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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $193.56EOD only

Max Pain

$192.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.59

2.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.75

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

COIN is in a high-volatility, negative-gamma regime with spot below max pain ($192), suggesting bearish lean. Dealer net long DEX (+26.2M) but negative GEX (-$13M) implies trend acceleration risk. Mixed flows and resistance at $190-195 cap upside. Bias lower toward support $167.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

GEX/flow alignment (+2), VIX 17 (+1), spot 3.9% from MP (-0.5) giving net confidence 7.5/10.

Supports: Dealer long DEX, VIX elevated, resistance cluster at $190-195 capping upside.
Conflicts: Negative GEX, mixed flows, spot below MP, high IV.

📉Spot below $192 max pain, bears in control for weeklies.

⚡Negative GEX (-$13M) amplifies moves; trend likely continues.

📊DEX +26.2M shares shows structural long, but near-term bearish gamma dominates.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV (above VIX 16.7) due to crypto volatility and event risk; supports directional positions.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX ($-13M) indicates trending conditions; dealer hedging could accelerate moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; no strong put/call bias evident from available data.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below current expiry max pain ($192), leaning bearish for near term.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and negative gamma favor trend continuation over days to weeks; structural DEX long counters but short-term bias bearish.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$173.19$196.79

Resistance at $190-196, support $173; breakdown below $173 opens $167.

Next 2 weeks

$167.04$202.94

Key support $167; if broken, further downside. Resistance $203.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $192 (2026-05-22); $192 (2026-05-29); $185 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 1w $173.19/$196.79

Support: $167.04

Resistance: $190.00 · $192.50 · $195.00

Structural: Support $167 (2w low). Resistance $190/$192.5/$195. EM guardrails 1w $173-$197. Max pain $192 (weekly).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-13.0M

DEX: +26.2M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$13M (negative), DEX +26.2M shares. Negative gamma amplifies moves; DEX shows structural long.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: COIN IV elevated vs VIX 16.7, reflecting high expected crypto volatility; rich for options sellers.

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated due to event risk; longer-term decay suggests contango.

Skew: Skew puts over calls; consider put spreads or bearish vol strategies given negative gamma.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium ~$79M dominates; put/call vol ratio 0.5 indicates more call volume but premiums skewed bearish.

Directional prints: 92.6 put 135 OTM 2026-05-29 — 26.2x vol/OI; likely bought puts for downside protection, bearish bet; preferred bought. 55.9 call 190 OTM 2026-05-29 — 9.1x vol/OI; likely bought calls for upside speculation; preferred bought. 55.8 call 195 OTM 2026-05-29 — 5.4x vol/OI; likely bought calls for upside; preferred bought.

Unusual: 92.6 put 135 OTM 2026-05-29 — 26.2x vol/OI, low premium $0.08; extremely unusual. 55.9 call 190 OTM 2026-05-29 — 9.1x vol/OI, $3.94 premium; unusual call activity. 12.9 call 187.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — 6.9x vol/OI, near-expiry $0.02; likely closing, unusual.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot below max pain may pin near $192.

!Negative GEX could cause sharp reversals.

!Mixed flows offer no clear conviction.

!Market-wide VIX drop could reduce IV.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-26 $175.00/$160.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk bearish structure to profit from expected decline; negative gamma accelerates moves.	If price rallies above short strike, max loss is limited; but gamma squeeze could exceed spread width.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $170.00 put Why now: Negative GEX and dealer put demand; long put hedges tail risk and profits from trend acceleration.	Time decay if move delayed; IV contraction after earnings could hurt even if direction correct.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $175.00/$160.00 put spread

Profits from decline with limited loss.

Why this play: Defined-risk, aligns with negative gamma and bearish bias.

Debit: $4.14-$5.06

Max loss: $5.06

BE: $169.94

Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or if COIN > $190.

Risk-aware bearish traders.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $170.00 put

Unlimited profit potential from steep drop.

Why this play: Higher upside if trend accelerates; hedges tail risk.

Debit: $10.06-$12.29

Max loss: $12.29

BE: $157.71

Mgmt: Monitor IV; close on volatility contraction.

Aggressive traders seeking max leverage.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFCOIN breaks below $167 support → Buy 2026-06-26 $175/$160 put spread for $4.14-$5.06

IFCOIN breaks below $167 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $170 put for $10.06-$12.29

Exit Triggers

EXITCOIN rallies above $190 → Close all bearish positions (bear put spread and long put)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias; sell rallies to $190 resistance. Key support $167. Enter bear spreads on breakdown; long puts for tail risk. Invalidation above $190.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.