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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $265.01EOD only

Max Pain

$260.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.47

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-5.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.58

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 26, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward bias toward the $210-$215 max pain cluster. Confidence: 5.5/10. The regime is dominated by strong positive GEX ($+88.9M) pinning, but spot is now above max pain and flow is mixed with net negative premium. Expect choppy, range-bound trade with a slight gravitational pull upward toward $210.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5.5 holds. +GEX supports pinning, but mixed flow and spot above MP create conflicting signals, limiting directional conviction.

Supports: GEX +$88.9M (pinning), rising max pain trend ($205 → $210), P/C OI 0.71 (call-heavy positioning).
Conflicts: Net premium -$6.9M (bearish flow), spot 1.6% above nearest MP, P/C vol 0.87 (balanced near-term).

📌Spot moved down into the MP cluster; pinning force now stronger.

⚠️Net premium flow flipped negative vs. prior day.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 39.1% — elevated but normal for AMZN. Premium selling has edge on rich pockets (e.g., May expiry at 43.7%).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$88.9M — strong pinning force remains, though magnitude reduced from prior day. Dealers hedge to suppress volatility.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium -$6.9M shows put buying dominance, but P/C OI 0.71 indicates structural call positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above — spot $208.28 is above the $207.50 MP for nearest expirations, creating a slight upward gravitational pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $205 to $220 over 20 expirations, and positive GEX is consistent across expirations. The pinning dynamic is structural, not a single-week event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$204.42$212.14

GEX pin dominates; break below $204.42 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$200.45$216.10

Pin strongest within weekly EM; upside capped by $215-$220 OI.

Next 2 weeks

$196.48$220.08

Rising max pain trend to $215 supports gradual upward pressure.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $205 (2026-03-23); $208 (2026-03-25); $208 (2026-03-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $204.42/$212.14; 1w $200.45/$216.10

Support:

Resistance: $260.00 · $235.00 · $250.00

Structural: **Massive call OI walls at $220, $225, $230, $250, $260, $300** create structural resistance. No significant put OI floors below $200.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+88.9M

DEX: +98.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Positive GEX across strikes; dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility. A move ±2% would see continued stabilizing, mean-reverting hedging.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 39.1% — elevated but typical for AMZN. No direct VIX comparison provided.

Term structure: **Humped with a major kink at 5/01 (36 DTE, IV 43.7%)**, pricing an event (likely earnings). Steep drop after May. Near-term IV ~31-36%.

Skew: **~10 vol-point differential between May (43.7%) and April (33.8%) expiries** — supports reverse calendar spreads (sell May, buy April).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$6.9M bearish; P/C vol 0.87 (balanced), P/C OI 0.71 (call-heavy).

Directional prints: $210P 3/27 vol 30,951 vs OI 5,498 (5.6x) at IV 18.8% — could be opening protective puts or selling premium. Given net negative premium, **bought puts** are more consistent. $215P 4/01 vol 1,041 vs OI 101 (10.3x) at low IV 21.8% — likely premium selling.

Unusual: Deep ITM $100/$105/$120C trades with multi-million net premium — likely financing/roll activity, not directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin breaks** if spot moves decisively outside $200-$216 range.

!**May 1 expiry IV kink (43.7%)** suggests an imminent catalyst; vol crush post-event is a risk for long premium in May.

!**Net premium flow flipped negative**, indicating increased put buying/hedging that could pressure spot.

!**Lack of put OI support** below $200 leaves downside open if pin fails.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $200/$195 put spread & $215/$220 call spread, 4/17 expiry (22 DTE).	VIX spike or break outside weekly EM range.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $205 put or $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.	Accelerated sell-off below max pain.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $215 or $220 call, 4/17 expiry.	Strong rally above call strike.
Calendar spread (Reverse)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/01 $210 call (IV 43.7%), buy 4/17 $210 call (IV 33.8%), directionally neutral.	Spot moves far from strike; event volatility.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $210 put / sell $205 put, 4/01 expiry (tactical).	Strong GEX pin resists downward move; time decay.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $215 calls, 4/17 expiry.	Rich IV, OI walls, and pinning create headwinds.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $200 call, sell April 2024 $215 call against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits premium.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Positive GEX creates fierce mean reversion.
Long stock	Moderate	Entry on dip toward $205-$207, with a stop below $200.	Upside capped by pinning and OI walls.

Top Plays

Iron Condor (22 DTE)

Sell 4/17 $200/$195 put spread & $215/$220 call spread.

Capitalizes on strong GEX pinning and elevated IV. Strikes align with weekly EM bounds ($200.45/$216.10) and key OI levels ($215/$220). The 22 DTE provides time for the pin to work while capturing accelerated theta decay.

Credit: $1.00-$1.20

Max loss: $4.00

BE: 201.00 / 219.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Adjust if spot breaches $208 or $214. Exit all if VIX spikes >30.

Defined-risk premium sellers seeking to play the range-bound, high-vol pinning regime.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell 5/01 $210 Call, Buy 4/17 $210 Call.

Exploits the 10 vol-point differential between the event-priced May expiry and April. Benefits from vol crush post-catalyst or from spot pinning near $210. The longer DTE on the short leg (36 vs 22) improves edge by capturing higher theta decay from rich IV.

Credit: $2.20-$2.70

Max loss: Unlimited (defined by long call)

BE: Complex; manage on vol spread.

Mgmt: Close when May/Apr IV spread compresses by 30-40%. Exit if spot moves >$8 from $210.

Volatility traders comfortable with pin risk; better than a near-term calendar due to the significant IV richness in May.

Cash-Secured Put at Support

Sell 4/17 $205 Put.

Targets the core of the max pain cluster with a strike at strong support. High IV provides attractive premium, and the GEX pin defends against a rapid drop. The 22 DTE provides time for the pin to work and for theta decay to accelerate.

Credit: $4.80-$5.30

Max loss: Stock assignment at net cost ~$199.50

BE: $199.50

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot closes below $203. Take profit at 70% of max credit.

Traders willing to own stock at a discount to current price, or defined-risk premium sellers.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $215 (weekly EM high / call OI wall) → Sell $215/$220 call spread, 4/17 expiry.

IFSpot dips to tag $205 (max pain support) → Sell $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $200 (breaks weekly EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (iron condors, CSPs).

EXITMay 1 ATM IV drops below 38% (post-event vol crush) → Close reverse calendar spread for profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Strong GEX pinning creates a mean-reverting range, with a slight gravitational pull from spot ($208.28) up toward the $210-$215 max pain cluster. The regime favors selling premium in the 22-45 DTE window. Invalidation is a close below $200. Top plays: 1) Iron Condor (best for defined-risk range trade), 2) Reverse Calendar (best for vol traders exploiting May event premium), 3) CSP at $205 (best for stock accumulators).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.