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CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc.Close $111.03EOD only

Max Pain

$113.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.30

7.5% from close

Price Gap

+1.97

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.81

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

CRCL Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 strong pinning regime; +1 spot below max pain; -2 extreme volatility and low liquidity

IV Environment

IV Regime

Extremely High

IV vs VIX

IV 97% — Extremely elevated, typical of biotech/speculative stocks

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 31 DTE (82%), elevated across all expirations (>74%)

💰IV >90% provides massive theta harvest opportunity

⚠️Extreme IV implies binary event risk — size small

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 11.7% ($95.41 vs $108)

GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$14.4M — mean-reverting)

Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Major put wall at $55 with 7,897 OI creates strong support; below $55, negative gamma could accelerate selling

OI concentrations: Put walls: $55 (7,897 OI), $57 (7,372), $70 (5,862). Call walls: $120 (7,722), $150 (7,373), $100 (6,344)

Verdict: Highly favorable for credit sellers — strong pinning forces mean reversion toward max pain

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $70/$65 put spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)

High IV (83%) + strong pinning. Strike sits at major OI support ($70 put wall: 5,862 OI). Well below spot ($95) for 26% buffer. 45 DTE optimal for theta decay.

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $68.50

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll if $70 tested (defend). Exit all if price closes below $55 gamma flip.

iron condor

Sell $80/$75P x $115/$120C 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)

Captures wide expected move (±$21.80). Puts below major OI support ($80), calls below major call wall ($120). Positive GEX supports range-bound price action.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $2.50

BE: 77.00/118.00

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently — roll tested side. Exit if price breaches either short strike.

cash-secured put

Sell $75 put 2026-06-18 (79 DTE)

For capital-secure sellers willing to own stock. $75 is 21% below spot, near $70 OI support. Collects massive premium (IV 81%). High probability of keeping premium.

Credit: $8.50-$10.50

Max loss: $66.50

BE: $66.50

Mgmt: Roll down/out if tested. Close at 80% profit. Be prepared to take assignment below $75.

call credit spread

Sell $105/$110 call spread 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)

Spot below max pain suggests resistance toward $108. $100 call wall (6,344 OI) provides overhead resistance. Shorter DTE capitalizes on faster theta decay in high IV.

Credit: $1.00-$1.30

Max loss: $4.00

BE: $106.00

Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit if price closes above $105. Do not hold through earnings (5/12).

Risk Alerts

!Earnings estimated 2026-05-12 — close all short premium positions before announcement. Never sell naked through earnings with IV this high.

!Extreme IV (97%) implies binary event risk — position sizing must be small (1-2% max).

!Gamma flip at ~$55 — breach could trigger accelerated selling. Exit all credit positions on close below $55.

!Low liquidity relative to mega-caps — use limit orders, avoid market orders for entry/exit.

!Net premium flow negative (-$13.8M) suggests institutional put buying — monitor for increased downside pressure.

!Massive OI at $55/$57 puts indicates strong support but also potential panic level if broken.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.