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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $265.01EOD only

Max Pain

$260.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.47

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-5.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.58

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward bias toward the $208-$210 max pain cluster. Confidence: 5/10. Massive positive GEX ($+354M) creates a powerful pinning force, but net negative premium flow and spot above max pain create a tug-of-war. Expect range-bound trade with a slight gravitational pull upward toward $210.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +2 for massive positive GEX (pinning); +1 for rising max pain trend; -1 for net negative premium flow (-$15.6M); -1 for spot above nearest MP.

Supports: GEX +$354.0M (strong pinning), DEX +114.1M shares (dealer long delta), rising max pain trend to $210+.
Conflicts: Net premium -$15.6M (bearish flow), spot $209.77 above nearest MP ($205), P/C vol 0.96 (balanced).

📊GEX magnitude more than doubled to +$354M, pinning force intensified.

⚠️Spot now above nearest max pain ($205), creating a mild downward pull.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 36.7% — normal for AMZN. Premium selling has edge, especially against rich May expiry (43.5%).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$354.0M — extremely strong pinning force. Dealers are massively long gamma, suppressing volatility and anchoring spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium -$15.6M shows put buying dominance, but P/C OI 0.59 indicates structural call positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above — spot $209.77 is above the nearest max pain cluster ($205-$208), suggesting a mild gravitational pull downward toward that zone.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $205 to $245 over 23 expirations, and massive positive GEX is a structural feature. The pinning dynamic is persistent, not a single-week event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$209.40$210.15

GEX pin dominates; break above $210.15 (2d EM high) invalidates bearish lean.

Next 1 week

$203.98$215.56

Pin strongest within weekly EM; upside capped by $225 OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$198.90$220.65

Rising max pain trend to $210+ supports gradual upward pressure; tail risk if pin fails below $200.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $205 (2026-03-23); $208 (2026-03-25); $208 (2026-03-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $209.40/$210.15; 1w $203.98/$215.56

Support:

Resistance: $275.00 · $300.00 · $250.00

Structural: **Massive call OI walls at $225, $250, $275, $300** create structural resistance caps. No significant put OI floors below $200, leaving downside open.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+354.0M

DEX: +114.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers massively long gamma across strikes. A move ±2% would see continued stabilizing, mean-reverting hedging, reinforcing the $205-$215 range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 36.7% — normal for AMZN. Premium selling has edge.

Term structure: **Humped with a major kink at 5/01 (29 DTE, IV 43.5%)**, pricing an event (likely earnings). Steep drop after May. Near-term IV ~25-32%.

Skew: **~12 vol-point differential between May (43.5%) and April (31.7%) expiries** — supports reverse calendar spreads (sell May, buy April).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$15.6M bearish; P/C vol 0.96 (balanced volume), P/C OI 0.59 (call-heavy OI).

Directional prints: $245P flow -$38.1M — massive premium paid for puts, consistent with hedging. $210C flow +$5.3M — premium collected on calls, consistent with selling. Given net negative premium, **bought puts** dominate the directional signal.

Unusual: $187.5P 4/06 vol 2,612 vs OI 119 (21.9x) at IV 42.4% — likely deep OTM protective put purchase or premium selling. High IV suggests bought hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin breaks** if spot moves decisively outside $204-$215 weekly EM range.

!**May 1 expiry IV kink (43.5%)** suggests an imminent catalyst (earnings); vol crush post-event is a risk for long premium in May.

!**Net premium flow turned more negative (-$15.6M vs -$8.4M)**, indicating increased put buying/hedging that could pressure spot.

!**Lack of put OI support** below $200 leaves downside open if pin fails.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $205/$200 put spread & $215/$220 call spread, 4/17 expiry (15 DTE).	VIX spike or break outside weekly EM range.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $205 put or $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.	Accelerated sell-off below max pain.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $215 or $220 call, 4/17 expiry.	Strong rally above call strike.
Calendar spread (Reverse)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/01 $210 call (IV 43.5%), buy 4/17 $210 call (IV 31.7%), directionally neutral.	Spot moves far from strike; event volatility.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $207.5 put / sell $202.5 put, 4/08 expiry (tactical).	Strong GEX pin resists downward move; time decay.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $212.5 calls, 4/17 expiry.	Rich IV, OI walls, and pinning create headwinds.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $200 call, sell April 2024 $215 call against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits premium.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Massive positive GEX creates fierce mean reversion.
Long stock	Moderate	Entry on dip toward $205-$207.5, with a stop below $202.5.	Upside capped by pinning and OI walls.

Top Plays

Iron Condor (15 DTE)

Sell 4/17 $205/$200 put spread & $215/$220 call spread.

Capitalizes on the intensified GEX pinning and elevated IV. Strikes align with weekly EM bounds ($203.98/$215.56) and key OI levels. The 15 DTE provides time for the pin to work while capturing accelerated theta decay.

Credit: $1.00-$1.30

Max loss: $4.00

BE: $201.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Adjust if spot breaches $208 or $212. Exit all if spot closes outside $204-$216.

Defined-risk premium sellers seeking to play the range-bound, high-vol pinning regime.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell 5/01 $210 Call, Buy 4/17 $210 Call.

Exploits the ~12 vol-point differential between the event-priced May expiry and April. Benefits from vol crush post-catalyst (earnings) or from spot pinning near $210. The longer DTE on the short leg (29 vs 15) improves edge by capturing higher theta decay from rich IV.

Credit: $2.80-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close when May/Apr IV spread compresses by 30-40%. Exit if spot moves >$8 from $210.

Volatility traders comfortable with pin risk; better than a near-term calendar due to the significant IV richness in May.

Cash-Secured Put at Max Pain

Sell 4/17 $205 Put.

Targets the core of the max pain cluster with a strike at the pin. High IV provides attractive premium, and the massive GEX defends against a rapid drop. The 15 DTE provides time for the pin to work and for theta decay to accelerate. The extra time (vs a weekly) improves risk/reward by giving the pin more time to hold and reducing gamma risk near expiry.

Credit: $4.20-$4.80

Max loss: N/A

BE: $200.80

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot closes below $202.5. Take profit at 70% of max credit.

Traders willing to own stock at a discount to current price, or defined-risk premium sellers.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $215 (weekly EM high / call OI wall) → Sell $215/$220 call spread, 4/17 expiry.

IFSpot dips to tag $205 (nearest max pain) → Sell $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $200 (breaks below nearest valid support strike) → Exit all short premium positions (iron condors, CSPs).

EXITMay 1 ATM IV drops below 38% (post-event vol crush) → Close reverse calendar spread for profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Extremely strong GEX pinning ($+354M) creates a mean-reverting range, anchored near max pain $205-$210. The regime favors selling premium in the 15-45 DTE window. Invalidation is a close below $200. Top plays: 1) Iron Condor (best for defined-risk range trade), 2) Reverse Calendar (best for vol traders exploiting May event premium), 3) CSP at $205 (best for stock accumulators/premium sellers).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.