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CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc.Close $111.03EOD only
Max Pain
$113.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.30
7.5% from close
Price Gap
+1.97
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
CRCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in ~42 days (est. 5/12). IV extremely elevated (97%), presenting a classic IV crush setup. Stock has a strong history of positive EPS surprises but wild moves. Best strategy is selling premium via an iron condor, with a directional call spread as a higher-risk alternative.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 elevated IV and clear term structure kink; +1 strong historical beat rate; -0.5 low liquidity vs mega-caps
Most important: IV term structure shows a massive kink at the 5/15 expiration (83% vs 60% for 4/02), strongly implying earnings week of 5/12.
⚠️Earnings date inferred (5/12). Confirm as date approaches.
💰IV in 97th percentile. Historically excellent environment for premium sellers.
📊Historical EPS surprises are massive but inconsistent. Trade is a volatility bet, not a fundamental one.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Extreme (IV 97%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$14.4M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$13.8M, P/C 0.59)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 11.7% (spot $95.41 vs MP $108)
Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Gamma flip ~$55, far below spot. Dealers are long gamma near spot, providing stability.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-12 (42 days)inferred (term structure kink at 5/15 expiration, explicit EPS est for 5/12)

Expected moves:

  • 5/15 (45d): ±$21.80 (22.9%)
  • Implied EM for earnings week: ~±15-18%

IV Setup

Term structure: Massive kink at 5/15 expiration (83.1% IV) vs 4/02 (60.9%). IV rises steadily into May, confirming earnings pricing.

Crush estimate: ~20-25 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~60-65% range.

Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.84 suggests balanced positioning. Unusual flow shows large OTM put sales (bearish bets?) and call buying at $95-$100.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 66% (2/3 quarters, but one massive miss)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot calculate precise EM history, but moves are extreme: +168% EPS beat, +256% beat, then -453% miss.

Directional bias: 2/3 positive reactions post-earnings, but the miss was severe.

Key Levels

1$95-$100 (call OI wall, spot)
2$55 (major put OI support)
3Gamma flip ~$55
4EM bounds: $74 - $117 (5/15)

Flow Highlights

Massive net premium outflow at OTM puts ($148, $400, $340) — sellers collecting huge credit.

Institutional or large traders selling disaster puts, betting against a crash.

Heavy call buying at $100 ($1.44M net prem) and $95 ($1.21M net prem).

Bullish bets targeting a move above key strike levels.

Unusual volume in 4/02 $92P (1,893 vol vs 329 OI) and 4/10 $95C (1,708 vol vs 503 OI).

Near-term positioning for a bounce (selling puts, buying calls).

Strategies

Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $75/$70P x $115/$120C 5/15
Credit: $4.50-$6.00
Max loss: $20.00
Max gain: $5.25
BE: P: $69.75, C: $120.25
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings (mid-April).
Capitalizes on extreme IV (97%) and expected crush. Wings set outside 5/15 expected move ($74-$117) for buffer. High credit provides >20% ROI on risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $75-$115 (wide 42% range). IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside condor wings (>20% move).
Bull Call Spread (Directional Upside)
Buy $95C / Sell $105C 5/15
Max loss: Debit paid (~$4.00 est)
Max gain: $6.00
BE: $99.00
Trigger: On any dip toward $90-92 support.
Aligns with historical beat bias and heavy call flow at $95/$100. Defined risk. Targets move to the upper EM bound.
Outperforms: Stock rallies past $100 into earnings, fueled by positive surprise.
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or falls; IV crush hurts long calls.
Short Strangle (Aggressive Premium Sale)
Sell $70P / Sell $115C 5/15
Credit: $8.00-$10.00
Max loss: Unlimited (naked)
Max gain: $9.00
BE: P: $62.00, C: $123.00
Trigger: Only for experienced, margin-approved traders. Enter 30 days out.
Maximum premium capture from sky-high IV. Wider breakevens than condor (31% buffer down, 29% up). Requires careful risk management.
Outperforms: Stock pins between $80-$110. Major IV crush.
Underperforms: Sharp directional move beyond breakevens.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Extreme. Historical moves are volatile. 22.9% EM is huge; stock could gap 30%+ on guidance.
!IV crush: Major. IV ~97% will collapse 20+ points. Long premium strategies need a massive move to win.
!Liquidity: Moderate. OI 658K is sufficient but not mega-cap level. Wider spreads possible.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<2% account). Wildcard earnings.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May — if it pushes above 100%, selling premium more attractive.
?Spot vs $100 level — break above could trigger gamma squeeze toward call OI walls.
?Any news or pre-earnings guidance that could calm or spike volatility.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.