Home Options AMZNReports

AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $265.01EOD only

Max Pain

$260.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.47

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-5.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.58

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 25, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a gravitational pull toward max pain near $207.50-$210. Confidence: 7/10. The regime is dominated by strong positive GEX pinning ($210.6M) and bullish flow, but spot sits 3.3% above max pain, creating a mean-reverting headwind. Expect choppy, range-bound trade with a slight downward bias toward the pin cluster.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 holds. Strong +GEX and bullish flow support a pinning thesis, but the distance above MP and elevated VIX temper conviction for a clean directional move.

Supports: Massive +$210.6M GEX (strong pinning), +$33.6M net premium (bullish flow), P/C vol 0.77 (call dominance).
Conflicts: Spot $211.71 is 3.3% above max pain cluster ($205-$210), VIX 25.3 indicates elevated macro volatility.

📌Strong GEX pin ($210.6M) conflicts with spot above MP

📈Net premium +$33.6M bullish but spot may need to mean-revert first

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 35.5% vs VIX 25.3 — rich, favoring premium sellers.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$210.6M — powerful mean-reverting force, dealers hedge by buying dips and selling rallies.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$33.6M, P/C 0.77 — institutional flow is net bullish, buying calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $211.71 is above max pain cluster ($205-$210) — creates downward gravitational pull toward pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $205 to $215 over 20 expirations, GEX sign is strongly positive, and flow regime is consistent. The pinning dynamic is structural, not just a weekly event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$211.04$212.39

GEX pin and spot above MP favor a drift down to the $207.50-$210 cluster. Break above $212.39 (2d EM high) invalidates bearish lean.

Next 1 week

$205.24$218.19

Pinning force strongest; range defined by weekly EM. Downside limited by bullish flow, upside capped by OI walls.

Next 2 weeks

$200.01$223.41

Max pain trend rises to $215 by April; bullish flow may support a gradual climb if pin holds. Break below $200 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $205 (2026-03-23); $208 (2026-03-25); $208 (2026-03-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $211.04/$212.39; 1w $205.24/$218.19

Support:

Resistance: $260.00 · $250.00 · $230.00

Structural: **Call OI walls at $225, $230, $250, $260, $300, $310** create massive structural resistance. No significant put OI floors identified, leaving downside open below $210.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+210.6M

DEX: +99.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Gamma flip N/A due to positive GEX across strikes. Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility. A move ±2% from spot ($207.50-$216) would see dealers continue to hedge in a stabilizing, mean-reverting manner.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 35.5% vs VIX 25.3 — AMZN vol is rich relative to market, favoring selling AMZN-specific premium.

Term structure: **Humped with a major kink at 5/01 (37 DTE, IV 41.6%)**, likely pricing an event (earnings). Steep drop after May. Near-term (2-30 DTE) IV in 27-33% range.

Skew: **~8-9 vol-point differential between May (41.6%) and April (33%) expiries** — supports May calendar spreads (sell May, buy April).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$33.6M bullish; P/C vol 0.77, P/C OI 0.72.

Directional prints: $225C 3/30 vol 8,025 vs OI 28,777 — could be opening or closing; $220C 3/30 vol 5,157 vs OI 28,445 — similar. High volume vs. high OI suggests potential roll activity or fresh bullish positioning. Given net premium direction, **bought calls** are more consistent.

Unusual: Deep ITM $170/$175C 3/25 trades at 200%+ IV — likely complex position adjustments or financing trades, not directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin breaks** if spot moves decisively outside $205-$218 range, triggering accelerated dealer hedging.

!**VIX at 25.3** indicates macro volatility risk; a spike could overwhelm the stock-specific pinning dynamic.

!**Major call OI walls ($225-$310)** represent significant overhead supply if breached, but also act as a magnet for pinning.

!**May 1 expiry IV kink (41.6%)** suggests an upcoming catalyst; vol crush post-event is a risk for long premium positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Strong	Sell $205/$200 put spread & $220/$225 call spread, 4/17 expiry (30 DTE).	VIX spike or break outside weekly EM range.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $205 put or $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.	Accelerated sell-off below max pain cluster.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $220 or $225 call, 4/17 or 4/24 expiry.	Strong rally above call strike, missing upside.
Calendar spread (Reverse)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/01 $210 call (IV 41.6%), buy 4/17 $210 call (IV 32.5%), directionally neutral.	Spot moves far from strike, eating into theta.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $210 put / sell $205 put, 3/30 or 4/01 expiry (tactical).	Strong GEX pin resists downward move; time decay in high IV.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $215 or $220 calls, 4/17 expiry (need time for pin to resolve).	Rich IV, spot above MP, and OI walls create headwinds.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $200 call, sell April 2024 $220 call against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits short call premium.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Strong positive GEX and bullish flow create fierce mean reversion.
Long stock	Moderate	Entry on dip toward $207-$208, with a stop below $205.	Immediate upside capped by pinning and OI walls.

Top Plays

Iron Condor (30 DTE)

Sell 4/17 $205/$200 put spread & $220/$225 call spread.

Capitalizes on the strong GEX pinning and rich IV. Strikes align with weekly EM bounds ($205.24/$218.19) and key OI levels, providing a wide, high-probability range.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: 203.90 / 221.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Adjust/close if spot breaches $207 or $218. Exit all if VIX >30.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection in a range-bound, high-vol environment.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell 5/01 $210 Call, Buy 4/17 $210 Call.

Exploits the 9 vol-point differential between May (event) and April expiries. Benefits from vol crush in the May leg after the catalyst, or from spot pinning near $210. The extra time in the short leg (May) improves edge by capturing higher theta decay from rich IV.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: Unlimited (defined by long call)

BE: Complex; manage on vol spread contraction.

Mgmt: Close when May/Apr IV spread compresses by 30-40%. Exit if spot moves >$10 from $210.

Volatility traders comfortable with pin risk; better than a near-term calendar because the short leg's IV is significantly richer.

Cash-Secured Put at Max Pain

Sell 4/17 $205 Put.

Directly targets the max pain cluster ($205-$210) with a strike at strong support. High IV provides attractive premium, and the GEX pin defends against a rapid drop below the strike. The 30 DTE provides time for the pin to work.

Credit: $4.50-$5.00

Max loss: Stock assignment at net cost $200.00-$200.50

BE: $200.50

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot closes below $203. Take profit at 70% of max credit.

Traders willing to own stock at a discount, or defined-risk premium sellers.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $218 (weekly EM high) → Sell $220/$225 call spread, 4/17 expiry.

IFSpot dips to tag $207 (near MP cluster) → Sell $205/$200 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $205 (breaks MP support) → Exit all short premium positions (iron condors, CSPs).

EXITMay/Apr $210 call IV spread (calendar play) compresses to <5 points → Close reverse calendar for profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Strong GEX pinning creates a mean-reverting range, with a slight gravitational pull from spot ($211.71) down toward the max pain cluster ($207.50-$210). The regime favors selling premium in the 30-45 DTE window. Invalidation is a close below $205. Top plays: 1) Iron Condor (best for defined-risk range trade), 2) Reverse Calendar (best for vol traders exploiting the May event premium), 3) CSP at $205 (best for stock accumulators).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.