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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $191.29EOD only

Max Pain

$192.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.47

4.4% from close

Price Gap

+1.21

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 14, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong pinning force at $170. Confidence: 4/10. Spot is pinned between the gamma flip at $170 and the 2-day expected move high of $180.89, with a gravitational pull toward the $170 max pain cluster for the next two expirations. The regime is contradictory: positive GEX suggests mean reversion, but massive net negative premium flow (-$168.7M) indicates heavy institutional put buying or call selling.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base 4; +1 for strong GEX pinning at $170; -1 for contradictory bearish flow; -1 for spot being 5.6% above nearest MP.

Supports: GEX +$15.8M (pinning), Gamma flip at $170, MP cluster at $170 for April expiries.
Conflicts: Net premium -$168.7M (bearish), P/C vol ratio 1.00 (balanced but with huge negative net premium).

📌Strong pin at $170 from gamma and max pain.

⚠️Massive -$168.7M net premium flow contradicts pinning signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 85.3% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if direction is contained.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$15.8M concentrated near $170 — creates a strong pinning magnet and mean-reverting force.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$168.7M with P/C vol 1.00 — massive bearish flow (likely large put buys or call sells) conflicts with pinning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $174.61 is 2.7% above the $170 MP cluster — pin drift is downward.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $170-$180 pinning zone through May, and GEX sign is stable positive. The regime is not just a one-week expiry event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$168.33$180.89

Gamma pin and MP gravity dominate; a break above $180.89 invalidates the pin.

Next 1 week

$159.34$189.89

Bearish lean within range toward $170 support; lower bound is weak put OI.

Next 2 weeks

$153.99$195.24

Neutral with a slight downward bias toward the $170-$180 pinning zone.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-03-27); $170 (2026-04-02); $170 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $168.33/$180.89; 1w $159.34/$189.89

Support: $170.00

Resistance: $480.00 · $190.00 · $370.00

Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,922

Structural: Call OI walls at $190 and $480 are distant caps. The $170 put OI (6,922) is the near-term floor and gamma flip level.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+15.8M

DEX: +28.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$170 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,922)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated at $170. A move below $170 flips gamma negative, accelerating selling. A move above $180 reduces pinning force.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 85.3% — extremely elevated, reflecting crypto volatility. Selling premium has high nominal edge if direction is wrong.

Term structure: Upward sloping from 60% (2d) to ~74% (45d), then flat. No major kinks except elevated levels across the board.

Skew: Near-dated (2-10 day) IV is 5-15 vol points lower than 30-45 DTE — supports calendar spreads selling the longer-dated higher vol.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$168.7M strongly bearish; P/C vol 1.00 balanced but net prem is massively negative.

Directional prints: $170P 4/02 vol 6,319 vs OI 2,176 (2.9x) — likely bought puts for protection or directional bearish bet. $180C 4/02 vol 4,776 vs OI 7,783 — could be call selling against existing long OI.

Unusual: $95P 4/10 vol 1,676 at IV 129.7% — far OTM put buying, either tail hedge or speculative lottery ticket.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $170 could trigger accelerated dealer selling.

!Extreme IV (85%) implies high volatility risk; short premium faces large mark-to-market swings.

!Massive bearish flow (-$168.7M net premium) may foreshadow a breakdown if pin breaks.

!Earnings on 5/7/26 will cause a vol crush event in May-dated options.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell $165/$160P x $185/$190C 4/17 (outside 1w EM bounds).	GEX negative but VIX proxy is high; rule says Moderate. Edge is weak due to extreme IV and bearish flow.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/10 or 4/17.	Pin breaks below $170.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $180C or $185C 4/17.	Stock declines below purchase price.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $175P / Sell $170P 4/10 (debit spread).	Pin holds at $170; time decay in high IV.
Long calls	Weak	Not recommended — contradicts flow and pin gravity.	Pin drags spot down; expensive IV.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $170P 5/01 (IV 70.9%) / Buy $170P 4/10 (IV 66.2%) — reverse calendar for bullish/neutral pin thesis.	Spot moves sharply away from $170.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $150C Jan 2027, sell $180C monthly against it.	Capital intensive; spot decline hurts long LEAPS.
Short stock	Moderate	Short stock with a stop above $182.5.	Strong pinning and positive GEX cause a squeeze back to $170.
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock with a stop below $167.5.	Bearish flow and downward pin drift.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Credit)

Sell $170/$165 put spread, exp 4/17.

Capitalizes on the strong pin at $170 (gamma flip, max pain) by selling puts just below it. High IV provides rich premium. Defined risk below the key level.

Credit: $1.15-$1.35

Max loss: $3.85

BE: $168.85

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $169. Roll to a lower strike if pin breaks but thesis remains.

Traders who believe the $170 pin holds and want to collect high premium with defined risk.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $170P 5/01, Buy $170P 4/10.

Exploits the ~5 vol-point differential between expiries (70.9% vs 66.2%) by selling the higher-IV longer-dated option. Profits if spot stays near $170 through April expiry, benefiting from pinning and faster decay of the short leg.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: Varies (width of strikes if adjusted)

BE: Management-dependent

Mgmt: Close when April leg expires or if short leg's theta decay is captured. Exit if spot moves >$5 from $170.

Volatility traders seeking a theta-positive, vega-neutral play on the pin holding. Better than a weekly put sale due to defined risk and vol differential capture.

Covered Call

Buy stock at ~$175, Sell $180C 4/17.

Generates income against a long stock position in a pinning regime. The call strike is above spot and near the 1-week EM high, providing a good premium buffer. Aligns with neutral-to-slightly-bearish drift toward $170.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: Full stock decline from net cost.

BE: $171.50

Mgmt: Consider rolling the call if spot approaches $180. Exit if pin breaks below $167.5.

Existing shareholders or those willing to own COIN at a net cost below $175. Provides downside cushion.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to $180 (tests 2d EM high) → Sell $180/$185 call credit spread 4/10.

IFSpot drops to $170.50 and holds for 1 hour → Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $182.5 (breaks above nearest valid strike above 2d EM high) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, condors).

EXITSpot closes below $167.5 (breaks below key support and gamma flip area) → Exit long stock and covered call positions.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis is a multi-week pin between $170-$180, with a downward bias toward the $170 max pain cluster. The regime favors selling premium at the edges of the range, particularly puts just below $170. Invalidation is a close above $182.5 or below $167.5. Top plays: 1) $170/$165 put spread for defined-risk pin bet, 2) $170 reverse calendar for vol traders, 3) Covered call for stock owners.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.