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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1592.00EOD only
Max Pain
$1495.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$34.95
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-97.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
ASML Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Moderate bullish bias. Strong GEX +13.7M, spot above MP $1550. Range-bound EM $1592-$1673. Breakout above $1698 targets $1740. Confidence 8/10. Dealer alignment and pinning support.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base5 +2 GEX/flow +1 GEX pinning -1 spot dist +1 VIX=17.
Supports: Positive GEX, spot above MP, SPY/QQQ up.
Conflicts: High IV, mixed flow, resistance $1698, gamma flip $1400.
🟢GEX +13.7M, pinning near $1550.
⚠️High IV vs VIX, vol risk premium.
📊Spot above MP, resistance $1698.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol due tech uncertainty, IV elevated vs VIX 17.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma pinning, GEX +13.7M, flip at $1400 far below.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow, put OI at $1400 hedging.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above MP $1550 by 2.5%, bullish tilt.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — No event, range-bound with dealer pinning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$1592.35$1673.45
EM $1592-$1673, test upper.
Next 2 weeks
$1568.25$1697.55
Resistance $1698, target $1740.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1550 (2026-05-22); $1470 (2026-05-29); $1460 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 1w $1592.35/$1673.45
Support: $1585.00 · $1568.25 · $1550.00
Resistance: $1697.55
Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,279 (14.3% below spot)
Structural: MP pins $1550/$1470/$1460. EM 1w $1592-$1673. Support $1585/$1568/$1550. Resistance $1698. Flip $1400.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+13.7M

DEX: +5.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$1400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,279 (14.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +13.7M, DEX +5.2M, flip $1400 (put OI 14.3% below).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich vs VIX 17, short vol if range holds.

Term structure: Backwardated near term, flattening further out.

Skew: Put skew high, consider call spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$94.8M, put/call vol ratio 1.29; mixed with bullish call buying and bearish put volume.

Directional prints: 9.4 call 1650 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 4.5, IV 9.4%; heavy call accumulation, likely bought for upside. 16.8 put 1600 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 4.3, IV 16.8%; OTM put activity, bearish positioning.

Unusual: 14 call 1660 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.0, IV 14%; extreme relative volume, speculative OTM calls. 23.9 call 1670 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.5, IV 23.9%; high IV OTM calls, unusual premium. 57.8 call 2020 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 1.7, IV 57.8%; far OTM call with very high IV, long-shot speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $1400.
!IV compression.
!Resistance failure.
!Macro shock.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $1600.00/$1700.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk bullish expression aligned with multi-week thesis. Flow shows call accumulation at 1650.
Breakout fails; resistance holds below $1698. Loss of premium if spot declines.
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $1640.00 call
Why now: High confidence in bullish move; limited downside via premium outlay.
Theta decay if move delayed; IV crush after earnings. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $1650.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $1640.00.
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-18 $1510.00/$1440.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk credit strategy to profit from bullish drift or pinning.
Sharp drop below short strike; gamma risk near expiration. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $1600.00/$1700.00 call spread
Buy 1600/1700 call spread.
Why this play: Defined-risk, aligns with flow, after earnings.
Debit: $38.34-$46.86
Max loss: $46.86
BE: $1646.86
Mgmt: Hold through earnings, exit at target.
Moderate bullish, defined risk.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-17 $1640.00 call
Buy 1640 call.
Why this play: Unlimited upside, high confidence.
Debit: $120.15-$146.85
Max loss: $146.85
BE: $1786.85
Mgmt: Stop at 1585, exit on spike.
Aggressive bullish.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $1510.00/$1440.00 put spread
Sell 1510/1440 put spread.
Why this play: Credit, but liquidity low, before earnings.
Credit: $13.95-$17.05
Max loss: $52.95
BE: $1492.95
Mgmt: Close if spot nears 1510. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Bullish, short duration.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF ASML spot pulls back to $1585 support and holds → THEN enter Bull Call Spread: buy 2026-07-17 $1600/$1700 call spread
IFIF ASML spot breaks above $1698 resistance with volume → THEN enter Long Call: buy 2026-07-17 $1640 call
Exit Triggers
EXITIF ASML spot closes below $1585 → THEN exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Moderate bullish, 8/10 confidence. GEX strong, spot above MP $1550. Key support $1585, resistance $1698. Multi-week hold through Jul 15 earnings. Use bull call spread for defined risk; long call for aggression. Invalidation below $1585. Risk: gamma flip at $1400.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.