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CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc.Close $111.03EOD only

Max Pain

$113.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.30

7.5% from close

Price Gap

+1.97

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.81

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

CRCL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward lower max pain levels ($97-$96) over the next two weeks. Confidence: 4/10. The market is pinned by positive GEX but pulled down by heavy institutional put flow and a spot price far below near-term max pain. Expect a choppy grind lower within the expected move range.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base 4; +1 for strong GEX pinning; -1 for contradictory bearish net premium flow; -1 for spot 11.7% below near-term max pain ($108). No overriding catalysts identified.

Supports: GEX +$14.4M (strong pinning), DEX +20M shares (dealer long), P/C vol 0.59 (call volume dominance).
Conflicts: Net premium -$13.8M (bearish), spot far below near-term MP, falling MP trend across expirations.

📌Extreme GEX pinning at $55, but spot is $40 above it.

📉Max pain ladder declines from $108 to $85, signaling structural bearish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 96.9% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers but with elevated tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$14.4M concentrated far below spot at ~$55 — creates a distant but powerful magnet; near-spot gamma is minimal, allowing for drift.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: P/C volume is bullish (0.59), but net premium is bearish (-$13.8M), indicating large, paid put hedging or speculation.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $95.41 is 11.7% below the 3/27 MP of $108 — a large gap that creates upward pinning pressure for that expiry, but the MP trend is decisively lower thereafter.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a consistent downward trend from $108 to $85 over 14 expirations, and the high-IV, pinning regime is not expiry-specific. This suggests a bearish drift thesis over several weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$90.45$100.37

Driven by pinning toward 4/2 MP of $97; break below $90.45 EM support invalidates.

Next 1 week

$85.44$105.39

MP drops to $96 (4/10), flow and MP trend support lower grind; resistance at $105.39 EM.

Next 2 weeks

$82.26$108.56

Structural MP trend and heavy put OI at $55-$70 act as a distant anchor; rally capped by $108.56 EM.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $108 (2026-03-27); $97 (2026-04-02); $96 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $90.45/$100.37; 1w $85.44/$105.39

Support: $55.00 · $57.00 · $55.00

Resistance: $120.00 · $150.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 7,897

Structural: **Call OI walls at $100, $120, $150** cap rallies. **Massive Put OI floor at $55-$70** (7k+ OI each) is a major structural support zone but $25 below spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+14.4M

DEX: +20.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$55 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 7,897)

NTM gamma: Near-the-money gamma is minimal; the dominant gamma flip is ~$55, far below. Dealers are long gamma (GEX+) and long shares (DEX+), but hedging pressure is distant. A move ±2% from spot has little immediate gamma impact; the real pin is at $55.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 96.9% is extreme — stock-specific vol is massively elevated vs. any broad index VIX, indicating high uncertainty or event risk. Selling premium has high nominal edge but carries crash risk.

Term structure: **Inverted near-term**: 2d IV 60.9% < 10d IV 76.3%. Steep rise into April, then flat around 80-83% out to 2027. The inversion suggests imminent event resolution (3/27 expiry pin release) followed by sustained high vol.

Skew: Extreme skew toward OTM puts (massive OI at $55). The vol term inversion (60.9% vs 76.3%) supports a **reverse calendar**: sell the higher-IV 4/10 expiry, buy the lower-IV 4/2 expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$13.8M bearish; P/C vol 0.59 (bullish) vs P/C OI 0.84 (bearish) — conflict.

Directional prints: $100C 4/10 vol 3,468 vs OI 6,344 — could be closing or opening; $92P 4/2 vol 1,893 vs OI 329 (5.8x) — likely bought puts for near-term hedge. The $100C and $95C saw large net positive premium, suggesting some call buying.

Unusual: $165C 5/15 vol 672 vs OI 152 (4.4x) at IV 90.3% — lottery ticket call buying far OTM.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin at $55 is a massive, distant risk** — a break below $70 could trigger accelerated selling due to dealer hedging.

!**Extreme IV (97%)** can lead to violent vol crush on any stability, punishing long premium positions.

!**Earnings estimated 5/12** — vol will remain elevated into the event, term structure reflects this.

!**Net premium flow is bearish** contradicting GEX pinning — indicates institutional hedging that may precede a move.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Weak	N/A	Bearish MP trend, high IV, negative net premium flow.
Short Stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Strong positive GEX pinning provides near-term support; defined-risk puts better.
Covered Call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $100C 4/17 or 5/1	Capped upside at resistance; stock may drift lower.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $90/$85 put spread 4/17 (within 1w EM support)	Break below $85.44 EM support.
Long Calls	Weak	N/A	Extremely high IV, bearish drift thesis.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $90/$85 bear put spread 4/17	GEX pinning and high IV decay (theta).
Iron Condor	Moderate	$85/$80P x $105/$110C 4/17 (within 1w EM bounds)	High IV > 28 and GEX positive per threshold; moderate edge.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $95C 4/10 (IV 76.3%), Buy $95C 4/2 (IV 60.9%)	Pin doesn't hold at $95; directional move.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy $70C 2027-01-15, sell $100C 4/17 or 5/1 against it	Long-dated IV also high (83.5%); capital intensive.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (4/17)

Buy $90 Put / Sell $85 Put, exp 4/17

Defined-risk expression of the multi-week bearish drift thesis toward lower max pain. Positions within the 1-week expected move support zone ($85.44). Benefits from high IV if spot moves down quickly.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: $88.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($1.60-$2.24 credit). Exit if spot closes above $97 (4/2 MP).

Traders with a bearish bias seeking defined risk, avoiding the high theta decay of long puts alone.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $95 Call 4/10 / Buy $95 Call 4/2

Capitalizes on the inverted term structure (~15 vol point differential). Best if spot pins near $95 through 4/2 expiry. The short leg in the higher-IV expiry decays faster, profiting from vol convergence and theta.

Credit: $0.40-$0.70

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush.

Mgmt: Close for a profit if IV differential narrows or after 4/2 expiry. Exit if spot moves >$2 away from $95.

Neutral/range traders comfortable with pinning dynamics. Requires active management.

Defined-Risk Put Sale (4/17)

Sell $90/$85 Bull Put Spread 4/17

A higher-probability, premium-collection play that bets spot stays above the 1-week EM support ($85.44). Aligns with the positive GEX pinning (though distant) and collects rich premium from high IV. The 30+ DTE provides a buffer for the multi-week drift thesis.

Credit: $1.00-$1.30

Max loss: $4.00

BE: $89.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-80% of max credit. Roll down/out if spot breaches $87. Close for a loss on break below $85.

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish lean who believe the put floor will hold. Better than a naked put due to defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $100 (call OI wall) and stalls for 1 hour → Enter bear put spread: Buy $95P / Sell $90P 4/17.

IFSpot declines to $90 (2-day EM support) and bounces → Sell $90/$85 bull put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $85.44 (1-week EM support) → Exit all short put positions and reconsider bearish thesis.

EXITSpot closes above $105.39 (1-week EM resistance) → Exit all bearish positions (puts, bear spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Multi-week bearish drift toward lower max pain levels ($96 → $85), contained within high-IV chop. Invalidation above $105.39. The regime favors defined-risk directional spreads (bear put spreads) and vol-term arbitrage (reverse calendars) over naked premium selling due to extreme IV and structural put floors. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for bearish bias, 2) Reverse calendar for neutral/pinning, 3) Bull put spread for premium collectors betting on support.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.