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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $532.57EOD only
Max Pain
$525.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$18.77
3.5% from close
Price Gap
-7.57
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Low premium
P/C OI
1.19
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMD earnings 39d out, high IV, bullish 80% beat rate, mixed flow with bearish put hedges. Strong GEX alignment but event far out adds uncertainty.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Conflicting signals: call buying at 537.5 for 7/2 (bullish) vs large put buying at 400 for 7/31 (bearish). Max pain pins near $500-$510.
📈80% beat rate historically supports bullish outlook.
⚠️Large 7/31 400 put volume suggests downside hedge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$490.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 9,206 (6.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (39 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$38.63 (7.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$57.07 (10.9%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$70.60 (13.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep upward slope: near-term IV ~64-69%, longer-dated IV ~72-78%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush ~15-20 points for front-week options.

Skew: Put skew elevated; 270 put IV 158% indicates tail hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; beat rate 80% suggests positive surprises.

Directional bias: Bullish (80% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$490.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $482.96/$560.21
3Max pain pins: $525 (2026-06-26); $510 (2026-07-02); $500 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Call 537.5 7/2: 3,957 vol, 37.7x OI, IV 64.5%.

Bullish directional bet, possibly anticipating positive early guidance.

Put 400 7/31: 16,466 vol, 29.5x OI, IV 78.2%.

Large bearish hedge, likely institutional downside protection.

Strategies

Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $500.00/$495.00 put wing and $535.00/$545.00 call wing
Credit: $6.10-$7.45
Max loss: $2.55
Max gain: $7.45
BE: 492.55 / 542.45
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit or before earnings; adjust wings if spot nears strike.
High IV and crush favor short premium; conflicting signals suggest range-bound price action.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money puts and calls to capture IV contraction and time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $500.00 put + sell $540.00 call
Credit: $68.60-$83.85
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $83.85
BE: 416.15 / 623.85
Trigger: Monitor delta exposure; roll untested side if spot approaches strike.
Higher premium than iron condor with similar directional view; benefits from IV crush.
Outperforms: Sells a put and call at wider strikes for increased credit and higher profit potential.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $535.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $500.00 call
Debit: $45.09-$55.11
Max loss: $55.11
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks below invalidation level (490); adjust short strike if IV spikes.
Bullish bias (80% beat rate) with time decay on short leg and long volatility exposure.
Outperforms: Sells a near-term call against a longer-dated long call to fund the position.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $550.00 put + buy $550.00 call
Debit: $115.65-$141.35
Max loss: $141.35
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 408.65 / 691.35
High IV, steep term structure, conflicting flow create convex opportunity.
Outperforms: Buy ATM straddle to profit from large post-earnings move; 80% beat rate supports upside but mixed flow hedges downside.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at 490: break below accelerates selling.
!Put OI floor at 490 (9,206 contracts) but gamma risk if breached.
!Call wall at $550: potential buying pressure if spot rallies.

What to Watch

?537.5 & 522.5 call OI changes for 7/2.
?400 put volume trend; OI growth signals bearish sentiment.
?Spot reaction at 490 support and 525 resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.