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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $193.56EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.59
2.9% from close
Price Gap
-1.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
COIN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

COIN is pinned near $192 with strong dealer long gamma ($+31.9M GEX) and a bullish DEX of +26.8M shares, supporting a drift toward resistance at $195-$200. High vol and mixed flow create a neutral-to-bullish bias with event-specific pinning through the weekly expiry.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5 + gamma pinning (+1) + spot near MP (+1) + low VIX environment (+1) = 7. Mixed flow subtracts 1 but GEX positivity offsets.
Supports: Positive dealer gamma, spot at MP, high vol for premium collection
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance at $195/$200, elevated IV vs VIX
⚖️Price pinned near $192 with gamma support
📈Positive DEX and GEX favor bullish drift
⚠️Resistance at $195 may cap near-term move

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol due to implied vol elevated vs VIX, providing premium and potential for large moves.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime with $+31.9M GEX, dealers long gamma, stabilizing price near $192.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow with bullish and bearish premiums, reducing directional conviction.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot near max pain $192 (0.6% away), implying pinning into expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiry pinning on 5/22 with subsequent pins on 5/29 and 6/5 create event-driven opportunities.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$187.97$199.15
Pin at $192 with mixed flow; range-bound between $187.97-$199.15.
Next 1 week
$179.58$207.53
Gamma support and positive DEX; target $195-$200 resistance.
Next 2 weeks
$173.41$213.71
Structural bullish bias with high vol and dealer long gamma; upside to $210.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $192 (2026-05-22); $195 (2026-05-29); $185 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $187.97/$199.15; 1w $179.58/$207.53
Support: $192.50 · $173.41
Resistance: $195.00 · $200.00 · $210.00
Structural: Structural support $173.41, resistance $210. Max pain pins: $192 (5/22), $195 (5/29), $185 (6/5). EM guardrails: 2d $187.97-$199.15, 1w $179.58-$207.53.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+31.9M

DEX: +26.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealer NTM gamma positive $+31.9M, DEX +26.8M shares. No gamma flip risk within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is high relative to VIX (16.76), implying rich vol; premium selling attractive.

Term structure: Steep curve with event kinks near weekly expirations (5/22, 5/29, 6/5).

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling out-of-the-money upside calls in elevated IV.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $52.9M net premium (net selling bias) despite call volume dominance (P/C vol ratio 0.46, OI ratio 0.75), indicating premium flow from high-priced put sales.

Directional prints: 58.2 call 197.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 6607 vs OI 1911 (3.5x), IV 58%; likely aggressive call buying (bullish), though sold calls would be bearish. 59.4 call 207.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 4891 vs OI 947 (5.2x), IV 59%; strong call volume suggests bullish sentiment; sold scenario less typical.

Unusual: 140.2 put 340 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1480 vs OI 288 (5.1x), IV 140%; high vol/oi ratio on OTM put, unusual bearish bet or hedging. 127.1 put 230 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol 1623 vs OI 345 (4.7x), IV 127%; put buying elevated, possibly hedging spot exposure or bearish view. 82.8 put 80 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol 2379 vs OI 1197 (2.0x), IV 83%; large put volume far OTM, likely protective puts or speculative downside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Vol collapse if IV reverts to VIX
!Spot breakdown below $173.41 support
!Gamma flip if put OI builds near spot

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $195.00/$200.00 call spread
Why now: Call volume dominance and positive DEX support upside.
Spot fails to hold 190, max loss debit.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $180.00/$175.00 put spread
Why now: Net put selling flow and low put OI near spot imply low downside risk.
Break below 175 during crash.
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $180.00/$170.00 put wing and $200.00/$210.00 call wing
Why now: High IV supports premium sale; spot pinned near 192 with mixed flow.
Volatile breakout past wings.

Top Plays

#1
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $195.00/$200.00 call spread
Captures bullish move with defined risk.
Why this play: Call volume dominance and positive DEX support upside drift to $195-$200.
Debit: $2.05-$2.50
Max loss: $2.50
BE: $197.50
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $192.5; take profit near $200.
Traders expecting upside within 2 weeks.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $180.00/$175.00 put spread
Collects premium from bullish/neutral stance.
Why this play: Net put selling and low put OI limit downside risk.
Credit: $1.35-$1.65
Max loss: $3.35
BE: $178.35
Mgmt: Monitor invalidation level at $192.5; roll if breached.
Traders seeking income with downside protection.
#3
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $180.00/$170.00 put wing and $200.00/$210.00 call wing
Profits from range-bound price action.
Why this play: High IV supports premium sale; spot pinned near $192 with mixed flow.
Credit: $5.69-$6.96
Max loss: $3.04
BE: 173.04 / 206.96
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $180 or $200; adjust wings.
Traders expecting low volatility and sideways movement.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot breaks above $195.0 → Buy 2026-06-12 $195/$200 call spread
IFSpot holds above $192.5 → Sell 2026-06-12 $180/$175 put spread
IFSpot stays between $180.0 and $200.0 → Sell 2026-06-12 180/170 put wing & 200/210 call wing
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot falls below $192.5 → Close 2026-06-12 $195/$200 call spread
EXITSpot breaks below $180.0 → Close 2026-06-12 $180/$175 put spread
EXITSpot breaches $170.0 or $210.0 → Close 2026-06-12 iron condor

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bullish bias with pinning near $192. Favor bull call spread on break above $195; put credit spread for income above $192.5; iron condor if range-bound. Manage exits at invalidation levels.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.