above max pain support a range-bound outcome. Strikes calibrated to the expected move boundaries using valid strikes, with puts placed at the $800 OI wall and calls just below the EM upper bound.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 6.9% expected move and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds by a wide margin.
Put Credit Spread (Pinning Play)
Sell $800 Put / Buy $795 Put 4/17
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $1.50
BE: $798.50
Trigger: Enter at any time, given strong pinning signals.
Leverages the strong pinning regime (GEX +$4M) and the concentration of put OI at $800 (2,035 contracts). The spot is 7.9% above this level, and max pain trends support a gravitational pull higher. This is a high-probability, defined-risk play on the pin.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $800 (gamma flip & major put OI wall).
Underperforms: Stock breaks decisively below $795.
Long Straddle (Directional Breakout)
Buy $860 Straddle 4/17
Max loss: Debit paid (~$59.55 estimated)
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $800.45 / $919.55 (assuming ~$59.55 debit)
Trigger: Enter only if IV for 4/17 dips below 44% before earnings.
For traders betting the 100% EPS beat rate leads to a larger-than-expected reaction, especially given the elevated IV provides some cushion against crush. High risk due to the strong pinning regime and estimated IV crush of 8-10 vol points.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds 6.9% (the EM).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $860 and IV crushes significantly.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 6.9% expected move is significant. A guidance miss or macro shock could cause a break of key support at $800.
!IV Crush: Estimated 8-10 vol point drop post-earnings will severely impact long premium strategies. This is a larger crush than last week's estimate due to higher peak IV.
!Liquidity: Excellent (306k+ OI, 219 active strikes). Execution should be fine.
!Sizing: Size short premium strategies conservatively (1-2% risk capital) due to gap risk, especially with spot further above max pain.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for the 4/17 expiration into the suspected earnings week.
?Spot price action relative to the $815-$850 max pain zone. A move back toward $850 would strengthen the pinning thesis.
?Any unusual flow in OTM calls above $925 or puts below $805 as earnings approach.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.