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CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc.Close $111.03EOD only

Max Pain

$113.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.30

7.5% from close

Price Gap

+1.97

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.81

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

CRCL Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 large bearish premium skew; +1 GEX/flow divergence; -1 P/C volume ratio call-dominant

Watch next session: $92 Put (4/2) OI buildup; Spot reaction near $95/$96 call strikes; Net premium direction for near-term expiries

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$13.8M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.59 — call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.84 — moderate put lean in positioning

A clear divergence exists: high call volume (P/C 0.59) is overwhelmed by massive bearish premium flow (-$13.8M), driven by large, far OTM put purchases. Positioning (P/C OI 0.84) and falling max pain support a structurally bearish bias beneath key resistance.

Notable Prints

CRCL 4/2 $92 Put

Vol: 1,893

OI: 329

Vol/OI: 5.8x

IV: 56.2%

Notional: ~$174,000

Intent: Fresh directional put buying / protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish)

Read-through: High-volume, near-dated put at a key technical level ($92 is below spot and near expected move low). The 5.8x OI build and low IV suggest this is likely a bought put for immediate downside protection or speculation, aligning with the bearish net premium flow.

CRCL 4/10 $95 Call

Vol: 1,708

OI: 503

Vol/OI: 3.4x

IV: 85.4%

Notional: ~$163,000

Intent: Directional call buying or covered call writing

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (neutral/income)

Read-through: High volume at the near-the-money strike for the 10-day expiry. Given the spot is $95.41, this could be bullish breakout bets or, more likely given the overall flow context, sellers (covered calls) generating premium against long stock. The high IV supports a premium-selling thesis.

CRCL 5/15 $165 Call

Vol: 672

OI: 152

Vol/OI: 4.4x

IV: 90.3%

Notional: ~$6,700

Intent: Low-cost, long-dated OTM lottery ticket

Dual read: Bought (high-conviction long-term bullish) or sold (premium collection)

Read-through: Small notional value suggests this is noise or a retail-sized lottery ticket. Given the high IV and extreme OTM strike, the low dollar amount points to speculative long calls rather than meaningful institutional positioning.

CRCL 4/2 $98 Call

Vol: 990

OI: 616

Vol/OI: 1.6x

IV: 87.5%

Notional: ~$97,000

Intent: Short-dated directional bet or spread leg

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (resistance bet)

Read-through: Volume exceeds OI, building new positions just above spot. This could be part of a bullish call spread (buying $98, selling higher) or outright bets for a move above $98 by Friday. It's a counter-flow signal to the dominant bearish premium.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Volume in $95-$98 calls (4/2, 4/10), but premium flow is negative, suggesting these may be sold/written.

Put additions: Large premium spent on far OTM puts ($145-$400 strikes), indicating tail-risk hedging or structural bearish bets.

GEX/DEX consistency: No — divergence. Positive GEX (+$14.4M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting forces, but massive negative DEX and bearish premium flow point to underlying bearish positioning.

OI clusters: Major OI clusters: $55/$57 Puts (support ~15K OI), $100/$120/$150 Calls (resistance ~20K OI). Creates a wide range but with heavy call walls above.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of tail-risk hedging via massive premium spent on OTM puts ($148, $200, $250, etc.). This is the primary driver of the net negative premium.

Max pain context: Spot ($95.41) is significantly below near-term max pain ($108 for 3/27, $97 for 4/2). The descending MP trend ($108 → $85) aligns with a bearish drift in expected pin points.

Signal vs Noise

~Far OTM Put Premium Flow: The massive net negative premium from $145-$400 puts is likely institutional tail-risk hedging or structured product flows, not a direct near-term directional signal for the stock.

~$165 Call (5/15): Low notional value (~$6.7K) is noise/retail speculation, not meaningful smart money flow.

~High Call Volume vs. Negative Premium: The high call volume (P/C 0.59) is likely being sold (covered calls, call overwriting) given the net premium is deeply negative. This is income generation, not bullish conviction.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Critical Flow Divergence: High call volume is overwhelmed by massive bearish premium flow (-$13.8M), indicating call selling/hedging dominates.

🛡️Institutional Tail-Risk Hedging is pronounced, with huge premium spent on OTM puts ($148-$400). This provides downside protection but caps bullish enthusiasm.

📌Spot trades below max pain with positive GEX, suggesting pinning/mean-reverting pressure near current levels ($95-$97), but within a bearish structural context.

🎯Key near-term level is the $92 Put (4/2). A break below confirms the bearish flow thesis; holding above suggests the GEX pinning force is winning.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.