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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $191.29EOD only

Max Pain

$192.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.47

4.4% from close

Price Gap

+1.21

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 14, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a strong gravitational pull to the $170 pin. Confidence: 4/10. Spot is just above the key gamma flip and max pain level, held in place by positive GEX. However, massive net bearish premium flow and extreme IV create a contradictory, high-stress environment.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base 4; +1 for strong GEX pinning at $170; -1 for contradictory bearish flow; -1 for spot being 7.3% from nearest MP ($185).

Supports: GEX +$5.0M (pinning), Gamma flip at ~$170, MP cluster at $170 for near-term expiries.
Conflicts: Net premium -$143.1M (bearish), IV 82.3% (extreme), spot far from nearest max pain ($185).

📌Spot $171.46 is dancing on the $170 gamma flip knife-edge.

⚠️-$143M net premium flow suggests institutional hedging or bearish bets.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 82.3% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if direction is contained, but mark-to-market risk is severe.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$5.0M concentrated near $170 — creates a strong pinning magnet and mean-reverting force.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$143.1M with P/C vol 0.58 — massive bearish flow (likely large put buys or call sells) conflicts with pinning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $171.46 is 7.3% below the nearest max pain ($185) and just above the $170 MP cluster — immediate gravity is to $170.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $170-$180 pinning zone through May (4/10 $170, 4/17 $180, 4/24 $175). GEX sign remains positive, and the regime is not resolved at a single expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$157.86$185.06

Gamma and max pain dominate; break below $157.86 (1w EM low) invalidates.

Next 2 weeks

$152.49$190.44

MP ladder rises to $180; flow remains a headwind.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-03-27); $170 (2026-04-02); $170 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $157.86/$185.06

Support: $170.00

Resistance: $480.00 · $190.00 · $370.00

Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,916

Structural: Distant call OI walls at $190, $370, $480 cap explosive rallies. The $170 put OI (6,916) is the near-term floor.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.0M

DEX: +26.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$170 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,916)

NTM gamma: Positive gamma near $170 provides a cushion. A close below $170 flips gamma negative, accelerating dealer selling. A move above $180 reduces pinning force.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 82.3% — extremely elevated, reflecting crypto volatility. Selling premium has high nominal edge if direction is wrong.

Term structure: Humped: 4/10 66.8% < 5/08 79.1% > 6/18 73.4%. Kink at 5/08 (earnings week) priced for event vol.

Skew: ~12 vol-point differential between 4/10 (66.8%) and 5/08 (79.1%) — supports calendar spreads selling the higher-IV May expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$143.1M strongly bearish; P/C vol 0.58 shows call volume dominance but net premium is massively negative.

Directional prints: $177.5C 4/10 vol 9,647 vs OI 2,668 (3.6x) — could be bullish call buying or bearish call selling against long stock. $130P 4/10 vol 3,146 vs OI 439 (7.2x) at IV 93.6% — likely bought as a far OTM tail hedge.

Unusual: $250P 4/17 vol 1,255 at IV 144.4% — extreme IV, likely a speculative buy or complex spread leg.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $170 could trigger accelerated dealer selling.

!Extreme IV (82.3%) implies high volatility risk; short premium faces large mark-to-market swings.

!Massive bearish flow (-$143.1M net premium) may foreshadow a breakdown if pin breaks.

!Earnings on 5/7/26 will cause a vol crush event in May-dated options.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell $160/$155P x $185/$190C 4/17 (outside 1w EM bounds).	Extreme IV and bearish flow; wings may be too narrow for stress.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/17.	Pin breaks below $170.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $180C 4/17.	Stock declines below purchase price.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $175P / Sell $170P 4/10 (debit spread).	Pin holds at $170; time decay in high IV.
Long calls	Weak	Not recommended — contradicts flow and pin gravity.	Pin drags spot down; expensive IV.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $170P 5/08 (IV 79.1%) / Buy $170P 4/17 (IV 68.2%) — reverse calendar.	Spot moves sharply away from $170.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $150C Jan 2027, sell $180C monthly against it.	Capital intensive; spot decline hurts long LEAPS.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Short stock with a stop above $185.	Strong pinning and positive GEX cause a squeeze back to $170.
Long stock	Moderate	Buy stock with a stop below $167.5.	Bearish flow and potential breakdown.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Credit)

Sell $170/$165 put spread, exp 4/17.

Capitalizes on the strong pin at $170 (gamma flip, max pain) by selling puts just below it. High IV provides rich premium. Defined risk below the key level.

Credit: $1.15-$1.35

Max loss: $3.85

BE: $168.85

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $169. Roll to a lower strike if pin breaks but thesis remains.

Traders who believe the $170 pin holds and want to collect high premium with defined risk.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $170P 5/08, Buy $170P 4/17.

Exploits the ~12 vol-point differential between expiries by selling the higher-IV, earnings-affected May expiry. Profits if spot stays near $170 through April expiry, benefiting from pinning and faster decay of the short leg.

Credit: $0.50-$0.70

Max loss: Varies (width of strikes if adjusted)

BE: Management-dependent

Mgmt: Close when April leg expires or if short leg's theta decay is captured. Exit if spot moves >$5 from $170.

Volatility traders seeking a theta-positive, vega-neutral play on the pin holding. Better than a weekly put sale due to defined risk and vol differential capture.

Covered Call

Buy stock at ~$172.5, Sell $180C 4/17.

Generates income against a long stock position in a pinning regime. The call strike is above spot and near the 1-week EM high, providing a good premium buffer. Aligns with neutral-to-slightly-bullish drift toward $180 MP.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: Full stock decline from net cost.

BE: $168.00

Mgmt: Consider rolling the call if spot approaches $180. Exit if pin breaks below $167.5.

Existing shareholders or those willing to own COIN at a net cost below $173. Provides downside cushion.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot drops to $170.50 and holds for 1 hour → Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to test $185 (near 1w EM high) → Sell $185/$190 call credit spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $185 (breaks above 1w EM high and key MP) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, condors).

EXITSpot closes below $167.5 (breaks below key support and gamma flip area) → Exit long stock and covered call positions.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis is a multi-week pin between $170-$180, with immediate gravity to $170. The regime favors selling premium at the edges of the range, particularly puts just below $170. Invalidation is a close above $185 or below $167.5. Top plays: 1) $170/$165 put spread for defined-risk pin bet, 2) $170 reverse calendar for vol traders capturing the earnings vol kink, 3) Covered call for stock owners or those seeking a net-long bias with income.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.