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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $265.01EOD only

Max Pain

$260.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.47

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-5.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.58

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward bias toward the $207.50-$208 max pain cluster. Confidence: 6/10. Strong positive GEX ($+159.8M) creates a powerful pinning force, but net negative premium flow and elevated IV create conflicting signals. Expect range-bound trade with a slight gravitational pull upward.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 6; +2 for massive positive GEX (pinning); +1 spot at MP; -1 for net negative premium flow; -1 for elevated IV (38.7%).

Supports: GEX +$159.8M (strong pinning), spot at max pain ($205), DEX +111.4M shares (dealer long delta).
Conflicts: Net premium -$8.4M (bearish flow), IV 38.7% elevated, P/C vol 0.73 shows put volume dominance.

📌Spot pinned exactly at nearest max pain ($205); GEX magnitude increased 80% vs prior report.

⚠️Net premium flow remains negative, indicating institutional put buying/hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 38.7% — elevated but normal for AMZN. Premium selling has edge on rich pockets (e.g., May expiry >45%).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$159.8M — extremely strong pinning force. Dealers are massively long gamma, suppressing volatility and anchoring spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium -$8.4M shows put buying dominance, but P/C OI 0.58 indicates structural call positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

At — spot $205.80 is at the $205 max pain for nearest expiry, maximizing pinning gravity.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $205 to $215+ across 23 expirations, and massive positive GEX is a structural feature, not a single-week event. The pinning dynamic is persistent.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$201.72$209.88

GEX pin dominates; break below $201.72 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$198.53$213.08

Pin strongest within weekly EM; upside capped by $225 OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$192.98$218.63

Rising max pain trend to $210+ supports gradual upward pressure; tail risk if pin fails.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $205 (2026-03-23); $208 (2026-03-25); $208 (2026-03-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $201.72/$209.88; 1w $198.53/$213.08

Support:

Resistance: $275.00 · $300.00 · $250.00

Structural: **Massive call OI walls at $225, $250, $275, $300** create structural resistance caps. No significant put OI floors below $200, leaving downside open.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+159.8M

DEX: +111.4M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers massively long gamma across strikes. A move ±2% would see continued stabilizing, mean-reverting hedging, reinforcing the range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 38.7% — elevated but typical for AMZN. Premium selling has edge.

Term structure: **Humped with a major kink at 5/01 (32 DTE, IV 45.4%)**, pricing an event (likely earnings). Steep drop after May. Near-term IV ~33-36%.

Skew: **~10 vol-point differential between May (45.4%) and April (35.4%) expiries** — supports reverse calendar spreads (sell May, buy April).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$8.4M bearish; P/C vol 0.73 (put volume dominance), P/C OI 0.58 (call-heavy OI).

Directional prints: $205P 4/01 vol 7,311 vs OI 499 (14.7x) at IV 32.6% — could be opening protective puts or selling premium. Given net negative premium, **bought puts** are more consistent. $217.5C 4/06 vol 2,261 vs OI 269 (8.4x) at IV 29.2% — likely premium selling.

Unusual: Deep OTM $225P 4/02 vol 1,201 vs OI 30 (40x) at IV 54.8% — likely tail hedge purchase.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin breaks** if spot moves decisively outside $198-$213 weekly EM range.

!**May 1 expiry IV kink (45.4%)** suggests an imminent catalyst (earnings); vol crush post-event is a risk for long premium in May.

!**Net premium flow remains negative**, indicating persistent put buying/hedging that could pressure spot if sustained.

!**Lack of put OI support** below $200 leaves downside open if pin fails.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $200/$195 put spread & $215/$220 call spread, 4/17 expiry (18 DTE).	VIX spike or break outside weekly EM range.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $205 put or $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.	Accelerated sell-off below max pain.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $215 or $220 call, 4/17 expiry.	Strong rally above call strike.
Calendar spread (Reverse)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/01 $210 call (IV 45.4%), buy 4/17 $210 call (IV 35.4%), directionally neutral.	Spot moves far from strike; event volatility.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $205 put / sell $200 put, 4/01 expiry (tactical).	Strong GEX pin resists downward move; time decay.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $210 calls, 4/17 expiry.	Rich IV, OI walls, and pinning create headwinds.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $200 call, sell April 2024 $215 call against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits premium.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Massive positive GEX creates fierce mean reversion.
Long stock	Moderate	Entry on dip toward $202.5-$205, with a stop below $197.5.	Upside capped by pinning and OI walls.

Top Plays

Iron Condor (18 DTE)

Sell 4/17 $200/$195 put spread & $215/$220 call spread.

Capitalizes on the extremely strong GEX pinning and elevated IV. Strikes align with weekly EM bounds ($198.53/$213.08) and key OI levels ($215/$220). The 18 DTE provides time for the pin to work while capturing accelerated theta decay.

Credit: $1.00-$1.20

Max loss: $4.00

BE: $201.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Adjust if spot breaches $208 or $212. Exit all if spot closes outside $198-$213.

Defined-risk premium sellers seeking to play the range-bound, high-vol pinning regime.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell 5/01 $210 Call, Buy 4/17 $210 Call.

Exploits the ~10 vol-point differential between the event-priced May expiry and April. Benefits from vol crush post-catalyst (earnings) or from spot pinning near $210. The longer DTE on the short leg (32 vs 18) improves edge by capturing higher theta decay from rich IV.

Credit: $2.50-$3.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close when May/Apr IV spread compresses by 30-40%. Exit if spot moves >$8 from $210.

Volatility traders comfortable with pin risk; better than a near-term calendar due to the significant IV richness in May.

Cash-Secured Put at Max Pain

Sell 4/17 $205 Put.

Targets the core of the max pain cluster with a strike at the pin. High IV provides attractive premium, and the massive GEX defends against a rapid drop. The 18 DTE provides time for the pin to work and for theta decay to accelerate. The extra time (vs a weekly) improves risk/reward by giving the pin more time to hold and reducing gamma risk near expiry.

Credit: $4.50-$5.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: $200.00

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot closes below $202.5. Take profit at 70% of max credit.

Traders willing to own stock at a discount to current price, or defined-risk premium sellers.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $215 (weekly EM high / call OI wall) → Sell $215/$220 call spread, 4/17 expiry.

IFSpot dips to tag $202.5 (just above 2d EM low) → Sell $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $197.5 (breaks below nearest valid support strike) → Exit all short premium positions (iron condors, CSPs).

EXITMay 1 ATM IV drops below 40% (post-event vol crush) → Close reverse calendar spread for profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Extremely strong GEX pinning ($+159.8M) creates a mean-reverting range, anchored at max pain $205. The regime favors selling premium in the 18-45 DTE window. Invalidation is a close below $197.50. Top plays: 1) Iron Condor (best for defined-risk range trade), 2) Reverse Calendar (best for vol traders exploiting May event premium), 3) CSP at $205 (best for stock accumulators/premium sellers).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.